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Market Rap 03/17/23 by CTG

SPY / QQQ / Vix

SPY 5 days, hourly candles S&P futures consolidating yesterdays gains off hourly overbought conditions 393.02 the pre mkt low so far

396.69 the corresponding futures high

SPY 3 months, daily candles Held recent lows and pivoted to higher highs over Tuesdays highs on heavy volume, confirming a new daily uptrend. Back above the 200 day MA(purple) and closed above the daily 12ema(white), but currently back below that level by a tad here pre mkt. (resistance)

396.47 the high from yesterday

399.72 the 50 day MA(blue)

401.48 (support)

392.91 that 200 day MA

392.61 the 150 day MA(orange)

386.29 the low from yesterday

QQQ 5 days, hourly candles Nasdaq futures once again holding up much better, trading sideways at yesterdays highs 308.03 the corresponding futures high

306.30 the corresponding futures low

QQQ 3 months, daily candles Big push over all recent highs yesterday, on heavy volume, off the 12ema(white). Not far from testing 3month highs. 4hr RSI starting to push into overbought territory, so some short term consolidation of these big recent gains won't be a surprise when it hits; No sign of that so far though. (resistance)

307.18 the high from yesterday - trading a tad above there currently for the gap up open possibility



312.39-313.68 (support)

297.25 that daily 12ema

297.19 the low from yesterday


292.30 the 50 day MA(blue)

290.12 the 200 day MA(purple)

285.19 the recent lows

IWM 3 months, daily candles Curling off daily oversold conditions and the December lows

March Vix futures 3 months, daily candles Big vol crush yesterday; Pushed under yesterdays lows earlier this AM but pushing back above those lows currently as morning fears of banking turmoil creep back in. Will this bounce be reversed or will it look more like the action from 3/14-3/15 and surge back to recent highs? Stay tuned.

Spot Vix 3 months, daily candles Seeing some bounce off the lower 20s area, and the spot where it broke out from last Friday

XLF 3 months, daily candles Reversal doji candle from Wednesday confirmed yesterday, as the daily oversold bounce got underway.

Will we see more follow thru up, or just a daily bear flag setting up?

Trading in the middle of yesterdays range currently here pre mkt. [BRIEFING.COM] S&P futures vs fair value: -7.00. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: +26.00.The S&P 500 futures are down 9 points and are trading 0.2% below fair value. The Nasdaq 100 futures are up 17 points and are trading 0.2% above fair value. The Dow Jones Industrial Average futures are down 119 points and are trading 0.3% below fair value. The equity futures market has been mixed this morning. Investors are hesitant after yesterday's rally due to weakness again in bank stocks, particularly First Republic Bank (FRC), acting as a headwind. Reports indicate that banks borrowed $11.9 billion from the Bank Term Funding Program and a record $153 billion from the Fed's discount window for the week ending March 15. In other central bank news, The People's Bank of China announced a 25-bps cut to the reserve requirement ratio, which will be effective March 27. Treasury yields are fading this morning. The 10-yr note yield is down eight basis points to 3.50% and the 2-yr note yield is down two basis points to 4.11%. Market participants will receive the following economic data today:

  • 9:15 a.m. ET: February Industrial Production ( consensus 0.5%; prior 0.0%) and Capacity Utilization ( consensus 78.5%; prior 78.3%)

  • 10:00 a.m. ET: February Leading Indicators ( consensus -0.4%; prior -0.3%) and March Univ. of Michigan Consumer Sentiment - Prelim ( consensus 67.2; prior 67.0)

In corporate news:

  • FedEx (FDX 227.92, +23.87, +11.7%): beats by $0.67, misses on revs; raises FY23 EPS guidance

  • Sarepta Therapeutics (SRPT 123.98, -25.69, -17.2%): moving lower after FDA determines that an advisory committee meeting will be held for SRP-9001

  • NVIDIA (NVDA 259.96, +4.55, +1.8%): upgraded to Overweight from Equal Weight at Morgan Stanley

  • Bumble (BMBL 19.55, +0.18, +0.9%): Citi initiated coverage with a Buy

  • First Republic Bank (FRC 29.60, -4.67, -13.6%): confirms it will receive $30 bln; provides cash position update; will suspend dividend

  • U.S. Steel (X 25.35, +0.83, +3.4%): guides Q1 EPS above consensus; expects trends to continue into Q2

  • Bidu (BIDU 144.50, +6.35, +4.6%): wins China Capital City's first-ever permit to provide fully driverless ride-hailing service

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