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Market Rap 03/13/23 by CTG

SPY / QQQ / Vix

ES 5 days, hourly candles S&P futures with the gap up open over Fridays RTH highs; has given back a bit more than half that move currently

SPY 3 months, daily candles Friday saw a follow thru flush thru recent lows after the SVIB banking crisis, as bulls hope they can hold above the Dec. lows (support)

384.32 the low from Friday

381-382 next heavier chunk of volume profile

377.83-378.76

376.42

374.77 (resistance)

393.16 the high from Friday

393.16 also the 200 day MA(purple)

393.25 the 150 day MA(orange)

397.24 the falling daily 12ema(white)

NQ 5 days, hourly candles Nasdaq futures also gapped up and followed thru over Fridays RTH highs; have given about half of that move back here

QQQ 3 months, daily candles The Nasdaq has held up much better recently than the S&P; Tested and started to push under the recent lows on Friday, with a close under it's 200 day MA(purple) and the 50 day MA(blue) - which is about to see the "golden cross". (support)

287.38 the low from Friday

281.18

273.89

(resistance)

289.57 the 50 day MA(blue)

290.09 the 200 day MA(purple)

294.35 the high from Friday

295.13 the falling 12ema(white)

March Vix futures 3 months, daily candles Backed off hard initially on the broad market futures rally; Re-testing the upper reaches of Fridays range currently

Hourly March Vix futures look:


Spot Vix 3 months, daily candles Initially opened under 25 and well off Fridays highs, but currently pushing thru those highs as we test the 30 handle, so no all clear yet

XLF 5 days, hourly candles Under Fridays lows, currently testing pre mkt lows

https://www.briefing.com/stock-market-update [BRIEFING.COM] S&P futures vs fair value: -2.00. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: +70.00.The S&P 500 futures are down 1 point and are trading roughly in line with fair value. The Nasdaq 100 futures are up 71 points and are trading 0.6% above fair value. The Dow Jones Industrial Average futures are down 89 points and are trading 0.3% below fair value. The equity futures market is mixed this morning after the Fed, Treasury, and FDIC issued a joint statement to make depositors whole at Silicon Valley Bank and Signature Bank of New York. Separately, the Fed announced a bank term funding program designed to assure banks have the ability to meet the needs of all depositors. These developments sparked an initial relief rally, but conviction has been mixed and uncertainty elevated as many bank stocks continue to suffer further losses. Treasury yields are down sharply in a flight to safety trade. The 2-yr note yield is down 41 basis points to 4.18% and the 10-yr note yield is down 17 basis points to 3.53%. Also, there has been a stark downshift in rate expectations for the March FOMC meeting. The CME FedWatch Tool shows a 52.4% probability of a 25 basis points rate hike and a 47.6% probability of no rate hike versus a 78.6% probability seen last week for a 50 basis points rate hike. The U.S. Dollar Index is down 0.4% to 104.12. In corporate news:

  • First Republic Bank (FRC 29.39, -52.37, -64.1%): down sharply as investors worry about its deposit base

  • Seagen (SGEN 206.00, +33.39, +19.3%): to be acquired by Pfizer (PFE) for $43 billion or $229 per share in cash

  • Tesla (TSLA 171.36, -2.08, -1.2%): downgraded to Peer Perform from Outperform at Wolfe Research

  • JPMorgan (JPM 132.23, -1.42, -1.1%): upgraded to Overweight from Equal Weight at Wells Fargo

  • Boeing (BA 204.30, +1.32, +0.6%): Saudi Arabia's Public Investment Fund close to agreement to purchase large amount of Boeing (BA) jets, according to WSJ

  • Qualtrics (XM 17.65, +1.10, +6.7%): to be acquired by Silver Lake and CPP Investments for $18.15 per share

  • Provention Bio (PRVB 24.27, +17.57, +262.2%): to be acquired by Sanofi (SNY) for $25.00 per share

  • Meta Platforms (META 182.57, +3.06, +1.7%): company is planning additional layoffs, according to WSJ

  • Applied Materials (AMAT 115.98, +1.59, +1.4%): increases quarterly dividend to $0.32 from $0.26/share; also announces additional $10 bln share repurchase

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