Market Rap 03/03/22 by CTG
SPY / QQQ / Vix
SPY 5 days, hourly candles S&P futures cooling off yesterdays move in the upper third of the range 436.52 the corresponding futures low
438.95 the corresponding futures high
SPY 3 months, daily candles Daily "higher low" now set at the 3/1 low of 427.11. Pushed above the 12ema (white line) and recent candle resistance/previous "lower high" at 438.20; looking like a daily trend change back to bulls, but some follow thru needed for confidence that we're not setting a double top against recent futures highs (439.56 from 3/1 futures and 439.72 high from yesterday) 439.72 the high from yesterday and first resistance
445.30 the 200 day MA
448.06 after that 436.21 the 12 ema
431.57 low from yesterday first candle support
427.11 after that and the most important area for bulls to stay above to maintain confidence they're starting to change the charts back in their favor
QQQ 5 days, hourly candles Nasdaq futures with similar action, trading sideways in the upper third of yesterdays range 345.38 the corresponding futures low
347.55 the corresponding futures high
QQQ 3 months, daily candles Pushing up against the last daily "lower high", and spot bulls want to follow thru for the daily trend change; Push above and close above the daily 12ema (white line)348.54, 348.59 those resistances, and spot for bulls to break with some follow thru for trend change confidence
351-353ish volume profile resistance
357.09 after that 345.74 the daily 12ema (white line)
340.24 the low from yesterday and next candle support
338.90 the most recent daily "higher low" and spot for bulls to stay above
March Vix futures 3 months, daily candles Yesterday saw some vol crush of that 3/1 up move; Trading today in the lower third of that range. Broad market bulls would like to see 29.35 break to the downside here with follow thru, for more confidence that daily trend changes are shaping up
Spot Vix 3 months, daily candles Yesterday saw a reversal of most of that 3/1 up move; testing the lower end of yesterdays range now. Still above 30, so massive ranges and movement should still be expected, both directions. 30.43 the low from today
30.12 yesterdays low Follow thru under there would add confidence/fuel to these recent broad market bounces
TLT 3months, daily candles Hard sell off here starting after Powell's comments; straight into hourly OS conditions and a test of the last daily "higher low" at 136.18. Hourly OS bounce currently underway, cooling off that RSI.
https://www.briefing.com/stock-market-update Futures and Treasuries muted as market awaits results of cease-fire talks
03-Mar-22 07:56 ET
Market is Closed
[BRIEFING.COM] S&P futures vs fair value: +0.10. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: -29.30.
The S&P 500 futures trade roughly in-line with fair value as the market awaits the results of cease-fire talks between Russia and Ukraine.
WTI crude futures briefly topped $116 per barrel overnight as Russian forces reportedly captured the southern city of Kherson, but prices have since retraced to $113.14 per barrel (+$2.48, +2.2%). Energy stocks are benefiting from the elevated oil prices in pre-market action.
Software stocks Snowflake (SNOW 210.35, -54.34, -20.5%), Veeva Systems (VEEV 206.85, -23.77, -10.3%), and Okta (OKTA 170.03, -12.67, -6.9%), on the other hand, are showing weakness after providing underwhelming-to-disappointing guidance. Their weakness could be restraining interest in other growth stocks.
Elsewhere, the Treasury market is behaving relatively quiet following three straight days of huge moves. The 2-yr yield is down two basis points to 1.50%, and the 10-yr yield is unchanged at 1.87%. The U.S. Dollar Index is up 0.2% to 97.57.
On the data front, investors will receive weekly Initial Claims (Briefing.com consensus 226,000) and revised Q4 Productivity (Briefing.com consensus 6.7%) and Unit Labor Costs (Briefing.com consensus 0.3%) at 8:30 a.m. ET, followed by the ISM Non-Manufacturing Index for February (Briefing.com consensus 61.0%) and Factory Orders for January (Briefing.com consensus 0.5%) at 10:00 a.m. ET.