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Market Rap 03/22/23 by CTG

SPY / QQQ / Vix

SPY 5 days, hourly candles S&P futures sideways in the upper third of yesterdays range, as they await the FOMC decision at 2et, Powell presser 2:30et 399.34 the pre mkt high

397.47 the pre mkt low

SPY 3 months, daily candles Gapped up yesterday over the 12ema(white) and headed up for the 50 day MA(blue) test. Daily uptrend in play even with all the banking drama. We'll see how Powell shakes the charts up this afternoon.(resistance)

399.41 the high from yesterday

400.35 that 50 day MA

401.48

404.67

407.45(support)

395.58 the low from yesterday

394.47 the daily 12ema

394.17 open gap

392.63 the 200 day MA(purple)

391.99 the 150 day MA(orange)

389.99

QQQ 5 days, hourly candles Nasdaq futures also sideways in the upper third of yesterdays range, cooling off some from overbought hourly/4hr conditions after yesterday, awaiting the FOMC 308.75 the pre mkt low

310.53 the corresponding futures high

QQQ 3 months, daily candles Testing the highest levels seen in the past 3 months after yesterdays daily bull flag follow thru. We'll see if Powell helps bears reject from those levels, or if we see follow thru over and zoom out for the next set of higher resistance(s). (resistance)

310.80 the high from yesterday

313.68 the 2/2 high (support)

306.40 the low from yesterday

306.30 small open gap

302.01

301.29 the rising 12ema(white)

297.19

294.81 the 50 day MA(blue)

April Vix futures 3 months, daily candles Big follow thru down yesterday after Mondays reversal, breaking all lows seen last week.

Testing the lows seen 3/14 currently, the first back off low after the big spike that started March 9th on banking crisis fears.

Spot Vix 3months, daily candles Back into the low 20s after another big vol crush day yesterday. We'll see if the 20 psyche test comes today, or if Powell gets this excited again. Currently a daily bear flag if we stay below the 22-23ish level on this pass.

TLT 6 months, daily candles Rejected at the previous Dec. 7th and 2/2 peak(s) last week. Back below it's 200 day MA(purple) and testing it's 50 day MA(blue) here ahead of the FOMC.

Weekly inside bar so far this week, but testing last weeks lows. Break that and we'll look towards a weekly "higher low" anywhere above that 98.88 low from late February.

https://www.briefing.com/stock-market-update [BRIEFING.COM] S&P futures vs fair value: -1.00. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: -14.00.The S&P 500 futures are down 1 point and are trading roughly in line with fair value. The Nasdaq 100 futures are down 15 points and are trading 0.1% below fair value. The Dow Jones Industrial Average futures are up 14 points and are trading slightly above fair value. The equity futures market has experienced mixed price action this morning, but moves are modest in scope due to investors lacking conviction ahead of the Fed's FOMC policy decision at 2:00 p.m. ET today and Fed Chair Powell's press conference at 2:30 p.m. ET. As a reminder, today's meeting will also feature the release of an updated Summary of Economic Projections. The U.K.'s February Consumer Price Index showed a faster pace of acceleration in inflation than expected, rising 1.1% month/month versus the expected 0.6% increase. Also, European Central Bank President Lagarde said that she has not seen clear evidence that inflation is trending down and that she is not committed to any rate hikes or a pause yet. The weekly MBA Mortgage Application Index rose 3.0% with refinancing applications increasing 5.0% and purchase applications rising 2.0%. Other economic data today is limited to the weekly EIA Crude Oil Inventories (prior 1.55 million). The 2-yr note yield is up five basis points to 4.22% and the 10-yr note yield is up two basis points to 3.62. The U.S. Dollar Index is down 0.2% to 103.07. Energy complex futures are trending lower. WTI crude oil futures are down 0.3% to $69.43/bbl and natural gas futures are down 3.9% to $2.39/mmbtu. In corporate news:

  • Boeing (BA 201.05, -3.65, -1.8%): has secured order of 21 737 MAX jets from Japan Airlines, according to Reuters

  • GameStop (GME 26.73, +9.08, +51.4%): beats by $0.29, beats on revs

  • Petco Health and Wellness (WOOF 9.41, -0.76, -7.5%): misses by $0.01, reports revs in-line; guides FY24 revs below consensus

  • NIKE (NKE 123.50, -2.11, -1.7%): beats by $0.24, beats on revs, gross margin decreased 330 bps, worse than the 200-250 bps decline it guided for; Guides to MayQ revs of flat-to-low single-digits

  • Winnebago (WGO 60.51, +2.26, +3.9%): beats by $0.63, beats on revs

  • HealthEquity (HQY 61.50, +3.24, +5.6%): beats by $0.02, beats on revs; mid-point of FY24 EPS and revs guidance above consensus


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