Market Rap 03/21/22 by CTG
SPY / QQQ / Vix
SPY 5 days, hourly candles S&P futures trading sideways in the upper third of Friday's wide range, cooling off hourly/4hr overbought RSI conditions some 445.67 was the Friday afternoon high post market
442.43 was the corresponding futures low
SPY 3 months, daily candles Strong push and close back over the 50 day MA (first time closing back over since early January, and it only lasted one day back then) and coming into a test of the 200 day MA. Surprised Friday didn't have more volume with all the options expiration 444.86 the high from Friday and first resistance
445.97 the 200 day MA
450.58 the 150 day MA442.21 the 50 day MA
437.22 the low from Friday and next support
431.99 the daily 12ema
SPY 3yr, weekly candles WEEKLY trend change back in bulls favor
QQQ 5 days, hourly candles Nasdaq futures similar action to the S&P, trading sideways up in Friday's upper third of the range, cooling off the overbought hourly/4hr RSI some 352.50 was the Friday high post market
348.95 was the corresponding futures low
QQQ 3 months, daily candles Bit of a different look here than SPY as this is just a straight bounce off the recent lows, with a break of the daily/weekly downtrend but no confirmed uptrend yet. Once this move tops out and daily consolidation begins, we'll look for a higher low anywhere above recent lows (with a shallower retrace on low volume, preferably in the upper 1/3 of the recent bounce, keeping things the healthiest for bulls), and then a pivot to higher highs for uptrend confirmation. Testing the 50 day MA here. 351.79 the high from Friday and first resistance
351.86 the 50 day MA
366.49-366.81 after that
367.99 the 200 day MA overhead 341.55 the low from Friday and first support on this timeframe
337.34 the daily 12ema, the healthiest looking pullback would stay above this level
328.40 after that
317.45 the recent lows from this past Monday, one week ago - an almost 10% bounce off the lows since then
April Vix futures 3 months, daily candles Seeing the consistent volatility crush we had been talking about last week as a pre-requisite for broad market bulls to get a sustainable bounce. As vol comes off really high levels, we'll generally see little tremors of vol spikes back higher; Watching for that to match up with daily consolidation on the indices.
Spot Vix 1 year daily Large volatility crush here also last week, getting the Vix back under 25. Keep in mind mid-20s is still pretty elevated, and we should still expect some wider ranges, both directions; Just not as extreme as when Vix was 30+ Also note on this 1 year view that daily RSI never drops much below the 38-40 level, before some type of mean reversion bounce. We're at 41ish now, so watch for some bounce here to correlate to broad market consolidation on the daily timeframes, as we push closer to those levels.
https://www.briefing.com/stock-market-update [BRIEFING.COM] S&P futures vs fair value: +8.20. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: -13.70.The stock market is on track for a modestly higher start as futures on the S&P 500 trade eight points above fair value.
Global markets began the new week on a mixed note while Japan's Nikkei was closed for Vernal Equinox. A China Eastern Airlines Boeing (BA 180.80, -12.03, -6.2%) 737-800 crashed in Southern China, with reports indicating that there were no survivors among the 132 passengers and crew members.
In Ukraine, the country's leadership refused to give in to Russia's demand to surrender in the Southeastern city of Mariupol. On a related note, Turkish officials reportedly believe that Ukraine and Russia are close to agreeing on fundamental issues.
Most commodity prices are rising again with crude oil futures up $4.65, or 4.4%, at $109.35/bbl while gold is little changed at $1926.00/ozt.
Treasuries are on track for a lower start with the 10-yr yield rising three basis points to 2.18%.
The U.S. session will not see the release of any data today or tomorrow.