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Market Rap 03/16/22 by CTG

SPY / QQQ / Vix

SPY 5 days, hourly candles S&P futures seeing big follow thru over yesterday's RTH highs, setting up for the gap up open. Hourly RSI heated and pushing 80. 424.70 the corresponding futures low

431.80 the corresponding futures high

SPY 3 months, daily candles A strong push yesterday up to the 12ema (white line) with a gap up open setting up today over recent resistances, which would break the downtrend. These big opening moves have been faded recently, so with the Fed and Powell ahead we'll see how we close, with lots of whippage expected in between. 426.84 the high from yesterday, trading well above there now for the big gap up open set up

428.77-429.51 are the most recent daily "lower highs" - also trading above there currently

432.30-433.37 after that

433.80 open gap 418.42 the low from yesterday and first support

415.79, 415.12 then

410.64 the Ukraine invasion low

QQQ 5 days, hourly candles Nasdaq futures also seeing some strong follow thru over yesterdays highs, big gap up open coming ahead of the Fed release/Powell presser. Hourly RSI hawt at 80. 372.40 the corresponding futures low

335 the corresponding futures high

QQQ 3 months, daily candles A break of the Ukraine invasion lows yesterday, with no follow thru and a quick reversal the other direction giving bulls some hope.

328.95 the high from yesterday - trading well above there now for the large gap up open 331.68 the 12ema, which we're also currently above 334.64 then 336.38 338.41, 341.31 after that 319.23 the low from yesterday and first support 317.45 recent low after that

April Vix futures 3 months, daily candles Yesterday saw the entire up move from Monday erased, following down today to test the lows from Friday

Spot Vix 3 months, daily candles A push under 30 last Friday was quickly reversed, with upside follow thru Monday. Then yesterday saw a bearish engulf candle of Mondays move, with follow thru down today under those lows from Friday. This will provide a broad market tailwind if we see some consistent consolidation down. Futures extend rebound rally

16-Mar-22 08:00 ET

Market is Closed

[BRIEFING.COM] S&P futures vs fair value: +59.50. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: +235.00.The S&P 500 futures trade 60 points, or 1.4%, above fair value in a continuation of yesterday's rebound rally ahead of key economic data and the Fed's policy decision. The latest Russia-Ukraine headlines might be fueling the gains, even as Russia continues to launch missiles at Kyiv.

Briefly, Ukraine President Zelensky said peace talks were sounding more realistic, and Russia's foreign minister said some parts of a peace deal model are close to an agreement. Mr. Zelensky, however, acknowledged that the two sides are not close to deal while CNBC reminded viewers that Russia's words should be taken with a grain of salt.

Still, the market appears to be relishing the idea of a ceasefire agreement with talks continuing today and foreign equities sporting big gains. On a related note, President Zelensky is scheduled to speak to the U.S. Congress at 9:00 a.m. ET.

As for today's data, investors will receive Retail Sales for February ( consensus 0.4%) and Import/Export Prices for February at 8:30 a.m. ET, followed by the NAHB Housing Market Index for March ( consensus 81) and Business Inventories for January at 10:00 a.m. ET.

The FOMC will publish its policy statement and updated economic projections at 2:00 p.m. ET, and Fed Chair Powell will discuss the Fed's thinking at 2:30 p.m. ET. The Fed is widely expected to raise the fed funds rate by 25 basis points, so investors will listen to Mr. Powell for any hints on future rate hikes and the balance-sheet reduction process.

U.S. Treasuries are holding tight near their flat lines. The 2-yr yield is unchanged at 1.86%, and the 10-yr yield is up one basis point to 2.17%. The U.S. Dollar Index is down 0.6% to 98.51. WTI crude futures are down 0.3% to $96.16/bbl amid news that Russia has softened demands in Iran nuclear deal talks, according to The Wall Street Journal.

"The central bank is widely expected to raise interest rates by a quarter of a percentage point, bringing an end to the "transitory era" that some are dubbing as one of the worst Fed inflation calls of all time. Currently, markets are pricing in seven rate hikes this year, which would average a 25 basis point hike for each meeting remaining in 2022, though Powell has emphasized that policymakers aren't on "auto-pilot" and need to be nimble in assessing incoming data." "Keep an eye on the scale and pace of the coming tightening cycle with the release of the Fed's latest 'dot plot.' At his press conference at 2:30 p.m. ET, Powell is also expected to provide more guidance on the central bank's plan for shrinking its nearly $9T balance sheet. Earlier this month, the Fed Chair said he expected the runoff would "take about three years to get where it needs to be" during his Congressional testimony on Capitol Hill."

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