Market Rap 03/17/22 by CTG
SPY / QQQ / Vix
SPY 5 days, hourly candles S&P futures cooling off hourly, 4hr overbought conditions in the upper third of yesterdays range 437.20 the after hours high before futures opened
432.65 the corresponding futures low
SPY 3 months, daily candles Back above the 12ema (white line) with a daily trend change back to bulls, on elevated volume. Into the biggest chunk of volume profile here. We'll see how the rest of the week closes out as the after Fed reaction works it way thru markets. 435.68 the high from yesterday and first resistance
443.42 the 50 day MA
We had the famed "death cross" on Monday (50 day MA crosses below the 200 day MA) and have rallied ever since. Certainly could be more downside ahead, but the death cross indicator can also be a very laggy and late sell signal 427.65 the 12ema
424.80 the low from yesterday and important support, bulls don't want to see the after Powell reaction lows broken; that would be the next caution flag (with any break below the 12ema being the first initial caution flag)
415.12-415.79 the last daily "higher low" area, and that would be the spot bears would have to break lower under for bulls to lose this current uptrend *Keep in mind the weekly timeframe is still in a downtrend
QQQ 5 days, hourly candles Nasdaq futures similar look to the S&P, cooling off hourly and 4hr overbought conditions in the upper third of yesterdays large range 342.01 the after hours high before futures opened
337.50 the corresponding futures low
QQQ 3 months, daily candles Push/close back over the 12ema (white line) and bulls broke the daily timeframe downtrend, but will need a hold of recent lows and then a pivot to higher highs once consolidation of this move begins, to confirm a new uptrend. Weekly downtrend still in play. 340.44 the high from yesterday and first resistance
341.38 after that and where the biggest chunks of recent volume profile start to come into play, and last up until 349ish
350.04 candle resistance from 3/3 after that
353.56 the 50 day MA 333.01 the daily 12ema and spot for bulls to stay above to prove control/strength
Note that any break above this line, all this year, has only lasted a few days; and after breaking back below we saw some significant drawdowns
328.40 the low from yesterday and next support
317.45 the recent low, which was a slight break under the Ukraine invasion low that saw no follow thru, and a quick reversal the other direction
April Vix futures 3 months, daily candles A positive sign for broad market bulls that we saw some meaningful back off here yesterday, under the lows from 3/11. Multiple days/weeks of this backing down with little "tremors" of vol in between has been the playbook in the past. This will be important to watch in the next few days, weeks.
Spot Vix 3 months, daily candles A meaningful break under 30 and under the 3/11 lows here. This should calm the crazy intraday moves some, but a Vix over 25 is still telling us there will be some significant movement intraday, both directions.
Multiple days/weeks of this backing down is what the broad market bulls are looking for here. Note that the tests of the 1/24 Fed highs, recent highs, were tested on 2/24 (Ukraine invasion) and again recently on 3/8 and were rejected. Trading in yesterdays lower third of the range so far today, we'll see if we get an inside bar day or any further breakdown.
23.88ish is the next area of "support" to watch, the 2/16 lows
Futures slip post-FOMC day
17-Mar-22 08:00 ET
Market is Closed
[BRIEFING.COM] S&P futures vs fair value: -8.20. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: -82.30.
The S&P 500 futures trade eight points, or 0.2%, below fair value as the market digests yesterday's FOMC decision, higher oil prices ($99.97, +4.93, +5.2%), continued curve-flattening activity in the Treasury market, and the latest Russia-Ukraine news.
Chinese stocks extended their rebound rally on Thursday, following U.S. markets higher, after China continued to pledge support for the economy. U.S. futures and European stocks, however, have stayed put today amid news that Russia said reports describing progress in peace talks are "wrong," according to Bloomberg.
That news has helped lift oil prices while the Treasury market continues to show concerns about the Fed potentially hindering economic growth with a policy mistake. Yesterday, the Fed delivered a quarter-point hike, as expected, and signaled six more rate hikes this year.
The 2-yr yield is currently down three basis points to 1.94%, and the 10-yr yield is down five basis points to 2.14%. The 5-yr yield, which is down six basis points, is also trading at 2.14%. The U.S. Dollar Index is down 0.4% to 98.24.
On the data front, investors will receive Housing Starts (Briefing.com consensus 1.700 million) and Building Permits (Briefing.com consensus 1.860 million) for February, weekly Initial Claims (Briefing.com consensus 224,000), and the Philadelphia Fed Index for March (Briefing.com consensus 14.0) at 8:30 a.m. ET.
Afterwards, Industrial Production (Briefing.com consensus 0.5%) and Capacity Utilization (Briefing.com consensus 77.9%) for February will be released at 9:15 a.m. ET.