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Market Rap 03/15/23 by CTG

SPY / QQQ / Vix

SPY 5 days, hourly candles S&P futures seeing a waterfall drop the last couple hours on Credit Suisse/banking woes; Testing yesterdays pre mkt lows currently 383.77 the pre mkt low

392.87 the corresponding futures high

SPY 3 months, daily candles Daily bounce got underway yesterday but topped out right around the 200 day MA(purple), with another close underneath. Trading under yesterdays RTH lows currently, so yesterdays highs might be the next daily "lower high" getting set already; if bulls cant play defense/go back on offense early on.(resistance)

393.09 that 200 day MA

393.45 the high from yesterday

394.85 the falling 12ema(white)(support)

387.05 the low from yesterday - trading under there currently for the gap down open



374.77 the Dec. low

QQQ 5 days, hourly candles Nasdaq futures trying to hold above yesterdays lows currently 292.05 the pre mkt low

298.48 the corresponding futures high

QQQ 3 months, daily candles The pullback here continues to be more moderate than other parts of the market - attempting to hold above the 50% retrace of the Dec low to Feb high, the 50 day MA, and the 200 day MA (and put the "golden cross" in play yesterday). Daily bounce got underway yesterday, but a break and follow thru under yesterdays lows would set yesterdays high as the next daily "lower high" already. (resistance)

297.93 the high from yesterday (support)

293.45 the low from yesterday - trading under there currently by a tad

290.80 the 50 day MA(blue)

290.14 the 200 day MA(purple)

287.84 the 150 day MA(orange)

285.19 the recent lows


March Vix futures 3 months, daily candles Back over yesterdays highs currently, pushing up to test the recent upper end

Spot Vix 3 months, daily candles Big move here pre mkt as well, pushing back into the upper 20s again

$DXY 3months, daily candles Seeing a bounce off it's 50 day MA(blue) The S&P 500 futures are down 74 points and are trading 1.9% below fair value. The Nasdaq 100 futures are down 188 points and are trading 1.4% below fair value. The Dow Jones Industrial Average futures are down 581 points and are trading 1.8% below fair value. A sentiment-driven retreat has taken root in the equity futures market as issues at Credit Suisse (CS) reignite selling efforts in the financial sector. Notably, Credit Suisse's largest shareholder, Saudi National Bank, said it cannot offer further help. That revelation has stoked large losses in European bank stocks and has stirred renewed angst in the banking sector here in the U.S. Other limiting factors this morning include reports that the Fed is mulling tougher capital requirements for midsize banks, BlackRock CEO Larry Fink highlighting in his annual letter the potential for a liquidity crunch, and weakness in the mega cap stocks. China reported mixed industrial production, retail sales, and fixed asset investment data for February in front of the retail sales and Producer Price Index reports from the U.S. at 8:30 a.m. ET. Treasuries and the dollar reflect this morning's risk-off mentality. The 2-yr note yield is down 14 basis points to 4.06% and the 10-yr note yield is down 10 basis points to 3.53%. The U.S. Dollar Index is up 1.0% to 104.66. In corporate news:

  • Credit Suisse (CS 1.97, -0.54, -21.5%): top shareholder rules out additional investments, according to Bloomberg

  • Lennar (LEN 103.30, +2.53, +2.5%): beats by $0.57, beats on revs; guides for FY23 deliveries of 62,000-66,000

  • SentinelOne (S 14.57, +0.10, +0.7%): beats by $0.03, beats on revs; guides AprQ revs above consensus; guides FY24 revs below consensus

  • Smartsheet (SMAR 42.60, +4.28, +11.2%): beats by $0.08, beats on revs; guides AprQ EPS above consensus, revs below consensus; guides FY24 EPS above consensus, revs below consensus

  • Freshpet (FRPT 49.00, -6.67, -12.0%): to offer $350 mln in convertible notes in a private offering

  • Guess? (GES 19.99, -1.28, -6.0%): beats by $0.44, beats on revs; guides Q1 EPS below two analyst estimate, revs below two analyst estimate; guides FY24 EPS below two analyst estimate, revs in-line

  • SPDR S&P Bank ETF (KBE 36.50, -1.02, -2.7%): many banks trading lower in wake of Credit Suisse developments

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