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Market Rap 03/01/22 by CTG

SPY / QQQ / Vix

SPY 5 days, hourly candles S&P futures pulling back and testing the lower end of yesterdays RTH range, after briefly pushing thru to higher highs early this AM 432.07 the corresponding futures low

439.56 the corresponding futures high

SPY 3 months, daily candles Brief push over Friday's high with a close inside Friday's range (and brief push over 12 ema-white line, but a close back under). Watching for this bounce to top out anywhere prior to the 200 day MA/last daily "lower high" from 2/16. Daily and weekly downtrend in play, but bulls are making room for the "higher low" attempt whenever daily consolidation begins. 436.98 the 12ema

438.20 the high from yesterday

445.12 the 200 day MA

448.06 that last daily "lower high" from 2/16 430.70 the low from yesterday and first support

427.86 next

410.64 the Ukraine invasion fear lows, bulls looking for a daily "higher low" anywhere above that level whenever daily consolidation of this move begins

QQQ 5 days, hourly candles Nasdaq futures also saw a brief push thru yesterdays highs, followed by a pullback to the middle of yesterday range 349.28 the corresponding futures high

343.18 the corresponding futures low

QQQ 3 months, daily candles Daily bounce continues here, with a push, and close over the 12ema. Looking for a daily "lower high" here as well in the context of an ongoing daily and weekly downtrend. Bulls creating the room for a daily "higher low" whenever this move sees daily consolidation begin 346.20 the daily 12ema (white line)

348.54 the high from yesterday resistance

353.46 next

357.09 the 2/16 and the last daily "lower high" 341.32 the low from yesterday and first support

337.39 next

318.26 the Ukraine invasion fear low, bulls looking to set a daily "higher low" anywhere above there once daily consolidation begins, in the hopes of eventually flipping the trend back in their favor

TLT pushing back over recent highs - TLT goes up rates go down, a tailwind for tech/growth stocks

TLT 3 months, daily candles Daily trend change back to bulls yesterday after coming off oversold RSI conditions (4hr and hourly RSI now heated overbought in the short term, so some consolidation of this move could begin at any time)

IWM daily candles, 3months Bounce continuation and more confidence in the "double bottom" look the higher this bounce gets before topping out

March Vix 3 months, daily candles Volatility still extremely elevated, trading in wide ranges.

Inside bar day in yesterdays range so far, watching for which way this breaks. 31.10 to the upside

28.04 to the downside

Spot Vix 3 months, daily candles Over 30 here still, massive intraday movement and wide ranges should be expected until this backs off.

Inside bar day here so far today. 33.51 the high from yesterday to the upside

28.43 the low from yesterday to the downside Russia-Ukraine situation continues to weigh on market

01-Mar-22 07:57 ET

Market is Closed

[BRIEFING.COM] S&P futures vs fair value: -29.40. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: -116.00.

The S&P 500 futures trade 30 points, or 0.7%, below fair value as the Russia-Ukraine situation continues to weigh on sentiment.

The latest developments have seen no progress in cease-fire talks between Russia and Ukraine with Russian forces even attacking a civilian area in Kharkiv. Both sides will continue negotiations, but the market is thinking the situation could get worse before it gets better.

Treasury yields have taken another steep drop, WTI crude futures are trading back above $100 per barrel ($101.17, +5.45, +5.7%), gold futures are up 1.2% to $1924.00/ozt, and the CBOE Volatility Index is up 7.1% to 32.29.

The 2-yr yield is down 13 basis points to 1.30% (-27 bps this week), and the 10-yr yield is down 11 basis points to 1.73% (-26 bps this week). The U.S. Dollar Index is up 0.4% to 97.04.

Separately, shares of Target (TGT 220.00, +22.23, +11.1%) and Workday (WDAY 244.50, +15.45, +6.8%) have risen nicely in response to their earnings reports. Zoom Video (ZM 129.00, -3.60, -2.7%), however, trades lower after providing downside guidance for the rest of the year.

On the data front, investors will receive the final IHS Markit Manufacturing PMI for February at 9:45 a.m. ET, followed by the ISM Manufacturing Index for February ( consensus 58.0%) and Construction Spending report for January ( consensus -0.4%) at 10:00 a.m. ET.

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