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Market Rap 03/03/22 by CTG

SPY / QQQ / Vix

SPY 5 days, hourly candles S&P futures cooling off yesterdays move in the upper third of the range 436.52 the corresponding futures low

438.95 the corresponding futures high

SPY 3 months, daily candles Daily "higher low" now set at the 3/1 low of 427.11. Pushed above the 12ema (white line) and recent candle resistance/previous "lower high" at 438.20; looking like a daily trend change back to bulls, but some follow thru needed for confidence that we're not setting a double top against recent futures highs (439.56 from 3/1 futures and 439.72 high from yesterday) 439.72 the high from yesterday and first resistance

445.30 the 200 day MA

448.06 after that 436.21 the 12 ema

431.57 low from yesterday first candle support

427.11 after that and the most important area for bulls to stay above to maintain confidence they're starting to change the charts back in their favor

QQQ 5 days, hourly candles Nasdaq futures with similar action, trading sideways in the upper third of yesterdays range 345.38 the corresponding futures low

347.55 the corresponding futures high

QQQ 3 months, daily candles Pushing up against the last daily "lower high", and spot bulls want to follow thru for the daily trend change; Push above and close above the daily 12ema (white line)348.54, 348.59 those resistances, and spot for bulls to break with some follow thru for trend change confidence

351-353ish volume profile resistance

357.09 after that 345.74 the daily 12ema (white line)

340.24 the low from yesterday and next candle support

338.90 the most recent daily "higher low" and spot for bulls to stay above

March Vix futures 3 months, daily candles Yesterday saw some vol crush of that 3/1 up move; Trading today in the lower third of that range. Broad market bulls would like to see 29.35 break to the downside here with follow thru, for more confidence that daily trend changes are shaping up

Spot Vix 3 months, daily candles Yesterday saw a reversal of most of that 3/1 up move; testing the lower end of yesterdays range now. Still above 30, so massive ranges and movement should still be expected, both directions. 30.43 the low from today

30.12 yesterdays low Follow thru under there would add confidence/fuel to these recent broad market bounces

TLT 3months, daily candles Hard sell off here starting after Powell's comments; straight into hourly OS conditions and a test of the last daily "higher low" at 136.18. Hourly OS bounce currently underway, cooling off that RSI. Futures and Treasuries muted as market awaits results of cease-fire talks

03-Mar-22 07:56 ET

Market is Closed

[BRIEFING.COM] S&P futures vs fair value: +0.10. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: -29.30.

The S&P 500 futures trade roughly in-line with fair value as the market awaits the results of cease-fire talks between Russia and Ukraine.

WTI crude futures briefly topped $116 per barrel overnight as Russian forces reportedly captured the southern city of Kherson, but prices have since retraced to $113.14 per barrel (+$2.48, +2.2%). Energy stocks are benefiting from the elevated oil prices in pre-market action.

Software stocks Snowflake (SNOW 210.35, -54.34, -20.5%), Veeva Systems (VEEV 206.85, -23.77, -10.3%), and Okta (OKTA 170.03, -12.67, -6.9%), on the other hand, are showing weakness after providing underwhelming-to-disappointing guidance. Their weakness could be restraining interest in other growth stocks.

Elsewhere, the Treasury market is behaving relatively quiet following three straight days of huge moves. The 2-yr yield is down two basis points to 1.50%, and the 10-yr yield is unchanged at 1.87%. The U.S. Dollar Index is up 0.2% to 97.57.

On the data front, investors will receive weekly Initial Claims ( consensus 226,000) and revised Q4 Productivity ( consensus 6.7%) and Unit Labor Costs ( consensus 0.3%) at 8:30 a.m. ET, followed by the ISM Non-Manufacturing Index for February ( consensus 61.0%) and Factory Orders for January ( consensus 0.5%) at 10:00 a.m. ET.

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