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Market Rap 05/08/23 by CTG

SPY / QQQ / Vix

SPY 5 days, hourly candles S&P futures sideways in the upper third of Fridays range 411.92 the corresponding futures low

413.41 the pre mkt high so far

SPY 3 months, daily candles A strong gap up open Friday saw follow thru all day; as the daily bounce off the recent lower end of the range, above the 50 day MA(blue) got underway. Push back above the daily 12ema(white) also. (resistance)

413.72 the high from Friday

413.87 the FOMC day high

414.82

415.27 small open gap

417.62 (support)

410.41 the 12ema

408.64 the low from Friday

407.27 open gap

403.74-403.78 the recent low

403.17 the 50 day MA

QQQ 5 days, hourly candles Nasdaq futures also trading sideways in the upper third of Fridays range 322.36 the pre mkt low

323.18 the corresponding futures high

QQQ 3 months & 1yr daily candles Peeked into some new 3month highs on Friday, as the daily bounce gets it back above the 12ema(white). After losing the uptrend on 4/25, we saw no follow thru by the bears, and a reversal. Now the bulls are on the verge of reclaiming that uptrend if we see some follow thru over that Friday high. (resistance)

323.76 the high from Friday

326.84 resistance from Aug '22

330.49 " "

331.43 " "

334.42 " " (support)

318.42 the daily 12ema

316.21 the low from Friday

315.05-315.12

314.94 small open gap

309.89

309.45 the 50 day MA(blue)


May Vix futures 3 months, daily candles Friday saw a big vol crush day/reversal of recent momentum as daily consolidation of the move got underway. Starting to peek under Fridays low currently.

Spot Vix 3 months, daily candles Thursdays push above the 20 level saw no staying power, then a big vol crush Friday. Trading in the lower third of Fridays range currently.

https://www.briefing.com/stock-market-update [BRIEFING.COM] S&P futures vs fair value: +7.50. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: -6.00.The S&P 500 futures are up 7 points and are trading 0.2% above fair value. The Nasdaq 100 futures are down 6 points and are trading slightly fair value. The Dow Jones Industrial Average futures are up 78 points and are trading 0.2% above fair value. Stock futures have been mixed this morning, yet skew somewhat more positive. Market participants are waiting to see if there will be any follow through on Friday's rally. This week also brings another batch of potentially market-moving events. Namely, the Senior Loan Officer Opinion Survey will be released today, the Consumer Price Index (CPI) on Wednesday, and the Producer Price Index (PPI) on Thursday. Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen warned of "economic chaos" if the debt ceiling is not raised, according to CNBC. This comes ahead of President Biden's meeting with House Speaker McCarthy and other Congressional leaders on May 9. The 2-yr note yield is up five basis points to 3.96% and the 10-yr note yield is up three basis points to 3.46%. Oil prices are sharply higher, up 2.8% to $73.32/bbl. Economic data today is limited to the Wholesale Inventories report for March (Briefing.com consensus 0.1%; prior 0.1%) at 10:00 a.m. ET. In corporate news:

  • PacWest (PACW 7.95, +2.19, +37.9%) and Western Alliance (WAL 30.27, +3.05, +11.2%): continued rally effort in regional bank stocks after big gains on Friday; separately, PacWest announced a cut in its dividend to $0.01 per share from $0.25

  • Alcoa (AA 36.95, +0.80, +2.2%): JPMorgan initiated coverage with an Overweight rating

  • Spectrum Brands (SPB 76.97, +6.60, +9.4%): SPB and the DOJ reach a settlement regarding the HHI Acquisition

  • Baxter (BAX 46.21, +0.16, +0.4%): Private equity firms are interested in BAX's biopharma unit, according to Reuters

  • Estee Lauder (EL 211.06, +7.52, +3.7%): Nelson Peltz mulling shakeup at Estee Lauder, according to NY Post

  • Occidental Petroleum (OXY 60.35, -0.29, -0.5%): Warren Buffett says he will not take full control of Occidental, according to CNBC

  • Tyson Foods (TSN 55.69, -5.00, -8.2%): misses by $0.84, misses on revs

  • Pentair (PNR 59.00, +1.13, +2.0%): upgraded to Buy from Neutral at UBS

  • American Airlines (AAL 14.31, +0.44, +3.2%): upgraded to Overweight from Neutral at JPMorgan

  • Catalent (CTLT 38.10, -9.65, -20.2%): delays third quarter results and conference call; expects to significantly reduce both its fiscal 2023 net revenue and Adjusted EBITDA guidance by more than $400 million each


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