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Market Rap 03/30/23 by CTG

SPY / QQQ / Vix

SPY 5 days, hourly candles The S&P's breakout over all recent resistance(s) continuing overnight and in pre mkt. Hourly and 4hr RSI are now pretty overbought, so some type of cool off should be anticipated. 403.96 the pre mkt high so far

400.86 the corresponding futures low

SPY 3 months, daily candles The gap up open never really looked back, and finished the day with a close over the 50 day MA(blue). Another gap up open setting up here in pre mkt, with current trading over the FOMC day highs. (resistance)

401.60 the high from yesterday - trading well above there currently for the gap up

402.49 the FOMC day highs - trading above that level currently



408.14 small open gap (support)

400.49 the 50 day MA

398.68 the low from yesterday

396.49 open gap

395.76 the daily 12ema

393.69 the new daily "higher low" in the context of the daily uptrend

392.30 the 200 day MA(purple)

QQQ 5 days, hourly candles Nasdaq futures pushing thru all recent highs as well (everything except the FOMC day high which will be tested again today) 314.79 the pre mkt high so far

312.08 the corresponding futures low

QQQ 3 months, daily candles Gap up open setting up into a test of 3month highs/FOMC day highs. Will we see daily bull flag follow thru over those highs, or will the bears be able to play defense again? Stay tuned.(resistance)

313.35 the high from yesterday - trading above there currently for the gap up open

315.25 the FOMC day highs before we zoom out to the 1 year chart to look for the next resistance areas, and at that point we'd be trading at the highest levels we've seen since last August. The final nails in the "this is a bear market rally" coffin seem to be going in the past few days. (support)

310.05 the low from yesterday

308.20 open gap

306.52 the daily 12ema(white)

304.77 the new "higher low" in the context of the daily uptrend

April Vix futures 3months, daily candles Not far from testing THE lows prior to the banking "crisis not crisis"

Spot Vix 3 months, daily candles Also heading to test the early March lows prior to the banking fiasco(s) [BRIEFING.COM] S&P futures vs fair value: +22.00. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: +70.00.The S&P 500 futures are up 21 point and are trading 0.5% above fair value. The Nasdaq 100 futures are up 64 points and are trading 0.5% above fair value. The Dow Jones Industrial Average futures are up 194 points and are trading 0.6% above fair value. Yesterday's positive disposition has carried over this morning with the equity futures market showing decent gains. Worries about the banking industry continue to ease, offering support to the broader market, as evidenced by the price action in many bank stocks ahead of the open. Gains in the mega cap space have also been supportive for the broader market so far this morning. Notably, many overseas indices trade firmly higher again today. This is partially thanks to a cooler than expected March CPI (4.0% yr/yr; expected 5.5% yr/yr) reading from Spain. Spain's pleasing data comes ahead of the latest inflation reading for the U.S. in the form of the PCE Price Index (the Fed's preferred inflation gauge) tomorrow at 8:30 a.m. ET. Market participants will receive the following economic data today:

  • 8:30 ET: Weekly Initial Claims ( consensus 196,000; prior 191,000), Continuing Claims (prior 1.694 mln), Q4 GDP -- third estimate ( consensus 2.7%; prior 2.7%), and GDP Deflator -- third estimate ( consensus 3.9%; prior 3.9%)

  • 10:30 ET: Weekly natural gas inventories (prior -72 bcf)

In corporate news:

  • Roku (ROKU 66.30, +2.39, +3.7%): approved a restructuring plan - expected to impact approximately 200 employees, approximately 6% of the Company's workforce

  • Charles Schwab (SCHW 54.55, -0.66, -1.2%): downgraded to Equal Weight from Overweight at Morgan Stanley

  • RH (RH 230.02, -15.69, -6.4%): misses by $0.48, reports revs in-line; guides Q1 revs below consensus; guides FY24 revs below consensus; expects business conditions to remain challenging for next several quarters and possibly longer

  • Philip Morris International (PM 96.36, +1.64, +1.7%): upgraded to Overweight from Neutral at JPMorgan

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