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Market Rap 03/14/23 by CTG

SPY / QQQ / Vix

SPY 5 days, hourly candles S&P futures trading mostly sideways, but starting to break upward currently, ahead of the next CPI report at 8:30et 385.23 the after hours low from yesterday before futures opened

388.43 the pre mkt high so far

SPY 3 months, daily candles Starting to test December support areas, and a big chunk of volume profile support here, on heavy volume Friday/Monday. (support)

380.65 the low from yesterday


374.77 the Dec. low( resistance)

390.39 the high from yesterday

393.06 the 150 day MA(orange)

393.12 the 200 day MA(purple)

393.16 the high from Friday

395.41 the falling 12ema(white)

QQQ 5 days, hourly candles Nasdaq futures also mostly sideways overnight; Starting to lean upward here currently ahead of that 8:30et CPI report 293.01 the pre mkt high so far

290.54 the after hours low from yesterday before futures opened

QQQ 3 months, daily candles Odd time for the 50 day MA(blue) to be crossing the 200 day MA(purple), but here we are for the technical "golden cross". Yesterdays bounce attempt topped out right at the daily 12ema(white), then closed just back above those 50/200 day MA's; as this holds up better in the recent pullback than SPY or IWM. (support)

290.18 that 50 day MA

290.11 that 200 day MA

287.99 the 150 day MA(orange)

285.19 the low from yesterday

281.18 (resistance)

294.45 that daily 12ema

294.47 the high from yesterday


March Vix futures 3 months, daily candles Big move and higher highs yesterday to test levels last seen in October of last year; Trading in the middle of yesterdays range currently, awaiting the CPI report

Spot Vix 6 months, daily candles Follow thru yesterday briefly up thru the 30 handle (30.81 high); Trading in the middle of yesterdays wide range currently, closer to the mid 20s levels.

TLT 6 months, daily candles A massive gap up open yesterday right into important weekly resistance, and top out areas from early December, then early February. Backfilled the whole day and went flat by close; Trading right around yesterdays lows currently, awaiting CPI.

$DXY 3months, daily candles The dollar back down continues, after seeing a brief peek thru early January resistance on 3/8, which turned into a doji reversal candle by close that was confirmed the next day. [BRIEFING.COM] S&P futures vs fair value: +23.00. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: +73.00.The S&P 500 futures are up 28 points and are trading 0.6% above fair value. The Nasdaq 100 futures are up 81 points and are trading 0.6% above fair value. The Dow Jones Industrial Average futures are up 202 points and are trading 1.0% above fair value. A sentiment-driven rebound effort has taken root in the equity futures market with the bank stocks showing big gains this morning and panic buying in the Treasury market abating. The 2-yr note yield is up 20 basis points to 4.23% and the 10-yr note yield is up 11 basis points to 3.62%. The closely watched Consumer Price Index is coming out at 8:30 a.m. ET, which will help inform Fed's next interest rate move. On a related note, the CME FedWatch Tool now reflects a 67.2% probability of a 25 basis points rate hike and a 32.8% probability of no rate hike at the March FOMC meeting. Other data released today was limited to the February NFIB Small Business Optimism (actual 90.9; prior 90.3). WTI crude oil futures are down 1.7% to $73.56/bbl and natural gas futures are down 0.7% to $2.71/mmbtu. In corporate news:

  • First Republic Bank (FRC 44.61, +13.40, +42.9%) and PacWest (PACW 13.18, +3.43, +35.2%): big rebound after sharp declines in recent sessions

  • Western Alliance Bancorp (WAL 34.47, +8.35, +32.0%): Wells Fargo reiterated its Overweight rating

  • Uber (UBER 32.77, +1.95, +6.3%) and Lyft (LYFT 32.77, +1.95, +6.3%): California Court of Appeal upheld Prop 22 Decision that "protects the independence drivers value and gives them new, historic benefits"

  • United Airlines (UAL 46.58, -2.25, -4.6%): guides Q1 earnings well below consensus; related to potential new collective bargaining agreement; expects Q1 CASM-ex to be flat to positive 1%; reiterates FY23 CASM-ex outlook of approx. flat yr/yr; reiterates FY23 EPS

  • Delta Airlines (DAL 35.91, +0.23, +0.6%): reaffirming its outlook, previously provided on January 13, 2023, for the March quarter

  • GitLab (GTLB 31.54, -13.06, -29.3%): beats by $0.11, beats on revs; guides Q1 EPS above consensus, revs below consensus; guides FY24 EPS above consensus, revs below consensus

  • Honeywell (HON 193.85, +0.75, +0.4%): names Vimal Kapur as CEO effective June 1, 2023

  • Bunge Limited (BG 99.55, +8.16, +8.9%): will replace Signature Bank (SBNY) in the S&P 500 effective prior to the opening of trading on Wednesday, March 15.

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