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Market Rap 05/02/23 by CTG

SPY / QQQ / Vix SPY 5 days, hourly candles S&P futures scraping along yesterdays lows 414.70 the corresponding futures/pre mkt low so far

416.09 the corresponding futures high


SPY 3 months, daily candles Test of the 3month high ahead of the FOMC/Powell presser tomorrow afternoon; Upper wick of selling showed some caution by close, with daily consolidation at hand if we break yesterdays lows first thing. (support)

415.27 the low from yesterday, trading a tad under that level currently for the small gap down open ahead

411.53 the daily 12ema(white)

411.43

406.74

403.78

402.55 the 50 day MA(blue) (resistance)

417.62

418.31

Levels back to Aug of '22 after that

QQQ 5 days, hourly candles Nasdaq futures bouncing along yesterdays lower end of the narrow range

321.60 the corresponding futures low

322.87 the corresponding futures high

QQQ 3 months and 1yr daily candles Pushed over 3month highs yesterday, trading at levels last seen in Aug. of '22. The doji wick candle by close shows some failure to follow thru those levels, and caution ahead of the FOMC tomorrow. (resistance)

323.63 the highs from yesterday

326.84 from 8/19

330.49 (support)

321.09 the low from yesterday

318.96

317.71 the daily 12ema(white)

315.05

314.94 small open gap

309.89

307.66 the 50 day MA(blue)


May Vix futures 3 months, daily candles Saw big follow thru from last weeks vol crush to start the week, then reversed by close to finish in some slight green. Seeing some small follow thru up so far this morning, as the daily bounce attempt gets going.

Spot Vix 3 months, daily candles Some small follow thru under Fridays lows before reversing; Trying to see a daily bounce get going today as it peeks over yesterdays highs

TLT 3 months, daily candles Big down day yesterday on increasing volume with a gap below the 200 day MA(purple) to start, followed by slicing thru the 50 day MA(blue) like butter, then a break and close under the recent daily range from the past couple months

[BRIEFING.COM] S&P futures vs fair value: -8.00. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: -9.00.The S&P 500 futures are down 7 points and are trading 0.2% below fair value. The Nasdaq 100 futures are down 9 points and are trading slightly below fair value. The Dow Jones Industrial Average futures are down 81 points and are trading 0.2% below fair value. Stock futures have a somewhat negative bias, but moves are narrow. There's a lot of news to digest this morning that has limited investor conviction at this juncture. Treasury Secretary Yellen warned that the debt ceiling could be hit as early as June 1. President Biden will meet with House Speaker Kevin McCarthy and other congressional leaders on May 9 to discuss the debt ceiling. The Reserve Bank of Australia unexpectedly raised its cash rate by 25 bps to 3.85%. Manufacturing PMIs from the eurozone, Germany, France, Italy, Spain, and the U.K. for April were all down from the March readings. Core CPI from the eurozone was slightly better than expected at 1.0% month/month (expected 1.1%). Separately, the Writers Guild of America called for a strike. The 2-yr note yield up one basis point to 4.13%. The 10-yr note yield is down three basis points to 3.53%. In corporate news:

  • BP (BP 37.95, -2.06, -5.2%): beats by $0.04, misses on revs; bp continues to expect to be able to deliver share buybacks of around $4.0 billion per annum, at the lower end of its $14-18 billion capital expenditure range

  • Uber (UBER 35.32, +2.58, +7.9%): beats by $0.01, beats on revs

  • Pfizer (PFE 39.55, +0.34, +0.9%): beats by $0.24, beats on revs; reaffirms FY23 EPS guidance, revs guidance

  • Chegg (CHGG 10.10, -7.50, -42.6%): beats by $0.01, beats on revs; guides Q2 revs below consensus

  • Marriott (MAR 172.72, +2.58, +1.5%): beats by $0.25, beats on revs; guides Q2 EPS above consensus; raises FY23 EPS above consensus

  • DuPont (DD 65.98, -3.40, -4.9%): beats by $0.04, beats on revs

  • Restaurant Brands Int'l (QSR 71.50, +0.90, +1.3%): beats by $0.11, beats on revs

  • Zimmer Biomet (ZBH 144.00, +5.17, +3.7%): beats by $0.25, beats on revs; raises FY23 EPS above consensus, revs above consensus

  • Lattice Semi (LSCC 83.12, +1.48, +1.8%): beats by $0.01, beats on revs; guides Q2 revs mostly above consensus

  • IBM (IBM 126.32, +0.23, +0.2%): aiming to pause hiring for jobs than can be done with artificial intelligence, according to Bloomberg

  • Morgan Stanley (MS 88.18, +0.25, +0.3%): to eliminate 3000 jobs, according to Bloomberg


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