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Market Rap 03/02/23 by CTG

SPY / QQQ / Vix

SPY 5 days, hourly candles S&P futures broke yesterdays lows and saw follow thru, then saw a bounce that took it back to just under the lows from yesterday currently 391.85 the corresponding futures low

395.56 the corresponding futures high

SPY 3 months, daily candles Testing the 200 day MA(purple) and the bottom of this big volume profile area. Bears have been playing defense at any rally attempts this week. Daily downtrend/weekly uptrend in play. (support)

393.38 the low from yesterday, trading under there currently for the small gap down open setting up

393.14 the 200 day MA, also a hair under there currently



384ish starts the top of the next volume profile area (resistance)

396.69 the high from yesterday

396.81 the 50 day MA(blue)


400.90 the daily 12ema(white)

QQQ 5 days, hourly candles Nasdaq futures broke yesterdays lows as well 288.21 the corresponding futures low

291.85 the after hours high from yesterday before futures opened

QQQ 3 months, daily candles

Tested last Thursdays low/the 200 day MA(purple) yesterday; Trading just under those levels currently and testing the 150 day MA(orange). Daily downtrend/weekly uptrend in play.(support)

290.20 the low from yesterday - trading under there currently for the gap down open set up

289.14 the 150 day MA

288.36 small open gap

285.89 the 50 day MA(blue)

281.18 (resistance)

290.09 the 200 day MA

293.93 the high from yesterday

296.16 the daily 12ema(white)

March Vix futures 3 months, daily candles Attempting to see some follow thru today over the last couple days of highs

Spot Vix 3 months, daily candles Turned back around the last couple days of highs so far today, after testing and holding above that 20 psyche level Tues/Wed

TLT daily and weekly charts Teetering on that important weekly support level from December, again

$DXY 3months, daily candles Getting back most of yesterdays declines so far today as it challenges the highest levels we've seen so far this year [BRIEFING.COM] S&P futures vs fair value: -17.00. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: -75.00. The S&P 500 futures are down 17 points and are trading 0.4% below fair value. The Nasdaq 100 futures are down 78 points and are trading 0.6% below fair value. The Dow Jones Industrial Average futures are up 70 points and are trading 0.2% above fair value. The equity futures market is somewhat lopsided this morning. The Dow Jones Industrial Average futures trade higher due to the big earnings-driven gain in Salesforce (CRM), which is up 15.0%, while the Nasdaq 100 and S&P 500 futures lose ground, reflecting ongoing concerns about rising market rates. The 10-yr Treasury note yield remains above 4.00% this morning, up four basis points to 4.04%, which has kept buyers on the sidelines. The U.S. Dollar Index is building up strength, up 0.4% to 104.95. Also, the eurozone's Core CPI accelerated again in the February reading and European Central Bank President Lagarde spoke in favor of a 50 bps March rate hike again, adding that subsequent increases will depend on incoming data. Market participants will receive the following economic data today:

  • 8:30 ET: Revised Q4 Productivity ( consensus 2.5%; prior 3.0%) and Unit Labor Costs ( consensus 1.4%; prior 1.1%), weekly Initial Claims ( consensus 197,000; prior 192,000) and Continuing Claims (prior 1.654 mln)

  • 10:30 ET: Weekly natural gas inventories (prior -71 bcf) In corporate news:

  • Tesla (TSLA 189.62, -13.15, -6.5%): down in pre-market following investor day; the company did not announce any new vehicle specific details; plans to reduce production costs by as much as 50%; Cybertruck coming later this year; company will offer Texas residents unlimited overnight charging for $30/month starting in July

  • Salesforce (CRM 192.59, +25.24, +15.1%): beats by $0.32, beats on revs; guides Q1 EPS and revs above consensus; guides FY24 EPS and revs above consensus; share repurchase program increased to $20 bln

  • Okta (OKTA 82.72, +11.28, +15.8%): beats by $0.21, beats on revs; guides Q1 EPS above consensus, revs above consensus; guides FY24 EPS above consensus, revs in-line

  • Snowflake (SNOW 143.20, -11.30, -7.3%): beats by $0.09, beats on revs, product revenue increased 54% yr/yr; provides guidance for Q1 and FY24; authorizes $2.0 bln stock buyback program

  • Splunk (SPLK 98.40, -4.08, -4.0%): beats by $0.89, beats on revs; guides Q1 revs below consensus; guides FY24 revs below consensus

  • Box (BOX 29.60, -3.98, -11.9%): beats by $0.03, reports revs in-line; guides Q1 EPS below consensus, revs below consensus; guides FY24 EPS in-line, revs below consensus

  • Pure Storage (PSTG 25.60, -3.19, -11.1%): beats by $0.14, reports revs in-line; announces $250 mln buyback

  • American Eagle (AEO 14.70, +0.57, +4.0%): beats by $0.07, beats on revs; guides FY24 revs in-line; reinstates dividend

  • Macy's (M 22.30, +1.87, +9.2%): beats by $0.29, reports revs in-line; guides FY24 EPS in-line, revs below consensus

  • Hormel Foods (HRL 42.11, -1.72, -3.9%): misses by $0.05, misses on revs; lowers FY23 EPS below consensus, revs in-line

  • Best Buy (BBY 80.27, -2.27, -2.8%): beats by $0.47, reports revs in-line, comps -9.3%; guides FY24 EPS and revs below consensus

  • Silvergate Capital (SI 8.12, -5.41, -40.0%): in 10K filing says it is currently evaluating the impact of events on its ability to continue as a going concern

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