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Market Rap 04/14/23 by CTG

SPY / QQQ / Vix

SPY 5 days, hourly candles S&P futures trading in the upper third of yesterdays range, potential bull flag if that 412.42 pre mkt low holds up. If it breaks, deeper consolidation into the wide range from the past 2 days post CPI report will get underway 413.74 the corresponding futures high

412.42 the pre mkt low

SPY 3 months, daily candles Complete reversal of Wednesdays bearish engulfing candle, and got thru recent highs as it looks back up at the highs from February. That seemed like the least likely scenario but here we are. Daily higher lows/uptrend remain intact as it rides the 12ema(white) up. (resistance)

413.84 the high from yesterday


416.97-418.31 (support)

407.99 the low from yesterday

407.04 the 12ema

405.68 that last daily "higher low"

QQQ 5 days, hourly candles Nasdaq futures relatively weaker compared to the S&P(which is benefiting pre mkt from bullish big bank action following earnings) with some deeper consolidation of yesterdays big reversal 319.46 the corresponding futures high

317.15 the pre mkt low

QQQ 3 months, daily candles Complete reversal of Wednesdays weakness yesterday, after seeing no follow thru under recent lows. Inside bar day today the most likely scenario here?

If it gets thru yesterdays high only the 4/4 high is left before we zoom out and look for resistance that goes back to summer of last year. (resistance)

319.65 the high from yesterday

321.63 the 4/4 high (support)

315.19 the daily 12ema(white) back as support

313.63 the low from yesterday


April Vix futures 3 months, daily candles (expires on Tues so next week I'll move onto the May Vix futures contract) Big reversal and flush to lower lows here yesterday, hanging out near those lows so far today

Spot Vix 3 months, daily candles Flush under the recent range yesterday, hovering just above yesterdays low currently. 17.06 the 3month low. [BRIEFING.COM] S&P futures vs fair value: -2.00. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: -67.00.The S&P 500 futures are down 2 points and are trading in line with fair value. The Nasdaq 100 futures are down 63 points and are trading 0.5% below fair value. The Dow Jones Industrial Average futures are up 30 points and are trading 0.1% above fair value. Futures tied to the Dow Jones Industrial Average outperform thanks to gains in JPMorgan (JPM) and UnitedHealth (UNH), which are helping to offset weakness in Boeing (BA). Meanwhile, losses in the mega space have weighed down the broader market despite some underlying strength from bank stocks following this morning's earnings reports. JPMorgan, Wells Fargo, and PNC Financial all reported better than expected Q1 earnings. Citigroup will be releasing its results shortly. Investors are also in wait-and-see mode in front of several data releases, including:

  • 8:30 ET: March Retail Sales ( consensus -0.4%; prior -0.4%), Retail Sales ex-auto ( consensus -0.4%; prior -0.1%), March Import Prices (prior -0.1%), Import Prices ex-oil (prior 0.4%), Export Prices (prior 0.2%), and Export Prices ex-agriculture (prior 0.1%)

  • 9:15 ET: March Industrial Production ( consensus 0.2%; prior 0.0%) and Capacity Utilization ( consensus 79.0%; prior 78.0%)

  • 10:00 ET: February Business Inventories ( consensus 0.3%; prior -0.1%) and preliminary April University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment survey ( consensus 62.7; prior 62.0)

In other news, House Speaker Kevin McCarthy will introduce a plan next week to raise the debt ceiling for one year with spending cuts, according to Bloomberg. Treasury yields are little changed from yesterday's settlement levels. The 2-yr note yield is unchanged at 3.99% and the 10-yr note yield is up one basis point to 3.46%. The U.S. Dollar Index is flat at 100.99. WTI crude oil futures are up 0.4% to $82.47/bbl and natural gas futures are down 0.1% to $2.01/mmbtu. In corporate news:

  • JPMorgan Chase (JPM 136.70, +7.71, +6.0%): beats by $0.73, beats on revs

  • Wells Fargo (WFC 40.85, +1.19, +3.0%): beats by $0.09, beats on revs

  • PNC (PNC 125.00, +3.59, +3.0%): beats by $0.34, reports revs in-line; guides Q2 revs below consensus; guides FY23 revs below consensus

  • Boeing (BA 200.26, -13.33, -6.2%): expects reduced 737 Max deliveries and production because of a parts problem, according to CNBC

  • UnitedHealth (UNH 531.00, +4.77, +0.9%): beats by $0.18, beats on revs; raises FY23 EPS in-line

  • V.F. Corp (VFC 23.05, +1.23, +5.6%): upgraded to Buy from Sell at JPMorgan

  • Lucid Group (LCID 7.72, -0.53, -6.4%): announces Q1 production and delivery totals

  • Catalent (CTLT 53.00, -10.31, -16.3%): expects productivity issues and higher-than-expected costs experienced at three of its facilities will materially and adversely impact the Company’s financial results; also names Ricky Hopson as interim CFO

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