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Market Rap 04/12/23 by CTG

SPY / QQQ / Vix

SPY 5 days, hourly candles S&P futures trading sideways in the middle of yesterdays range, ahead of the next CPI report later this morning at 8:30et 409.45 the corresponding futures low

410.67 the pre mkt high

SPY 3 months, daily candles Paused at recent resistance yesterday as volume dwindles ahead of CPI. Daily bull flag in play if we hold the lows from last Thursday and see follow thru over recent resistance; Fail at that resistance and break the lows from last Thursday with follow thru, and a new daily downtrend would confirm. Stay tuned. (resistance)

411.18 the high from yesterday

411.92 the recent high


416.97-418.31 (support)

408.92 the low from yesterday

405.68 the low from last Thursday and spot for bulls to stay above to avoid losing the daily uptrend/confirming a daily downtrend

405.47 the daily 12ema(white)

404.35 small gap

402.11 the 50 day MA(blue)

QQQ 5 days, hourly candles Nasdaq futures trading sideways in the lower end of yesterdays range 315.11 the corresponding futures low

316.44 the pre mkt high

QQQ 3 months, daily candles Another inside bar day yesterday, watching for a direction break today following CPI. Still holding above the daily 12ema(white), with room for a daily "higher low" above the 3/28 low, even if that 12ema is lost. Break bullish and we'll be testing recent resistance, and then zooming out to levels from last summer to find the next areas of interest above. (support)

315.31 the low from yesterday

314.73 the 12ema


308.20 open gap

304.77 the last daily "higher low" and spot for bulls to defend in order to maintain the uptrend on this timeframe, if recent lows are lost (resistance)

317.39-319.06 the high(s) from the past 4 trading days

321.63 the last resistance before zooming out to last summer

IWM 3 months, daily candles Showing some outperformance and relative strength the past couple days, daily inverse head and shoulders in play?

April Vix futures 3 months, daily candles Scraping along the bottom with little movement so far this week

Spot Vix 3 months, daily candles Scraping sideways here as well just above recent lows/below the 20 level [BRIEFING.COM] S&P futures vs fair value: +8.00. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: +17.00.The S&P 500 futures are up 8 points and are trading 0.1% above fair value. The Nasdaq 100 futures are up 17 points and are trading 0.1% above fair value. The Dow Jones Industrial Average futures are up 88 points and are trading 0.2% above fair value. The stock market is poised for mixed open, little changed from yesterday's closing levels. There will presumably be more conviction in the equity futures market after investors receive the March Consumer Price Index at 8:30 a.m. ET. Market participants are also awaiting to FOMC Minutes from the March 21-22 meeting, released at 2:00 p.m. ET. Philadelphia Federal Reserve Bank President Patrick Harker (FOMC voter) said rates should go to 5% and the Fed should hold them there, according to Reuters. The 2-yr Treasury note yield is up one basis point to 4.05% and the 10-yr note yield is up two basis point to 3.45%. The weekly MBA Mortgage Applications Index rose 5.3% with purchase applications jumping 8.0% while refinance applications were flat. Other data releases today include:

  • 8:30 ET: March CPI ( consensus 0.3%; prior 0.4%) and Core CPI ( consensus 0.4%; prior 0.5%)

  • 10:30 ET: Weekly crude oil inventories (prior -3.74 mln)

  • 14:00 ET: March Treasury Budget ( consensus -$253.00 bln; prior -$262.40 bln)

In corporate news:

  • Johnson & Johnson (JNJ 164.20, -0.07, -0.04%): defends attempts to resolve talc lawsuits in bankruptcy, according to Reuters

  • National Instruments (NATI 57.00, +4.42, +8.4%): Emerson Electric (EMR) is in discussions to acquire National Instruments, according to Reuters.

  • Shopify (SHOP 45.73, +0.95, +2.1%): JMP upgraded to Market Outperform from Market Perform

  • Triton International (TRTN 82.24, +19.23, +30.5%): to be acquired by Brookfield Infrastructure (BIP) in a $13.3 bln take-private transaction

  • Goldman Sachs (GS 328.99, +1.62, +0.5%): UBS upgraded to Buy from Neutral

  • Cirrus Logic (CRUS 96.70, -5.12, -5.0%): shares lower by 4% after Apple (AAPL) analyst Ming-Chi Kuo tweets "Two iPhone 15 Pro models’ removal of solid-state button design negatively affects Cirrus Logic and AAC"

  • Procter & Gamble (PG 151.30, +0.64, +0.4%): increases quarterly dividend to $0.9407/share from $0.9133/share

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