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Market Rap 04/05/23 by CTG

SPY / QQQ / Vix

SPY 5 days, hourly candles S&P futures trying to hold above yesterdays lows 409.44 the corresponding futures high

407.74 the pre mkt low

SPY 3 months, daily candles Bearish engulfing candle yesterday on unremarkable volume, as daily consolidation gets underway. Next we'll watch to see how shallow, or deep that consolidation is. Bulls have plenty of room for a "higher low" on this timeframe. (support)

407.24 the low from yesterday

404.55

404.35 small open gap

401.96 the 12ema(white) - shallow, healthy consolidation will hold above this level

401.61 the 50 day MA(blue)

401.60 next small open gap

398.68

396.49 last open gap

393.69 the last daily "higher low

392.99 the 200 day MA(purple) (resistance)

411.92 the high from yesterday

415.05

418.31


QQQ 5 days, hourly candlesNasdaq futures also trying to hold above yesterdays lows 319.86 the corresponding futures high

318.22 the pre mkt low

QQQ 3 months and 1yr, daily candles The inside bar from Monday broke bullish yesterday with no follow thru; watching for any break of yesterdays low with follow thru, for daily consolidation to get underway. Plenty of room for bulls to find the next "higher low" on this timeframe if that does occur. (support)

317.42-317.83 the lows from the past 2 days

315.60

312.66 the daily 12ema(white) - healthy consolidation stays above this level

310.05

308.20 open gap

304.77 the last daily "higher low" and spot for bulls to keep anywhere above to keep the daily uptrend intact (resistance)

321.63 the high from yesterday

322.08 open gap from 8/22

326.84


Vix Futures 3 months, daily candles Some bounce off recent lows yesterday, inside bar so far today. Watching for the direction that inside bar breaks. 21.30 to the upside

20.05 to the downside

Spot Vix 3 months, daily candles The 20 psychological level keeping a lid on it so far. Get over that level with some follow thru and we'll see more daily consolidation in the broad indices.

TLT 3 months, daily candles After a couple days under it's 50 day MA(blue) last week, it got back above it to end the week and has continued the strength this week; Heading up to test recent highs. Tightening up in this 103-109 range and going sideways might be the most likely scenario over the short term.

https://www.briefing.com/stock-market-update [BRIEFING.COM] S&P futures vs fair value: -4.00. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: -4.00.The S&P 500 futures are down 4 point and are trading slightly below fair value. The Nasdaq 100 futures are down 6 points and are trading slightly below fair value. The Dow Jones Industrial Average futures are down 24 points and are trading 0.1% below fair value. Equity futures trade down with only modest losses, indicative of a market in consolidation mode after making a big move up over short period of time. A few mega cap stocks sport decent gains this morning, boosting the broader market. Cleveland Fed President Mester (not an FOMC voter) said rates will need to go higher than 5%, according to CNBC. In related central bank news, the Reserve Bank of New Zealand raised its official cash rate by 50 bps to 5.25% against expectations for a 25-bps increase. The 2-yr Treasury note yield is unchanged at 3.83% and the 10-yr note yield is up two basis points to 3.35%. The U.S. Dollar Index is up 0.1% to 101.70. WTI crude oil futures are unchanged at $80.72/bbl and natural gas futures are up 0.3% to $2.11/mmbtu. The weekly MBA Mortgage Applications Index fell 4.1% with purchase applications falling 4.0% and refinancing applications declining 5.0%. Other data releases today include:

  • 8:15 ET: March ADP Employment Change (Briefing.com consensus 205,000; prior 242,000)

  • 8:30 ET: February Trade Balance (Briefing.com consensus -$69.0 bln; prior -$68.3 bln)

  • 9:45 ET: Final March IHS Markit Services PMI (prior 53.8)

  • 10:00 ET: March ISM Non-Manufacturing Index (prior 54.5%; prior 55.1%)

  • 10:30 ET: Weekly crude oil inventories (prior -7.49 mln)

In corporate news:

  • Johnson & Johnson (JNJ 163.03, +4.54, +2.9%): subsidiary LTL Management re-files for voluntary Chapter 11 bankruptcy protection to resolve claims from cosmetic talc litigation; to pay $8.9 bln

  • UnitedHealth (UNH 497.68, +4.43, +0.9%): upgraded to Strong Buy from Outperform at Raymond James

  • Walmart (WMT 146.80, -0.43, -0.3%): affirms FY24 EPS, net sales growth, comp growth guidance; reaffirms Q1 EPS guidance; affirms commitment to financial framework of 4% sales growth and 4%+ operating income growth over the next 3-5 years

  • First Citizens BancShares (FCNCA 976.00, +19.60, +2.1%): upgraded to Buy from Sell at UBS

  • Zions Bancorp (ZION 28.61, +0.90, +3.3%): upgraded to Outperform from Neutral at Robert W. Baird

  • FedEx (FDX 233.00, +6.51, +2.9%): announces consolidation of operating companies; sees $4 bln in permanent cost reductions; raises annual dividend by 10%

  • Conagra (CAG 38.10, +0.52, +1.4%): beats by $0.12, reports revs in-line; raises FY23 EPS above consensus



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