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Market Rap 02/28/22 by CTG

SPY / QQQ / Vix

SPY 5 days, hourly candles (and the ES chart showing the missing 2 hrs of action the TD SPY chart leaves off). S&P futures gapped under Friday's RTH lows, but late yesterday evening reversed, and started to reclaim that level; Currently they've got back more than half of the declines. 425ish the corresponding futures low

434 the corresponding futures high so far

SPY 3 months, daily candles Friday saw follow thru off the Thursday reversal/bullish piercing candle, and actually pushed back above the 12ema (white line), closed above. Watching for daily and weekly "lower highs" whenever this bounce move tops out, in the context of being in daily and weekly downtrends. This big bounce has created room for bulls to attempt "higher lows" anywhere above recent lows though, whenever this move tops out. 437.84 the high from Friday and first resistance

438.66 right after that

444.99 the 200 day MA

448.06 the last daily "lower high", and anything under there on this current bounce keeps the daily downtrend intact 427.86 the low from Friday and first support on this timeframe, lose that area and the new daily "lower high" gets set

410.64 the Thursday low after that, bulls will be looking for a pivot anywhere above there, for an attempt to then go make higher highs (over whatever high this current bounce tops at) and change the daily trend back in their favor

QQQ 5 days, hourly candles Nasdaq futures also opened to a gap down under Fridays lows, before reversing and getting more than half of those declines back 334ish the corresponding futures low

343.16 the corresponding futures high so far

(Nasdaq futures chart (NQ) hourly)

QQQ 3 months, daily candles Thursdays strong reversal and bullish piercing candle saw follow thru Friday, stopping just under the 12ema (white line). Looking for the next daily/weekly lower high whenever this bounce tops out, in the context of downtrends on both those timeframes. 345.98 the high from Friday and first resistance

346.09 that daily 12ema

346.81 right after that

350-351ish some chunkier volume profile resistance comes into play

357.09 the last daily "lower high" and anything under there on this current bounce keeps the downtrend intact 337.39 Friday's low and first support, lose that level and the new daily "lower high" gets set (at Friday's high)

318.26 the Thursday low - bulls will be looking to pivot anywhere above there once we do see daily consolidation of this bounce, so they can have a chance at changing the daily trend

TLT 15 days, 4hr candles The bounce here after the broad market futures opening weakness saw this reclaim about half of Thursdays big move, before topping out currently

Gold and Silver still well below Thursdays highs

Oil also saw a big bounce last night after futures opened, but fell short of Thursdays highs as well Futures down on escalating Russia-Ukraine situation

28-Feb-22 08:00 ET

Market is Closed

[BRIEFING.COM] S&P futures vs fair value: -38.70. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: -135.80.The S&P 500 futures are down 39 points and trade 0.9% below fair value following some negative-sounding developments on the Russia-Ukraine situation. The benchmark index enters the session up 6.6% from last Thursday's low.

Briefly, President Putin put Russia's nuclear forces on high alert in response to further involvement/sanctions from the West. Several countries, including the U.S., announced they will block selected Russian banks from using the SWIFT messaging system, although banks involved in energy will not be removed.

Russia closed its stock market today, and its central bank increased rates to 20% from 9.5% to help protect its beleaguered ruble currency. Ukraine President Zelensky has expressed skepticism regarding the outcome of planned talks with Russia today.

Crude futures are back above $95 per barrel ($95.77, +4.14, +4.5%), and the threat of nuclear action has contributed to safety trades in Treasuries, gold ($1909.10, +21.50, +1.1%), and the dollar (96.95, +0.34, +0.4%).

The 10-yr yield is down seven basis points to 1.92%, and the 2-yr yield is down nine basis points to 1.50%.

On the data front, investors will receive Advance International Trade in Goods, Retail Inventories, and Wholesale Inventories for January at 8:30 a.m. ET, followed by the Chicago PMI for February ( consensus 62.0) at 9:45 a.m. ET.

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