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Market Rap 04/06/23 by CTG

SPY / QQQ / Vix

SPY 5 days, hourly candles S&P futures held above yesterdays lows, pivoting up to test yesterdays highs currently 406.54 the corresponding futures low

408.20 the pre mkt high so far

SPY 3 months, daily candles Daily consolidation continued yesterday, with some recovery by close and a doji candle going in; is that all the consolidation we'll see with yesterdays low becoming the next "higher low" on this timeframe? Or do we break that low and continue down to test the 12ema(white)/50 day MA(blue)? Last trading day of the week today, ahead of the March NFP report which will be released tomorrow morning. (support)

405.88 the low from yesterday

404.55

404.35 small gap

402.83 the 12ema

401.76 the 50 day MA

401.60 small gap (resistance)

408.70 the high from yesterday - get thru there with some follow thru and yesterdays low becomes the new "higher low", in the context of this daily uptrend that's going

411.92 the recent high

415.05

QQQ 5 days, hourly candles Nasdaq futures saw a brief break of yesterdays lows a couple hours ago, with no follow thru, followed by a reversal 313.65 the pre mkt low

315.88 the corresponding futures high

QQQ 3 months, daily candles Daily consolidation underway yesterday here as well (on increasing volume), as the 12ema(white) gets tested. Plenty of room for bulls to still set a daily "higher low" - even if yesterdays low wasn't it; in the context of the daily uptrend. (support)

314.07 the low from yesterday

313.17 that 12ema

312.81

310.05

308.20 open gap

304.77 the last "higher low" and spot for bulls to stay anywhere above on this consolidation, in order to maintain said uptrend (resistance)

319.06 the high from yesterday

321.63 the recent high

April Vix futures 3 months, daily candles So far not all that concerned with broad market consolidation; Daily bear flag look if the last couple days of highs are the best it can do. Push over the 21.25-21.40 area and more caution will be warranted.

Spot Vix 3months, daily candles Still allergic to the 20 handle, if that changes more caution will be warranted

https://www.briefing.com/stock-market-update [BRIEFING.COM] S&P futures vs fair value: +2.00. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: -21.00.The S&P 500 futures are up 3 points and are trading slightly above fair value. The Nasdaq 100 futures are down 21 points and are trading 0.1% below fair value. The Dow Jones Industrial Average futures are up 44 points and are trading 0.1% above fair value. Equity futures are mixed, but moves in either direction are modest. Following weak economic releases earlier in the week, there's likely some hesitation in play ahead of this morning's jobless claims report at 8:30 a.m. ET followed by the closely-watched March Employment Report tomorrow at 8:30 a.m. ET. House Speaker Kevin McCarthy (R-CA) said in an interview with Bloomberg TV that Wall Street should be concerned about the debt ceiling. Treasury yields are moving lower this morning. The 2-yr note yield is down five basis points to 3.71% and the 10-yr note yield is down one basis point to 3.28%. Energy complex futures are mixed. WTI crude oil futures are up 0.4% to $80.94/bbl and natural gas futures are down 0.5% to $2.15/mmbtu. As a reminder, markets will be closed tomorrow for Good Friday. In corporate news:

  • Costco (COST 485.12, -12.01, -2.4%): reports March net sales +0.5% yr/yr to $21.71 bln; total monthly comparable sales -1.1%, adj comps (ex gas fx) +2.6%

  • BlackRock (BLK 656.01, -0.03, -0.0%): FDIC announces retention of BLK as financial advisor to assist with the liquidation of securities of the former Signature Bank (SBNY) and Silicon Valley Bank (SIVB)

  • AbbVie (ABBV 159.70, -1.10, -0.7%): guides Q1 earnings below consensus; lowers FY23 earnings outlook due to acquired IPR&D and milestone expenses

  • Walt Disney (DIS 100.02, +0.11, +0.1%): named Hulu president Joe Earley as head of streaming, replacing Michael Paull, according to Variety

  • FedEx (FDX 232.28, +2.45, +1.1%): upgraded to Outperform from Market Perform at Raymond James

The U.S. labor market appears to be easing, according to latest jobs data, but investors are awaiting the payrolls report on Friday for further proof that the Federal Reserve could end its rate-hiking cycle. Jobless claims, expected later in the day, will also be closely watched.

Note that markets will be closed for Good Friday, but it is not a federal holiday.

The consensus estimate is for nonfarm payroll to increase 239K in March vs. +311K in February, with unemployment rate unchanged at 3.6%.

Deutsche Bank economists expect March numbers to come in stronger than 250K, which would be the second-slowest pace of monthly job growth over the last two years. "Bear in mind however, that even though we've had some weak data on the employment side, the January ADP report came in beneath expectations, but nonfarm payrolls went on to surge by +517K on the initial estimate, so there's still scope for a wide range of outcomes tomorrow," said strategist Jim Reid.

The payrolls report will be the last one ahead of the Federal Reserve's meeting in May. Fed funds futures show an ~59% chance of no hike and ~42% probability of a 25-basis point increase.

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