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Market Rap 03/28/23 by CTG

SPY / QQQ / Vix

SPY 5 days, hourly candles S&P futures testing/bouncing off yesterdays lows 395.56 the pre mkt low

397.90 the corresponding futures high

SPY 3 months, daily candles Yesterdays gap up open was filled a couple hours after the RTH open. Much of the trading has been sandwiched between the 50 day MA(blue) above, and 200 day MA(purple) below over the past week. Fridays low now becomes the new "higher low", in the context of the daily uptrend, so bulls will be looking to stay above there on any pullbacks. (resistance)

398.92 the high from yesterday

399.29 was last Thursdays high

400.48 the 50 day MA

402.49 the FOMC day high (support)

395.56 the low from yesterday

394.58 the daily 12ema(white)

392.27 the 200 day MA

391.13 the 150 day MA(orange)

389.40 the new daily "higher low"

QQQ 5 days, hourly candles Nasdaq futures saw a break below yesterdays lows with no follow thru; currently trading back above 307.62 the pre mkt low

309.46 the corresponding futures high

QQQ 3months, daily candles Yesterdays gap up open stalled at recent resistance, then filled shortly after the open. Bears looking to play defense against those recent highs. Bulls looking to stay above yesterdays lows first thing, and avoid any daily consolidation. Above the daily 12ema(white) and the last "higher low" from 3/20 at 302.01, theres no red flags for the bulls here. (resistance)

312.70 the high from yesterday

314.15-315.25 the recent highs (support)

307.89 the low from yesterday


305.07 the daily 12ema

302.01 that spot for bulls to stay above to maintain the daily uptrend

April Vix futures 3 months, daily candles Testing the lows we saw around the FOMC from last week

Spot Vix 3 months, daily candles Watching to see if this can hold above/pivot off of 20 again. A bounce here would get daily consolidation underway in the broad indices. [BRIEFING.COM] S&P futures vs fair value: +1.00. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: -2.00.The S&P 500 futures are unchanged and are trading roughly in line with fair value. The Nasdaq 100 futures are unchanged and are trading roughly in line with fair value. The Dow Jones Industrial Average futures are up 8 points and are trading slightly above fair value. The stock market is poised to open somewhat flat with market participants lacking conviction on either side of the tape. Money flows this morning look a lot like yesterday's session with bank stocks showing nice gains while lagging mega cap stocks weigh down the broader market. Treasury yields continue to climb this morning, reflecting the sentiment shift around bank stocks. The 2-yr note yield is back above 4.00%, up three basis points to 4.02%. The 10-yr note yield is up four basis points to 3.56%. The U.S. Dollar Index is down 0.3% to 102.56. Energy complex futures trade in mixed fashion. WTI crude oil futures are up 0.1% to $72.86/bbl and natural gas futures are down 0.9% to $2.19/mmbtu. Market participants will receive the following economic data today:

  • 8:30 ET: February advance goods trade deficit (prior -$91.50 bln), advance Retail Inventories (prior 0.3%), and advance Wholesale Inventories (prior -0.4%)

  • 9:00 ET: January FHFA Housing Price Index (prior -0.1%) and January S&P Case-Shiller Home Price Index ( consensus 2.5%; prior 4.6%)

  • 10:00 ET: March Consumer Confidence ( consensus 101.5; prior 102.9)

In corporate news:

  • Alibaba (BABA 94.26, +8.14, +9.5%): aiming to split into six additional units, according to Bloomberg

  • Carnival (CCL 8.97, +0.18, +2.0%): upgraded to Equal Weight from Underweight at Wells Fargo

  • Walgreens Boots Alliance (WBA 33.50, +0.56, +1.7%): beats by $0.05, beats on revs; reaffirms FY23 EPS guidance

  • Occidental Petro (OXY 61.00, +1.35, +2.3%): upgraded to Outperform from Market Perform at TD Cowen

  • Paramount Global (PARA 21.83, +1.07, +5.2%): upgraded to Buy from Neutral at BofA Securities

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