Market Rap 03/15/22 by CTG
SPY / QQQ / Vix
SPY 5 days, hourly candles S&P futures broke yesterdays RTH lows, and tested the lows from 3/8 before bouncing 413.61 the corresponding futures low
418.72 the corresponding futures high
SPY 3 months, daily candles Continuous rejections of the 12ema (white line) pushing us back lower to test the Ukraine invasion lows 415.79 the low from yesterday and first support
415.12 after that
413.61 the futures low from today
410.64 the Ukraine invasion low 424.55 the high from yesterday and first resistance
426.20 the 12ema
428.77-429.51 after that
QQQ 5 days, hourly candles Nasdaq futures flushed under yesterdays lows, and under the Ukraine invasion low before attempting this current bounce 315.71 the corresponding futures low
320.54 the corresponding futures high
QQQ 1 year, daily candles Zooming out to find the next levels lower after breaking recent supports 317.45 the low from yesterday and first support
315.71 the futures low
316-316.30 area next from May '21
307.39 from March '21 326.59 the high from yesterday and first resistance
332.32 the 12ema
334.64-336.38 after that
QQQ weekly candles, last 3 years Weekly RSI getting close to oversold, last time was near the Covid low
TLT 3 year, weekly candles Surging interest rates contributing to the extra weakness we're seeing in the Nasdaq.
TLT losing it's last area of support from the past year, and now heading into prices last seen in July of 2019.
131.40 from then and
129.68 after that Weekly RSI is close to getting oversold here as well, last time was the Covid crash where it saw the weekly RSI get down to 22ish. Currently we're around 32ish.
April Vix futures 3 months, daily candles
(March expires today) Long vol funds like VXX and UVXY will primarily be moved by this April contract now, and each day the May vix futures will creep into the calculation.*Note, VXX is experiencing tracking errors as of yesterday, and is trading higher than where it "should" be based on the Vix futures. More info in the link below. Seeing some upper wicks of selling today, but heading up to test recent highs, and refusing to back down still. A broad market rally won't sustain until this starts seeing some consistent giveback.
https://twitter.com/saqibreports/status/1503372554584694787?s=21 Spot Vix 3 months, daily candles The break under 30 from Friday saw no follow thru and a quick move back higher, which saw follow thru yesterday and some more today. Its very hard to sustain a Vix this high, but so far all the wide intraday ranges and consistent weakness have been able to. If this were to take a meaningful leg higher from here, the broad market indices would take another large leg lower.
Until this backs off consistently, that's a very plausible scenario.
Futures edge higher as oil prices extend pullback
15-Mar-22 07:58 ET
Market is Closed
[BRIEFING.COM] S&P futures vs fair value: +7.70. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: +50.50.
The S&P 500 futures have recouped overnight losses and trade eight points, or 0.2%, above fair value as oil prices fall to $95 per barrel ($95.02, -7.99, -7.9%).
Stocks in China weren't so lucky on Tuesday, plagued by COVID-19 lockdowns, de-listing concerns, and the potential for U.S. sanctions if found to be helping Russia's invasion. China's Shanghai Composite dropped 5.0% (-7.4% for the week), and Hong Kong's Hang Seng dropped 5.7% (-10.4% for the week).
The Chinese lockdowns are being cited as factor driving oil prices lower due to reduced demand. European stocks, meanwhile, are trying to recover, but the Europe Stoxx 600 is still down 0.9% right now.
Back on the home front, the Fed will begin its two-policy meeting today while investors wait for the Producer Price Index for February (Briefing.com consensus 1.0%) at 8:30 a.m. ET. The Empire State Manufacturing Survey for March (Briefing.com consensus 9.0) will be released at the same time, followed by TIC Net Long-Term Transactions for January at 4:00 p.m. ET.
Separately, Coupa Software (COUP 63.00, -26.82, -29.9%) is the latest growth stock that's taken another plunge on disappointing guidance. COUP shares are down 30% in pre-market action.
U.S. Treasuries trade little changed in front of the inflation data. The 2-yr yield is down one basis point to 1.83%, and the 10-yr yield is down one basis point to 2.13%. The U.S. Dollar Index is down 0.2% amid relative strength in the euro, which is up 0.5% against the dollar to 1.0986.