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Market Rap 05/04/23 by CTG

SPY / QQQ / Vix

SPY 5 days, hourly candles The S&P continued flushing after the close, after renewed banking fears regarding PACW looking for a buyer 405.03 the corresponding futures low

409.15 the corresponding futures high

SPY 3 months, daily candles Initial optimism following the Fed indicating a pause in rate hikes reversed by the close, as we flushed back down thru the 12ema(white), and closed near Tuesdays lows. Trading under those lows/yesterdays lows currently as the small gap down open shapes up. (support)

406.74

403.78

402.80 the 50 day MA(blue) (resistance)

413.87 the high from yesterday

414.82

415.27 small open gap

417.62

QQQ 5 days, hourly candles The Nasdaq continued flushing after hours following the close, then saw an hourly oversold bounce back into the middle of yesterdays range. Currently trading around where we closed yesterday. 316 the after hours low from yesterday, before futures opened

319.01 the corresponding futures high

QQQ 3 months, daily candles Threatening to push back under the daily 12ema(white) and lose some short term momentum, but the recent gains and relative outperformance have held up pretty well here so far. (support)

317.18 the low from yesterday - currently trading a tad above that level

315.05

314.94 small open gap

309.89

308.49 the 50 day MA(blue) (resistance)

317.87 that 12ema

322.47 the high from yesterday

323.63

May Vix futures 3 months, daily candles Seeing some follow thru after yesterdays reversal/bounce post FOMC; Backing off initially against the recent highs from 4/25-4/26

Spot Vix 3months, daily candles Another test of that 20 area on deck

$DXY 3months, daily candles The dollar staying weak so far, testing the recent lower end

https://www.briefing.com/stock-market-update The S&P 500 futures are down 14 points and are trading 0.3% below fair value. The Nasdaq 100 futures are down 10 points and are trading slightly below fair value. The Dow Jones Industrial Average futures are down 118 points and are trading 0.3% below fair value. Stock futures are weak on the heels of yesterday's FOMC decision and with concerns over the regional bank industry back at the fore. PacWest (PACW) shares plunged on a Bloomberg report that the bank is mulling strategic options including sale. Relative strength in some mega cap stocks is offering some support to the Nasdaq 100 futures, presumably driven by some flight to safety buying interest. Amazon.com (AMZN), Microsoft (MSFT), Tesla (TSLA), and Alphabet (GOOG) are all standouts in that regard. The Hong Kong Monetary Authority followed the FOMC rate hike with a 25-bps increase to 5.50% and the Norges Bank raised its deposit rate by 25 bps to 3.25%, as expected. The European Central Bank is also expected to raise its key lending rates at 8:15 ET. Treasury yields are sharply lower. The 2-yr note yield is down 15 basis points to 3.80% and the 10-yr note yield is down four basis points to 3.35%. Market participants will receive the following economic data today: 8:30 ET: Preliminary Q1 Productivity (Briefing.com consensus -0.1%; prior 1.7%), preliminary Q1 Unit Labor Costs (Briefing.com consensus 3.9%; prior 3.2%), March Trade Balance (Briefing.com consensus -$68.7 bln; prior -$70.50 bln), weekly Initial Claims (Briefing.com consensus 245,000; prior 230,000), and Continuing Claims (prior 1.858 mln) 10:30 ET: Weekly natural gas inventories (prior +79 bcf) In corporate news:

  • PacWest (PACW 4.200, -2.2200, -34.6%): mulling strategic options including sale, according to Bloomberg

  • Peloton (PTON 8.79, -0.04, -0.5%): misses by $0.31, beats on revs; guides Q4 revs above consensus

  • Wayfair (W 34.63, +3.34, +10.7%): beats by $0.58, beats on revs; expects to have positive adjusted EBITDA in Q2

  • Qualcomm (QCOM 104.18, -8.65, -7.7%): misses by $0.01, beats on revs; guides Q3 EPS below consensus, revs below consensus

  • First Horizon (FHN 8.65, -6.40, -42.5%): Toronto-Dominion Bank and First Horizon (FHN) agree to terminate their previously announced merger; TD to make a $200 mln payment to FHN

  • Marvell (MRVL 39.01, -0.51, -1.3%): appoints CEO Matt Murphy as Chair of the Board, effective June 16; succeeds Rick Hill who is retiring

  • Moderna (MRNA 131.49, +1.35, +1.0%): beats by $1.93, beats on revs

  • Paramount Global (PARA 19.74, -3.15, -13.8%): misses by $0.09, misses on revs

  • Option Care Health (OPCH 26.98, -5.81, -17.7%): to acquire Amedisys (AMED) in all-stock deal worth $3.6 bln

  • SolarEdge Technologies (SEDG 292.50, +28.68, +10.9%): beats by $0.95, beats on revs; guides Q2 revs in-line


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