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Market Rap 03/16/23 by CTG

SPY / QQQ / Vix

SPY 5 days, hourly candles S&P futures broke over yesterdays RTH highs before hitting their head on yesterdays low end of the futures range 391.36 the corresponding futures high

387.53 the pre mkt low

SPY 3 months, daily candles A lot of volume the past few days as we slog thru this global banking crisis. Below the 200 day MA(purple), 12ema(white), and 50 day MA(blue). Daily and weekly downtrend in play; bulls have work to do to repair the charts. Holding above the December lows is Step 1.(support)

383.71 the low from yesterday

380.65 Mondays low


374.77 the December low (resistance)

389.49 the high from yesterday

392.77 the 150 day MA(orange)

393.01 the 200 day MA

393.99 the falling 12ema

QQQ 5 days, hourly candles Nasdaq futures keeping the theme of recent outperformance going - broke over yesterdays highs and currently trading just above there 300.58 the corresponding futures high

298.67 the pre mkt low

QQQ 3 months, daily candles Tech has been carrying the broad markets on their back recently, keeping everything from falling apart in the midst of banking chaos. Holding above the 50% retrace of the Dec low to Feb high; also trading above it's 200 day MA(purple), 50 day MA(blue) and the 12ema(white). "Golden cross" happened Monday. The trend the past month can probably best be described as sideways, which is a different look than what we've seen in the S&P 500 and especially small caps, which are testing their Dec. lows. (resistance)

299.27 the high from yesterday - trading a tad above there currently for the gap up open possibility


304 (support)

295.52 that daily 12ema

291.45 the 50 day MA

290.14 the 200 day MA

285.19 Mondays low

March Vix futures 3 months, daily candles Pulled off against Mondays highs yesterday after a very brief peek thru; Trading in the middle of yesterdays range currently

Spot Vix 3 months, daily candles Another test of the 30 handle yesterday followed by a pullback to the mid 20s range, where we're trading currently [BRIEFING.COM] S&P futures vs fair value: -7.00. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: +32.00.The S&P 500 futures are down 5 points and are trading 0.2% below fair value. The Nasdaq 100 futures are up 34 points and are trading 0.3% above fair value. The Dow Jones Industrial Average futures are down 90 points and are trading 0.3% below fair value. The equity futures market is mixed this morning as investors weigh ongoing concerns about the banking sector after Bloomberg reported that First Republic Bank (FRC) is considering a sale and Fitch placed Western Alliance Bancorporation (WAL) on rating watch negative. The Nasdaq 100 futures have been outperforming due to some favoritism for high quality growth names, helped along by pleasing earnings and guidance from Adobe (ADBE). Participants are nervously anticipating the European Central Bank (ECB) policy rate decision at 9:15 a.m. ET. Reports suggest the ECB is still leaning toward a 50-basis points rate hike. The 2-yr Treasury note yield is down two basis points to 3.94% and the 10-yr note yield is down three basis points to 3.46%. Market participants will receive the following economic data today:

  • 8:30 ET: Weekly Initial Claims ( consensus 215,000; prior 211,000), Continuing Claims (prior 1.718 mln), February Housing Starts ( consensus 1.313 mln; prior 1.309 mln), Building Permits ( consensus 1.345 mln; prior 1.339 mln), March Philadelphia Fed survey ( consensus -13.0; prior -24.3), February Import Prices (prior -0.2%), Import Prices ex-oil (prior 0.3%), Export Prices (prior 0.8%), and Export Prices ex-agriculture (prior 0.8%)

  • 10:30 ET: Weekly natural gas inventories (prior -84 bcf)

In corporate news:

  • Credit Suisse (CS 2.2700, +0.11, +5.1%): takes decisive action to pre-emptively strengthen liquidity and announces public tender offers for debt securities

  • Adobe (ADBE 352.00, +18.4, +5.5%): beats by $0.12, reports revs in-line; guides MayQ EPS in-line, revs in-line; guides FY23 EPS above consensus

  • First Republic Bank (FRC 22.76, -8.40, -27.0%): considers sale, according to Bloomberg

  • Meta Platforms (META 201.20, +3.45, +1.7%) and Snap (SNAP 11.03, +0.69, +6.7%): US demanding TikTok’s Chinese owners to sell stakes or face a possible US ban, according to WSJ

  • Western Alliance Bancorp. (WAL 28.82, -3.53, -10.9%): Fitch Places Western Alliance Bancorporation on rating watch negative

  • Dollar General (DG 214.00, -4.56, -2.1%): reports EPS in-line, revs in-line; reaffirms FY24 EPS guidance, guides FY24 revs in-line; raises dividend

  • Signet Jewelers (SIG 69.45, +1.57, +2.3%): beats by $0.09, reports revs in-line; guides Q1 revs below consensus; guides FY24 EPS above consensus, revs below consensus; Q4 comps -9.1%; increased its share buyback program by $263 million

  • Five Below, Inc. (FIVE 191.00, -7.17, -3.6%): reports EPS in-line, beats on revs, comps of +1.9%; guides AprQ EPS below consensus, revs in-line, comps of +2.5-4.0%; guides FY24 EPS in-line, revs in-line, comps of +1-4%

  • PagerDuty, Inc. (PD 29.61, +1.77, +6.4%): beats by $0.06, beats on revs; guides Q1 EPS above consensus, revs below consensus; guides FY24 EPS above consensus, revs in-line

  • UiPath Inc. (PATH 16.88, +2.24, +15.3%): beats by $0.08, beats on revs; guides Q1 revs above consensus; guides FY24 revs above consensus

  • Intel (INTC 28.52, +0.11, +0.4%): upgraded to Neutral from Negative at Susquehanna

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