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Market Rap 05/10/23 by CTG

SPY / QQQ / Vix

SPY 5 days, hourly candles S&P futures broke yesterdays lows ahead of the next CPI report at 8:30et 409.71 the pre mkt low

411.73 the corresponding futures high

SPY 3 months, daily candles The daily price action continues to tighten within the recent range. We'll see if CPI shakes that range loose. (support)

410.80 the daily 12ema (white)

410.69 the low from yesterday - trading right around there currently

408.64

407.27 open gap

403.74-403.78

403.76 the 50 day MA(blue) (resistance)

412.09 the high from yesterday

413.24-413.87

414.82

415.27 open gap

417.62

QQQ 5 days, hourly candles Nasdaq futures also broke yesterdays low; Currently peeking back above 320.20 the pre mkt low

322.16 the corresponding futures high

QQQ 3 months and 1yr daily candles The strength and resilience continues here, as we go sideways up near the recent highs, with peeks into resistance going back to Aug '22. (resistance)

322.88 the high from yesterday

324.04

326.84

330.49-331.43

334.42 (support)

321.32 the low from the past 2 days

319.60 the daily 12ema

316.21

315.12


May Vix futures 3 months, daily candles Next daily "higher low" set at Mondays low, as the daily bounce gets underway tepidly. Daily bear flag potential if it can't push over that 19.75-20 area

Spot Vix 3 months, daily candles Daily bounce underway here as well

https://www.briefing.com/stock-market-update [BRIEFING.COM] S&P futures vs fair value: -4.00. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: -2.00.The S&P 500 futures are down 4 points and are trading slightly below fair value. The Nasdaq 100 futures are down 2 points and are trading slightly below fair value. The Dow Jones Industrial Average futures are down 61 points and are trading 0.2% below fair value. Stock futures are on the softer side again this morning. Debt ceiling issues continue to draw focus after yesterday's meeting between President Biden and congressional leaders showed no signs that they had moved closer to a deal. The officials plan to meet again on Friday. Some trepidation ahead of the April Consumer Price Index at 8:30 a.m. ET has been another limiting factor this morning. There has been a fair amount of earnings news since yesterday's close that has received mixed reactions from market participants, yet none of the earnings news has swayed the market in a meaningful way. The 2-yr Treasury note yield is up five basis points to 4.05% and the 10-yr note yield is down one basis point to 3.50%. The U.S. Dollar Index is up 0.1% to 101.75. The weekly MBA Mortgage Applications Index rose 6.3% with refinancing applications jumping 10% and purchase applications rising 5%. In corporate news:

  • Airbnb (ABNB 109.71, -17.36, -13.7%): beats by $0.08, beats on revs; guides Q2 revs in-line, Nights and Experiences booked growth to be lower than sales growth; reiterates FY23 adjusted EBITDA margins in-line with FY22

  • Upstart (UPST 19.12, +5.03, +35.7%): misses by $0.77, beats on revs; guides Q2 EPS above consensus, revs above consensus

  • RingCentral (RNG 28.28, +1.78, +6.7%): beats by $0.07, beats on revs; guides Q2 EPS above consensus, revs in-line; raises FY23 EPS above consensus, revs in-line

  • Rivian Automotive (RIVN 14.78, +0.92, +6.6%): beats by $0.33, reports revs in-line; reaffirms FY23 production guidance

  • Twilio (TWLO 46.78, -9.22, -16.5%): beats by $0.26, reports revs in-line; guides Q2 EPS in-line, revs below consensus

  • Wynn Resorts (WYNN 122.45, +0.75, +0.7%): beats by $0.29, beats on revs; reinstates dividend

  • Akamai Tech (AKAM 83.05, +4.17, +5.3%): beats by $0.08, reports revs in-line; guides Q2 EPS above consensus, revs above consensus; guides FY23 EPS above consensus, revs above consensus; provides upside Q2/FY 23 guidance, announces 3% workforce reduction in Q2

  • Electronic Arts (EA 128.50, +3.09, +2.5%): misses by $0.46, beats on revs; guides Q1 EPS below consensus, revs in-line; guides FY24 EPS in-line, revs in-line

  • Affirm (AFRM 11.56, -0.77, -6.3%): beats by $0.15, beats on revs; guides Q4 revs in-line; guides FY23 revs above consensus

  • Dutch Bros (BROS 30.19, -2.26, -7.0%): beats by $0.01, misses on revs; reaffirms FY23 guidance

CPI ESTIMATES JP MORGAN 4.9%

SCOTIABANK 4.9%

NOMURA 4.9%

BARCLAYS 5%

BLOOMBERG 5%

BANK OF AMERICA 5%

GURGAVIN CAPITAL 5%

CREDIT SUISSE 5%

HSBC 5%

TD SECURITIES 5%

UBS 5%

WELLS FARGO 5%

VISA 5.1%

GOLDMAN SACHS 5.1%

CIBC 5.1%

CITI 5.1%

MORGAN STANLEY 5.1% MEDIAN 5%

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