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Market Rap 03/20/23 by CTG

SPY / QQQ / Vix

SPY 5 days, hourly candles A lot of futures movement which initially saw a test of the upper end of Fridays range, only to give it all back and flush Fridays lows; Currently trading just above those lows after bouncing to reclaim them 385.18 the pre mkt low

393.06 the corresponding futures high

SPY 3 months, daily candles Inside bar day Friday within Thursdays wide range, after finding resistance around it's daily 12ema(white), and closing back under it's 200 day MA(purple).

Watching for which way that bar breaks today. Some choppy action and wide ranges last week as the Vix trades back in the mid 20s range. (resistance)

392.41 the 150 day MA(orange)

392.80 the 200 day MA(purple)

393.65 the 12ema(white)

394.40 the high from Friday

396.47 (support)

388.55 the low from Friday




QQQ 5 days, hourly candles Nasdaq futures holding up better and trading a bit more muted than the S&P, continuing the relative outperformance from the past couple weeks 306.75 the corresponding futures high

301.58 the pre mkt low

QQQ 3 months, daily candles Tested/Traded not very far off it's 3months highs on Friday, as it continues to ignore the global banking drama. Holding up the broader market the past few weeks and preventing things from getting uglier. Watching for any signs that's changing this week. (resistance)

309.15 the high from Friday

309.27 the 2/15 high


313.68 (support)

303.37 the low from Friday

298.50 the daily 12ema



293.09 the 50 day MA(blue)

(Moving onto April Vix futures, March expires tomorrow) Wicking up into the highest levels it's traded at this year as the banking drama and uncertainty continues, along with pricing in the FOMC rate decision/ Powell press conference event volatility for this Wednesday

Spot Vix 3months, daily candles Opened up in the upper 20s earlier this AM; Currently backing down some into the mid 20s

XLF 5 days, hourly candles Financials breaking under all the lows from last week

IWM 5 days, hourly candles Broke under it's December lows in futures/pre mkt action; Back above there currently [BRIEFING.COM] S&P futures vs fair value: -4.00. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: -9.00.There has been some fickle action in the futures market this morning. Currently, the S&P 500 futures are down 1 point and are trading roughly in line with fair value. The Nasdaq 100 futures are down 4 points and are trading slightly below fair value. The Dow Jones Industrial Average futures are down 8 points and are trading roughly in line with fair value. Investors are lacking conviction this morning as worries about the health of the banking industry persist. News that UBS (UBS) is acquiring Credit Suisse (CS) in an brokered "emergency rescue," that S&P is downgrading Frist Republic Bank (FRC) to B+ from BB+, that central banks are taking a coordinated action to improve U.S. dollar liquidity, and that Warren Buffet has been speaking to members of the Biden Administration about banking issues, according to Bloomberg, has kept the market on edge. Treasury yields have moved off their overnight lows, but remain under pressure despite the news that CS will be acquired by UBS. The 2-yr note yield is down nine basis points to 3.74% and the 10-yr note yield is down two basis points to 3.37%. The U.S. Dollar Index is down 0.2% to 103.47. Energy complex futures are mixed. WTI crude oil futures are down 1.5% to $65.81/bbl and natural gas futures are up 2.3% to $2.50/mmbtu. In corporate news:

  • First Republic Bank (FRC 18.33, -4.70, -20.4%): downgraded at S&P To 'B+' despite support received; rating remains on creditwatch negative; Tom Barrack advising First Republic Bank on its options, according to Bloomberg

  • Credit Suisse (CS 0.8450, -1.16, -58.0%): to be acquired by UBS (UBS 17.70, -0.50, -2.8%); Credit Suisse’s Additional Tier 1 Capital in the aggregate nominal amount of approximately CHF 16 billion will be written off to zero

  • U.S. Bank (USB 33.90, +0.95, +2.9%): upgraded to Outperform from Neutral at Baird

  • PacWest Bancorp (PACW 10.76, +1.48, +16.0%): provides end of week update

  • New York Community (NYCB 8.48, +1.94, +29.7%): acquires certain assets and assumes certain liabilities of Signature Bridge Bank From the FDIC

  • Karuna Therapeutics (KRTX 216.88, +25.25, +13.2%): announces positive results from phase 3 emergent-3 Trial of KarXT in schizophrenia

  • Pinduoduo (PDD 78.93, -13.01, -14.2%): misses by RMB0.19, misses on revs

  • Foot Locker (FL 42.75, +0.49, +1.2%): beats by $0.47, beats on revs; guides FY24 EPS below consensus, revs below consensus

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