Market Rap 05/05/22 by CTG
SPY / QQQ / Vix
SPY 5 days, hourly candles S&P futures saw some consolidation early this AM, still trading within the upper third of yesterdays big range. Watching for how much of yesterdays move this gives back today - 1/3, 1/2, more etc 429.31 the corresponding futures high
425.48 the corresponding futures low
SPY 3months, daily candles Massive move up yesterday after the Fed/Powell presser with fears of an ultra aggressive Fed being alleviated in the short term; (The Fed "is not actively considering a 75-basis-point rate hike," Powell said at the post-meeting press conference, although he also said 50-basis-point increases were on the table for the next couple of meetings) Daily "lower high" area from 4/28 being tested, and that's where bulls will ultimately want to get over, to break the daily downtrend and start repairing some of the chart damage.(resistance)
429.66 the high from yesterday (429.64 the 4/28 high, watching today for follow thru, or a rejection and inside bar within yesterdays wide range; If so does it give back 1/3 of yesterday, 1/2, more etc)
436.37 the 50 day MA
438.08 after that (support)
425.57 the daily 12ema which we surged thru yesterday
413.71 yesterdays low
QQQ 5 days, hourly candles Nasdaq futures similar story 330.23 the corresponding futures high
326.02 the corresponding futures low
QQQ 3 months, daily candles Same story as the S&P, testing the daily downtrend and last "lower high" area from 4/28, watching for any follow thru today, or how the consolidation of the move looks (does it give back 1/3, 1/2, more etc) Highest volume we've seen in the last couple months. (resistance)
330.29 the high from yesterday (329.89 the 4/28 high, and last daily "lower high" area within the context of the current downtrend)
341.34 the 50 day MA (support)
326.91 the daily 12ema (white line)
324.62 volume profile support
322ish area would be around the 50% retrace of yesterdays move
313.89 the low from yesterday
May Vix futures 3 months, daily candles The recent vol crush we've seen saw big follow thru down yesterday as some shorter term fears of the Fed get alleviated
Spot Vix 3 months, daily candles Similar story here, broke the recent 28ish "higher low" area, and now trading in the mid 20s instead of the upper 20s; Things wont be quite as spicy as when we were pushing 30, but mid 20s is still elevated; whippage and movement both directions should be expected
% above the 200day...
Dollar getting back much of that big flush here $DXY Hourly, last 5 days
DXY zoomed out....weekly
https://www.briefing.com/stock-market-update Futures peel back relief rally 05-May-22 07:55 ET Market is Closed [BRIEFING.COM] S&P futures vs fair value: -20.00. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: -118.50. The S&P 500 futures are peeling back yesterday's relief rally and currently trade 20 points, or 0.5%, below fair value. Yesterday, the market was relieved to hear that the Fed was not considering hiking rates by 75 basis points in coming meetings, preferring instead 50-basis-point increases in the next two meetings. On a related note, the Bank of England on Thursday increased its Bank Rate by 25 basis points to 1.00%, as expected. Some of the enthusiasm has been dialed back this morning, partly because of profit-taking interest from cautious-minded investors and an understanding that the Fed is more concerned with inflation than economic growth right now. In addition, Treasury yields are creeping higher after dropping in yesterday's session while investors digest some mixed earnings news, including disappointments from eBay (EBAY 50.22, -4.20, -7.7%) and Etsy (ETSY 95.50, -13.83, -12.7%). The 2-yr yield is up seven basis points to 2.68%, and the 10-yr yield is up four basis points to 2.96%. The U.S. Dollar Index is up 0.6% to 103.22. WTI crude futures are up 0.8% to $108.57/bbl in front of an OPEC+ production decision. On the data front, investors will receive the weekly Initial Claims (Briefing.com consensus 184,000) and Continuing Claims report and preliminary Q1 readings for Productivity (Briefing.com consensus -2.8%) and Unit Labor Costs (Briefing.com consensus 7.3%) at 8:30 a.m. ET. In U.S. Corporate news:
Booking Holdings (BKNG 2315.31, +211.98): +10.1% after beating top and bottom-line estimates.
eBay (EBAY 50.22, -4.20): -7.7% after guiding Q2 EPS and revenue below consensus and lowering its FY22 guidance below consensus. EBAY beat EPS estimates.
Etsy (ETSY 95.50, -13.83): -12.7% after guiding Q2 revenue below consensus, overshadowing its Q1 EPS beat.
Wayfair (W 84.94, -5.82): -6.4% after missing EPS estimates.
Datadog (DDOG 113.76, -5.32): -4.5% despite beating top and bottom-line estimates and issuing upside guidance for Q2 and FY22.