Market Rap 03/08/22 by CTG
SPY / QQQ / Vix
SPY 5 days, hourly candles S&P futures broke yesterdays RTH lows early this AM, and currently is seeing another oversold RSI bounce to cool off that condition 413.90 the corresponding futures low
423.03 the corresponding futures high
SPY 3 months, daily candles Previous daily "higher low" from 3/1 decisively lost yesterday as bulls already lost control of the daily uptrend attempt 419.36 the low from yesterday and first support
413.90 the corresponding futures low from last night
410.64 the Ukraine invasion low all that's left after that before we zoom out and look for the next potential downside levels 432.30 the high from yesterday and first resistance on this timeframe
433.05 the daily 12ema
433.80 small open gap
QQQ 5 days, hourly candles Nasdaq futures also broke yesterdays RTH lows, and headed down towards the Ukraine invasion lows, before bouncing off hourly and 4hr oversold conditions 319.90 the corresponding futures low
327.30 the corresponding futures high
QQQ 3 months, daily candles Magneting down to test the Ukraine invasion lows 324.65 the low from yesterday and first support
319.90 the overnight futures low
318.26 the Ukraine invasion low 338.48 the high from yesterday and first resistance
QQQ 3yr, weekly candles Getting close to oversold on this timeframe for the first time since the Covid lows. 318.26 Ukraine invasion low first support
316 from May '21
307-308ish some volume profile support
297.45 from March '21
March Vix 3 months, daily candles More recent highs found overnight as this refuses to back off
Vix futures curve staying in backwardation, providing a tailwind for any long vol funds like VXX or UVXY for as long as this condition remains
Spot Vix 3 months, daily candles Heading up to test the Ukraine invasion highs of 37.79.
38.94 was the 1/24 high.
https://www.briefing.com/stock-market-update Equity futures stabilize while nickel futures soar
08-Mar-22 08:02 ET
Market is Closed
[BRIEFING.COM] S&P futures vs fair value: +9.40. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: -12.30.
The S&P 500 futures trade nine points, or 0.2%, above fair value as the futures market tries to stabilize from yesterday's sell-off. The positive bias has formed without there being a decisively negative headline on Russia's invasion of Ukraine.
Encouragingly, Russian forces have significantly slowed their advance ahead of a key diplomatic meeting on Thursday, according to Reuters, citing a Ukrainian presidential adviser. Commodity markets, to be fair, aren't behaving like things are getting better.
Nickel futures, for example, more than doubled to over $100,000 a metric ton in a short squeeze, forcing regulators to suspend trading at the London Metal Exchange (LME), according to CNBC. While that gain was pared some, the LME suspended trading for the rest of the day.
Oil prices remain elevated above $120 per barrel ($121.81, +2.41, +2.0%) amid news that the EU is planning to phase out purchases of Russian energy.
Treasury yields are selling off, driving yields higher amid the inflationary pressures. The 2-yr yield is up eight basis points to 1.62%, and the 10-yr yield is up 11 basis points to 1.86%. The U.S. Dollar Index is down 0.3% to 98.98.
On the data front, investors will receive the Trade Balance for January (Briefing.com consensus -$87.5 billion) at 8:30 a.m. ET and Wholesale Inventories for January (Briefing.com consensus 0.8%) at 10:00 a.m. ET. The NFIB Small Business Optimism Index for February decreased to 95.7 from 97.1 in January.