Market Rap 05/06/22 by CTG
SPY / QQQ / Vix
SPY 5 days, hourly candles S&P futures testing yesterdays lower range, ahead of the April jobs report at 8:30 et 410.73 the corresponding futures low so far
415.17 the after hours high from yesterday, before futures opened
SPY 3 months, daily candles Nasty reversal of the post Fed surge from Wednesday; the daily bounce failed right at the last daily "lower high" area as the daily/weekly downtrend continues and we re-test the lows from Monday (support)
409.44 the low from yesterday
405.02 Monday's low
*Zooming out to the weekly chart next to find the next levels if that breaks and we see follow thru (resistance)
423.76 the daily 12ema
425 the high from yesterday
429.66 after that
SPY 3yr, weekly candles If we lose Monday's low, next levels of support go back to March '21 400.67 a weekly gap from back then
392.81 next
383.90 after that
QQQ 5 days, hourly candles Nasdaq futures also testing yesterdays flush lows 310.19 the corresponding futures low so far
314.87 the after hours high from yesterday, before futures opened
QQQ 3 months, daily candles Same story here, nasty reversal of the post Fed bounce and failure at the last daily "lower high", as the daily/weekly downtrend continues. Re-testing Monday's low and teetering on a break and flush to the next levels if we start to see follow thru under that area. (support)
309.62 the low from yesterday
*Zooming out to the weekly chart next to find the lower levels if we break (resistance)
324.77 the daily 12ema
325.25 the high from yesterday
330.29 after that
QQQ 3yr, weekly candles Weekly downtrend on the verge of more continuation (Next support after yesterdays lows goes back to March '21) 307.39
297.45-299.51
May Vix futures 3 months, daily candles HUGE move up yesterday and massive whipsaw after a pretty sizeable vol crush earlier in the week. Right back to testing recent highs. Extremely elevated prices currently, so for this to take the next leg higher we'd need to see the broad market indices take the next leg lower.
Spot Vix 3 months, daily candles After a big move and volatility crush lower post Fed Wednesday to the mid 20s, we whipsawed back the other way up to test recent highs, as the broad markets immediately reversed their Wed. gains right after open; Same story here as May Vix futures - to take the next sizeable leg higher we'd need to see the broad market indices flush the recent lows with some follow thru, and take the next leg lower
TLT 3 months, daily candles Big flush on volume to the next leg lower, daily RSI right back to oversold conditions, zooming out to the weekly, then the monthly next to get the bigger picture context
TLT 3yr, weekly candles Weekly RSI getting more beaten up, currently 22ish, which was where we saw a decent counter-trend bounce back in March
TLT 5yr, monthly candles Monthly RSI now clicking oversold for the first time in at least 5 years If yesterdays lows can't hold 111.90 is the next big level on this timeframe, going back to November of 2018
10 Yr hanging near the highs
Stocks above the 200day at the recent lows
DXY new recent high, backed off a little
SPY weekly flat on the week coming into today
weekly 400.67 gap^
QQQ flat as well resting on weekly support / bottom of channel
at yesterdays close
clean slate
https://www.briefing.com/stock-market-update Futures edge lower in front of April employment report 06-May-22 07:55 ET Market is Closed [BRIEFING.COM] S&P futures vs fair value: -14.90. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: -97.80. The S&P 500 futures trade 15 points, or 0.4%, below fair value in a carryover of selling interest in front of the April Employment Situation report at 8:30 a.m. ET. The Briefing.com consensus is projecting a strong employment report with 395,000 additions to nonfarm payrolls, a 3.5% unemployment rate, and a 0.4% increase in average hourly earnings. The latter will be particularly interesting since the market, as of late, has been glued to every indicator of inflation. Later, investors will receive the Consumer Credit report for March (Briefing.com consensus $25.0 billion) at 3:00 p.m. ET. Besides the negative price action itself, other headwinds for sentiment include Chinese President Xi reaffirming the country's zero-COVID policy, Zillow Group (ZG 33.25, -5.80, -14.9%) observing a meaningful softening in housing value growth trends, and the behavior of the Treasury and the energy markets. The 10-yr yield is currently up three basis points to 3.10%, which is pressuring the growth stocks. The WTI crude futures are back above $110.00/bbl ($110.62, +2.17, +2.1%), which could further pressure consumer discretionary spending by way of higher gas costs. The 2-yr yield is up one basis point to 2.73%. The U.S. Dollar Index is down 0.5% to 103.27. In U.S. Corporate news:
DoorDash (DASH 77.51, +4.36): +6.0% after beating revenue estimates, reporting Q1 adjusted EBITDA above prior guidance, and raising its FY22 marketplace GOV guidance. DASH missed EPS estimates.
Block (SQ 99.71, +4.16): +4.4% despite missing top and bottom-line estimates.
Zillow Group (ZG 33.25, -5.80): -14.9% after guiding Q2 revenue below consensus and observing that total consumer transaction value growth trends are meaningfully softening. ZG beat top and bottom-line estimates.
Opendoor Technologies (OPEN 8.14, +0.99): +14.0% after beating revenue estimates and guiding Q2 revenue above consensus.
Cloudflare (NET 67.62, -10.19): -13.1% despite beating top and bottom-line estimates, guiding Q2 EPS and revenue above consensus, and guiding FY22 revenue above consensus.
