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Market Rap 04/03/23 by CTG

SPY / QQQ / Vix

SPY 5 days, hourly candles S&P futures cooling off hourly overbought conditions, while trading sideways in the last big hourly candle from Friday. 4hr RSI hanging out in overbought territory, as it has been since Thursday. 409.85 the after hours high from Friday

408.01 the corresponding futures low

SPY 3 months, daily candles

Big push over the highs from March on heavy volume Friday, following it's 3rd gap up in a row last week, so short term it's a bit extended. Daily uptrend in play, so whenever daily consolidation does begin we'll look for the next daily "higher low" and a "buy the dip" trade opportunity.

(resistance)

409.70 the high from Friday

412.91

414.06-415.01

416.49

418.31

(support)

404.55 the low from Friday

404.35 small open gap

401.76

401.60 next small open gap

401.15 50 day MA(blue)

398.77 the daily 12ema(white)

398.68

396.49 larger open gap

393.69 the last daily "higher low", so bulls can set the next one anywhere above there once consolidation of this recent move gets underway, in order to maintain the trend

392.62 the 200 day MA(purple)

QQQ 5 days, hourly candles Nasdaq futures cooling off hourly/4hr overbought conditions 318.56 the corresponding futures low

321.44 the after hours high from Friday

QQQ 1 year, daily candles Zooming out to the 1year chart to find the next levels of resistance, which now go back to August of '22.

(resistance)

321.17 the high from Friday

321.51 the 8/26 high

322.08 an open gap from 8/19-8/22

326.84

(support)

315.60 the low from Friday

312.81

309.93 the daily 12ema(white)

308.20 open gap

304.77 the last daily "higher low"

April Vix futures 3months, daily candles Testing, scraping along recent lows

Spot Vix 3 months, daily candles Tested early March lows on Friday; seeing some gap up over the highs from Friday to start this week, with the 20 psyche level overhead as the next big test

https://www.briefing.com/stock-market-update [BRIEFING.COM] S&P futures vs fair value: -6.00. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: -88.00.The S&P 500 futures are down 4 point and are trading 0.1% below fair value. The Nasdaq 100 futures are down 91 points and are trading 0.6% below fair value. The Dow Jones Industrial Average futures are up 122 points and are trading 0.4% above fair value. OPEC+ surprised markets with news that it will reduce oil production by another 1 million barrels per day starting in May, according to Bloomberg. According to FT, Saudi Arabia was "irritated" with the Biden Administration after ruling out new purchases of oil to refill the SPR. WTI crude oil futures are up 6.6% to $80.64/bbl. Equity futures indicate a mixed open with the Dow outperforming as money flows into blue chip names with Chevron (CVX) a favored spot. China's March Caixin Manufacturing PMI was down to 50.0 from 51.6 last month (expected 51.7). This comes ahead of the March ISM Manufacturing Index (Briefing.com consensus 47.5%; prior 47.7%) release this morning at 10:00 a.m. ET. The 2-yr Treasury note yield is up two basis points to 4.09% and the 10-yr note yield is unchanged at 3.50%. The U.S. Dollar Index is down 0.2% to 102.33. Aside from the ISM Manufacturing Index, other data releases today include:

  • 9:45 a.m. ET: March IHS Markit Manufacturing PMI - Final (prior 49.3)

  • 10:00 a.m. ET: February Construction Spending (Briefing.com consensus 0.0%; prior -0.1%)

In corporate news:

  • Tesla (TSLA 201.90, -5.56, -2.7%): reports Q1 production of 440,808 vehicles and delivered over 422,000 vehicles.

  • McDonald's (MCD 281.67, +2.06, +0.7%) temporarily closes US offices ahead of corporate layoff announcements, according to WSJ

  • UBS (UBS 20.31, -1.03, -4.8%): will eliminate 20-30% of workforce after Credit Suisse (CS) deal gets complicated, according to Bloomberg

  • World Wrestling (WWE 83.60, -7.66, -8.4%): Endeavor Group announces UFC and WWE (WWE) to form a $21+ billion global live sports and entertainment company

  • Chevron (CVX 170.62, +7.46, +4.6%): OPEC will reduce oil production by another 1 million barrels per day, according to Bloomberg

  • Extra Space Storage (EXR 153.00, -9.93, -6.1%): company and Life Storage (LSI) combine to form the preeminent storage operator

  • Teck Resources (TECK 40.98, +4.48, +12.3%): Board of Directors rejects unsolicited acquisition proposal


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