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Market Rap 03/10/22 by CTG

SPY / QQQ / Vix

SPY 5 days, hourly candles S&P futures consolidating yesterdays big move, testing yesterdays RTH lows 422.52 the corresponding futures low

428.31 the after hours high before futures opened

SPY 3months, daily candles Daily bounce underway, watching for follow thru today. Tested up to the 12ema yesterday (white line). A sustainable push/hold above that level will show more bullish momentum than the oversold short term bounces we've been seeing. 429.51 the high from yesterday and first resistance

429.99 that daily 12ema

432.30-433.37 after that

433.80 small open gap

Anything under 441.11 on this current bounce is just the next daily "lower high" 422.82 the low from yesterday and first support, breaking those lows w follow thru would mean this bounce has already topped out

415.12 next support, bulls looking for a "higher low" above there whenever this bounce does top out, for a chance to eventually flip the daily trend back in their favor

410.64 the Ukraine invasion lows, bulls hoping for the double bottom look

QQQ 5 days, hourly candles Nasdaq futures also pulling back to test yesterdays RH lows, ahead of the CPI data at 8:30 et 329.75 the corresponding futures low so far

337.05 the after hours high, before futures opened

QQQ 3 months, daily candles Reversal doji confirmed yesterday, looking for the double bottom against Ukraine invasion lows; Follow thru today would provide bulls with more confidence, at minimum holding well above yesterdays lows and avoiding this bounce already topping out/a break of those lows 336.38 the high from yesterday and first resistance

337.81 the daily 12ema

341.31 next

350.04 the previous daily "lower high", anything under that level keeps the current downtrend on this timeframe in place 329.09 the low from yesterday and first support

319.94 after that, bulls looking to find a "higher low" above there whenever this bounce does top out

318.26 the Ukraine invasion low, go down to test that level again and it's less probable to hold on the next pass

March Vix 3 months, daily candles Saw the start of some back off the last 2 days, but today is already regaining half of yesterdays pullback so far. This refusing to back off still is a big caution flag.

Spot Vix 3 months, daily candles So far this is still holding above 30, which is also a big caution flag for any sustainable equity rally.

Wide intraday ranges and movement will be the norm, both directions, until this eases off. Testing yesterdays high currently (34.12); get over that and 31.39 (yesterdays low) becomes the next daily "higher low" in this uptrend.

We'd then look for a test of the recent highs - 37.52-38.94. Break yesterdays low of 31.39, and daily consolidation continues, looking for a "higher low" compared to 29.31

TLT 4hr candles - testing recent lows ahead of the CPI print, as interest rates have crept back up and looked thru the geopolitical drama Futures backpedal after ceasefire talks produce no real progress

10-Mar-22 07:56 ET

Market is Closed

[BRIEFING.COM] S&P futures vs fair value: -45.20. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: -185.50.

The S&P 500 futures trade 45 points, or 1.1%, below fair value after a third round of ceasefire talks between Russia and Ukraine ended with no real progress. Oil prices are rebounding modestly while Treasuries trade little changed in front of key consumer inflation data.

After the talks, Russia confirmed a ban on exports of certain technology, auto, and agricultural products, among other items, until the end of 2022, in retaliation for Western sanctions on Moscow, according to Reuters. On a related note, the UK expanded sanctions against Russian oligarchs on Thursday.

Staying in Europe, the ECB recently left its key interest rates unchanged, as expected. The central bank said it's on pace to conclude net purchases under the APP in the third quarter of this year, and it extended the Eurosystem repo facility for central banks (EUREP) until Jan. 2023 because of the Russia-Ukraine situation.

WTI crude futures, which dropped 12% yesterday, are back up 4.2%, or $4.55, to $113.21/bbl. The 2-yr yield is up one basis point to 1.68%, and the 10-yr yield is unchanged at 1.95%. The U.S. Dollar Index is up 0.2% to 98.18.

As for the data, Consumer Price Index for February will be released at 8:30 a.m. ET alongside the weekly Initial Claims ( consensus 220,000) and Continuing Claims report. The Treasury Budget for February will be available at 2:00 p.m. ET.

Separately, shares of 2923.00, +137.42, +4.9%) are up 5% in pre-market action after the company announced a 20-for-1 stock split and a $10 billion share repurchase authorization. Trading is expected to begin on a split-adjusted basis on June 6, 2022. CPI helmets on

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