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Market Rap 05/03/23 by CTG

SPY / QQQ / Vix

SPY 5 days, hourly candles S&P futures drifting around where they closed the RTH session yesterday 412.02 the pre mkt high so far

410.38 the after hours low from yesterday before futures opened

SPY 3 months, daily candles Daily consolidation got underway with a big drop below the 12ema(white) on volume yesterday; following the next round of "banking crisis not banking crisis" fear. Trading in the middle of yesterdays range currently ahead of the FOMC rate decision and Powell presser at 2et/2:30et. (support)

407.82 the low from yesterday

406.74

403.78

402.62 the 50 day MA(blue) (resistance)

414.82 the high from yesterday

415.27 small open gap

417.62

QQQ 5 days, hourly candles Nasdaq futures also trading sideways, near where they closed yesterday 318.68 the after hours low from yesterday before futures opened

320.36 the pre mkt high so far

QQQ 3 months, daily candles Mondays reversal doji candle confirmed yesterday, as daily consolidation got underway; test of the 12ema(white). (support)

317.97 that daily 12ema

317.61 the low from yesterday

315.05

314.94 small open gap

309.89

308.02 the 50 day MA(blue) (resistance)

322.45 the high from yesterday

323.63

326.84 the Aug 19th high

May Vix futures 3 months, daily candles The daily bounce got going yesterday with a big push up, but also saw a big upper wick by close. Trading in the middle of yesterdays range currently, awaiting the FOMC/Powell.

Spot Vix 3 months, daily candles Big move up yesterday that stalled, once again, at the psychological 20 level.

Trading in the middle of yesterdays range currently.

TLT 3 months, daily candles Wild couple days of action here - sliced thru all moving averages and recent support on Monday; punched back upwards thru them all yesterday with a "V" bounce.

https://www.briefing.com/stock-market-update [BRIEFING.COM] S&P futures vs fair value: +7.00. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: +32.00.The S&P 500 futures are up 7 points and are trading 0.2% above fair value. The Nasdaq 100 futures are up 32 points and are trading 0.2% above fair value. The Dow Jones Industrial Average futures are up 35 points and are trading 0.1% above fair value. Stock futures are slightly positive ahead of the FOMC policy decision today at 2:00 p.m. ET followed by Fed Chair Powell's press conference at 2:30 a.m. ET. There is perhaps a glint of hope in the market that the Fed might pause today rather than raise rates given what happened yesterday with regional bank stocks or that any rate hike today will be the last in the cycle. PacWest (PACW) and Western Alliance (WAL), some of yesterday's biggest losers, have been volatile this morning. They have bounced back from larger losses seen earlier in premarket trading, which has helped calm things down a bit. Price action in the regional bank space will continue to be in focus for market participants. Market participants are also awaiting a slate of economic data today, including:

  • 8:15 ET: April ADP Employment Change (Briefing.com consensus 142,000; prior 145,000)

  • 9:45 ET: Final April IHS Markit Services PMI (prior 53.7)

  • 10:00 ET: April ISM Non-Manufacturing Index (Briefing.com consensus 51.9%; prior 51.2%)

  • 10:30 ET: Weekly crude oil inventories (prior -5.05 mln)

Earlier, the MBA Mortgage Applications Index reflected a 1.2% decline with purchase applications falling 2.0% while refinance applications increased 1.0%. Most Treasury yields are moving lower. The 2-yr note yield is down two basis points to 3.97% and the 10-yr note yield is down three basis points to 3.40%. Oil prices remain under pressure, slipping below $70.00/bbl, down 2.9% to $69.58/bbl. In corporate news:

  • Advanced Micro (AMD 83.39, -6.52, -7.3%): beats by $0.04, reports revs in-line; issues tepid Q2 guidance

  • Starbucks (SBUX 108.50, -5.96, -5.2%): beats by $0.09, beats on revs; global comps +11%; US comps +12%

  • Ford Motor (F 11.68, -0.12, -1.0%): beats by $0.19, beats on revs; reaffirms FY23 guidance

  • Clorox (CLX 167.60, -0.12, -0.1%): beats by $0.29, beats on revs; guides FY23 EPS above consensus, revs above consensus

  • Eli Lilly's (LLY 425.35, +21.35, +5.5%): donanemab significantly slowed cognitive and functional decline in Phase 3 study of early Alzheimer's Disease

  • CVS Health (CVS 71.40, -1.36, -1.9%): beats by $0.11, beats on revs; lowers FY23 EPS below consensus

  • Estee Lauder (EL 216.00, -29.22, -11.9%): misses by $0.04, beats on revs; guides FY23 EPS below consensus, revs below consensus

  • Kraft Heinz (KHC 40.60, +1.12, +2.9%): beats by $0.08, beats on revs; raises FY23 EPS above consensus


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