Market Rap 03/18/22 by CTG
SPY / QQQ / Vix
SPY 5 days, hourly candles S&P futures consolidating overnight, cooling off hourly/4hr overbought conditions; SPY is also artificially lower by 1.64, due to the ex dividend date being today
441.15 the after hours high before futures opened
435.71 the corresponding futures low so far
SPY 3 months, daily candles Big follow thru yesterday of the daily trend change back to bulls, heading up to test the 50 day MA 441.07 the high from yesterday and first resistance
441.11 the post-Ukraine invasion bounce high from 3/3
442.69 the 50 day MA
445.84 the 200 day MA
448.06 the next major area of resistance after that 433.19 the low from yesterday and first support
(keep in mind SPY will be artificially lower today by 1.64 due to the dividend payout)
429.71 the daily 12ema
415.79 the last daily "higher low" and spot for bulls to defend and stay anywhere above once daily consolidation begins; Retracing that much of this recent move though would be a caution flag
QQQ 5 days, hourly candles Nasdaq futures also consolidating yesterdays gains overnight 344.67 the after hours high before futures opened
340.80 the corresponding futures low
QQQ 3 months, daily candles Downtrend is broken but no confirmed new daily uptrend yet, until this move tops out and daily consolidation begins. Then bulls look to find a "higher low" above recent lows, then pivot to a "higher high" thru wherever this move tops out at.
Nice follow thru upward yesterday and another close above the 12ema (white line). 344.50 the high from yesterday and first resistance
(Into the biggest volume profile area)
350.04 after that (the post Ukraine invasion bounce high from 3/3)
352.52 the 50 day MA 337.04 the low from yesterday and first support
334.77 the daily 12ema
328.40 after that
317.45 the recent low, and bulls would look to find a higher low anywhere above there, with their hope being we don't see more than a 50% retrace of this recent up move, whenever it tops out and that daily consolidation starts
IWM 6 months, daily candles First close above the 50 day MA since November of last year, where the selling in small caps started to pick up steam.
Watching to see if we can hold above there into next week, as the post Fed reactions get digested and work their way thru markets. 205.21 the high from yesterday as first resistance, as it tested that
205.30 resistance from 3/2 (the post Ukraine invasion bounce high)
207.27, 209.05 after that
On the support side, 202.61 is that 50 day MA which bulls would like to stay above
200.30 the low from yesterday as next important support after that
191.88 the most recent pivot low
April Vix futures 3 months, daily candles Finally seeing meaningful back off here in the Vix
Daily inside bar day so far, we were a bit extended to the downside on the shorter term timeframes (hourly, 4hr)
Watching to see which way today breaks with quad witching options expiration in play
Daily bear flag potential here if it cant push back over 28ish or so
Spot Vix 3 months, daily candles Decisively back under 30, so the daily ranges in the broad markets will compress some; But remember a Vix over 25 is still pretty elevated and whippage both directions should be expected. Inside bar day so far today, watching to see which way that breaks
27.47 the high from yesterday, and a potential daily bear flag if it cant push back above there
25.25 yesterdays low for the bear break, and potential downside follow thru under the 25 area
Futures cooling off from three-day rally
18-Mar-22 08:00 ET
Market is Closed
[BRIEFING.COM] S&P futures vs fair value: -24.00. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: -103.00.
The S&P 500 futures trade 24 points, or 0.6%, below fair value after a three-day rally in which the S&P 500 rose 5.7%. There are lingering concerns regarding Russia's invasion of Ukraine.
U.S. officials believe that Russia will use "brandish threats" to use nuclear weapons against the West amid Ukrainian resistance, according to Bloomberg, and are worried that China is moving closer to supporting Russia's war in Ukraine. President Biden will reportedly call Chinese President Xi at 9:00 a.m. ET today to try and convince him not to do that.
WTI crude futures, which jumped more than 8.0% yesterday, are currently up 0.9% to $103.80/bbl after Russian missiles struck just outside Lyiv, a city close to Poland where many Ukrainians have been sheltering.
U.S. Treasury yields are moving lower amid the negative bias in the futures market and the negative-sounding geopolitical headlines. The 2-yr yield is down five basis points to 1.89%, and the 10-yr yield is down five basis points to 2.14%. The U.S. Dollar Index is up 0.4% to 98.39.
Separately, Saint Louis Fed President Bullard (voting FOMC member) told CNBC that he wanted the Fed to begin reducing the balance sheet last meeting and that interest rates this year should be above 3% to bring inflation under control. On a related note, the Bank of Japan made no policy changes, keeping its interest on excess reserves at -0.1%, as expected.
Today's economic data will include Existing Home Sales for February (Briefing.com consensus 6.20 million) and the Conference Board's Leading Economic Index for February at 10:00 a.m. ET. (Note some Fed chatter today and Quad witching options expiration)