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Market Rap 04/20/23 by CTG

SPY / QQQ / Vix

SPY 5 days, hourly candles S&P futures broke the lows from yesterday but are attempting the bounce back above; if that's all the bounce we see (412ish area) potential hourly bear flag in play 414.22 the after hours high from yesterday before futures opened

411 the pre mkt low

SPY 3 months, daily candles Bears playing defense up near 3month highs, but not seeing much follow thru down so far as daily consolidation got underway yesterday. Decreasing volume the past 5 trading days. Bulls still holding above the 12ema(white) and keeping the daily uptrend in their favor.(support)

412.16 the low from yesterday - trading under that level currently for the gap down open set up

410.33 the daily 12ema


405.68 (resistance)

415.08 the high from yesterday




QQQ 5 days, hourly candles Nasdaq futures also broke the lows from yesterday, and currently have bounced some back up to the breakdown area. Hourly bear flag in play if thats all the bounce we see. 318.94 the after hours high from yesterday before futures opened

315.07 the pre mkt low

QQQ 3 months, daily candles Daily consolidation underway along with another test of the 12ema(white); and another strong close back above. To get any traction bears will need to break that level, and then go and test the daily uptrend support area from 4/12. (support)

316.93 that daily 12ema - under that level here in pre mkt

316.28 the low from yesterday - under that level as well as the gap down open sets up

312.57 the last "higher low" and spot for bears to break, with some follow thru, to break the uptrend on this timeframe (resistance)

319.79 the high from yesterday

321.42-321.63 the recent highs

May Vix futures 3months, daily candles Attempting to see some follow thru on yesterdays daily bounce/potential reversal doji candle. Up testing yesterdays highs currently.

Spot Vix 3 months, daily candles Yesterdays daily bounce attempt ultimately resulted in lower lows, as the broad market saw a strong bounce after the open. Back testing the highs from yesterday currently.

TLT 3 months, daily candles Attempting to hold up near recent daily support levels, and trying to get back above/stay back above it's 50 day MA(blue) [BRIEFING.COM] S&P futures vs fair value: -32.00. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: -139.00.The S&P 500 futures are down 32 points and are trading 0.8% below fair value. The Nasdaq 100 futures are down 139 points and are trading 1.1% below fair value. The Dow Jones Industrial Average futures are down 190 points and are trading 0.6% below fair value. Earnings results had been coming in better than expected recently, yet the latest batch of results has had its share of earnings misses, which is weighing on investor sentiment. Tesla (TSLA) is among the most influential stocks reacting negatively after its earnings report and is dragging on the Nasdaq 100 futures. Dow component American Express (AXP) is also down after its earnings report while IBM (IBM) is showing some strength. Concerns about an economic slowdown have driven buying interest in the Treasury market. The 2-yr note yield is down five basis points to 4.21% and the 10-yr note yield is down three basis points to 3.57%. Energy complex futures are moving lower this morning. WTI crude oil futures are down 1.6% to $77.94/bbl and natural gas futures are down 0.7% to $2.21/mmbtu. Market participants will receive the following economic data today:

  • 8:30 ET: Weekly Initial Claims ( consensus 242,000; prior 239,000), Continuing Claims (prior 1.810 mln), and April Philadelphia Fed survey ( consensus -20.0; prior -23.2)

  • 10:00 ET: March Leading Indicators ( consensus -0.4%; prior -0.3%) and March Existing Home Sales ( consensus 4.50 mln; prior 4.58 mln)

  • 10:30 ET: Weekly natural gas inventories (prior +25 bcf)

In corporate news:

  • Tesla (TSLA 167.45, -13.14, -7.3%): reports EPS in-line, revs in-line; automotive gross margin of approximately 21.0%; for FY23, expects to remain ahead of long-term 50% CAGR with about 1.8 mln cars for year

  • AT&T (T 18.80, -0.90, -4.6%): beats by $0.01, reports revs in-line; reaffirms FY23 EPS guidance

  • IBM (IBM 127.89, +1.57, +1.2%): beats by $0.12, reports revs in-line, appears to slightly lower FY23 revenue outlook; reaffirms FY23 FCF outlook

  • F5 Networks (FFIV 127.43, -9.62, -7.0%): beats by $0.10, reports revs in-line; guides Q3 EPS below consensus, revs below consensus; downgraded to Equal Weight from Overweight at Barclays

  • American Express (AXP 163.09, -1.86, -1.1%): misses by $0.27, beats on revs; reiterates FY23 EPS in-line, revs above consensus

  • Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing (TSM 87.60, +0.37, +0.4%): beats by $0.56, misses on revs; guides Q2 revs below consensus

  • D.R. Horton (DHI 106.65, +4.79, +4.7%): beats by $0.82, beats on revs; raises FY23 revs above consensus

  • Zions Bancorp (ZION 31.00, -1.72, -5.3%): misses by $0.21; Deposits were $69.2 billion, down 16%

  • Las Vegas Sands (LVS 62.50, +3.14, +5.3%): beats by $0.08, beats on revs

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