Market Rap 03/14/22 by CTG
SPY / QQQ / Vix
S&P futures held Friday's lows overnight and bounced, now giving much of that back and re-testing the lower end of Friday's range 420.68 the corresponding futures low so far
425.05 the corresponding futures high
SPY 3 months, daily candles What was looking like a possible daily trend change setting up Friday pre mkt turned into a fail around the daily 12ema (white line), and strong reversal with a bearish engulfing candle close 419.53 the low from Friday and first support
415.12 after that
410.64 Ukraine invasion lows all that's left then before we zoom out to find the next areas of possible support 427.88 the daily 12ema
428.77-429.51 resistance area
QQQ 5 days, hourly candles Different look here - the Nasdaq futures had held Fridays lows and bounced overnight but now are convincingly flushing those Friday levels 328 the corresponding futures high
322.54 the corresponding futures low so far
QQQ 3 months, daily candles A bullish pre mkt here Friday was also swiftly reversed after the open, with a fail at the 12ema (white line) and bearish engulf candle close 323.90 the low from Friday, trading under there currently for the gap down open
318.26 Ukraine invasion lows as last recent support before we zoom out and look for the next levels 334.64 the high from Friday and first resistance
334.90 the daily 12ema
336.38 after that
TLT 15 days, 4hr candles and 3yr, weekly candles Interest rates surging again this morning ahead of the Fed's first expected rate hike on Wednesday. Certainly not doing tech stocks any favors 133ish and then 130ish next weekly supports as the RSI gets closer to oversold territory on the weekly time frame
April Vix futures 3 months, daily candles
(March Vix futures expire tomorrow) The meaningful breakdown on Friday was reversed, with half of those losses regained by close.
Trading within Fridays range so far, but testing the upper end.
Spot Vix 3 months, daily candles An attempt to push under 30 on Friday was reversed, with some more follow thru upward this morning.
Until this refuses to back off meaningfully and consistently, it's a red flag for any broad market equity rally and seems to be telegraphing lower lows.
S&P 500 futures edge higher amid lower oil prices
14-Mar-22 08:00 ET
Market is Closed
[BRIEFING.COM] S&P futures vs fair value: +21.70. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: -6.30.The S&P 500 futures trade 22 points, or 0.5%, above fair value to start the week as oil prices continue to cool off from last week's highs. WTI crude futures are currently down 4.9%, or $5.31, to $103.95/bbl.
The lower oil prices have been driven by news that Russia and Ukraine are holding another round of ceasefire talks today, that China re-imposed Covid lockdowns and travel restrictions in certain cities, and that India might buy discounted oil from Russia.
Regarding Russia-Ukraine, Ukraine President Zelensky said he's seen a positive shift in talks with Russia (echoing Mr. Putin's perspective) on Saturday, only for Russia to continue its deadly offensive the following day and ask China for military equipment.
White House National Security Advisor Jake Sullivan said on the "Face the Nation" show, aired on CBS News, that Russia appears to be planning a chemical or biological weapon attack in Ukraine. Mr. Sullivan reiterated the president's stance that Moscow will face a "severe price" if that happens.
The idea of a ceasefire agreement, though, has taken precedence in Europe while the lockdown news took a toll on Chinese stocks on Monday. The Europe Stoxx 600 is currently up 1.2%. China's Shanghai Composite fell 2.6%. Hong Kong's Hang Seng fell 5.0%.
Treasury yields are on the rise, as hopes for geopolitical progress overshadows any China-related growth concerns. The 2-yr yield is up seven basis points to 1.82%, and the 10-yr yield is up eight basis points to 2.08%. The U.S. Dollar Index is down 0.1% to 98.99.
All thoughts on the Fed and Powell Wednesday