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Market Rap 02/25/22 by CTG

SPY / QQQ / Vix

SPY 5 days, hourly candles S&P futures consolidating yesterdays massive reversal in the upper 1/3rd of the range 422.82 the corresponding futures low

428.42 the after hours high before futures opened

SPY 1 yr, daily candles Massive green reversal candle (on the 2nd highest volume in the past year; Jan 24th being the first) off the bottom of that large volume profile chunk dating back to May '21 428.76 the high from yesterday and first resistance

433.26 next

435.50 after that

436.91 the 12ema (white line) 410.64 the low from yesterday and first support on this timeframe

QQQ 5 days, hourly candles Nasdaq futures also consolidating sideways in the upper 1/3rd of yesterdays massive range 335.84 the corresponding futures low

340.79 the after hours high before futures opened

QQQ 1 year, daily candles Massive bullish piercing candle yesterday on the 4th highest volume in the past year (Jan 24th being the first) off early May '21 support levels 341.04 the high from yesterday and first resistance

342.18-344.04 after that

346.15 the 12 ema (white line) which has been mostly containing any bounces since the market started to sell off in early January 318.26 the low from yesterday and first support on this timeframe

IWM 5 days, hourly candles Russell similar futures action, consolidating in the upper 1/3rd of yesterdays massive range. Testing the highs from yesterday currently, with bull flag potential on the hourly/4hr timeframes for this, and the other indices

195.44 the corresponding futures low

198.95 and pushing thru yesterdays highs now as I type this


March Vix futures 3months, daily candles A brief push upward earlier this AM seeing upper wicks of selling, back to testing the lows from yesterday currently 26.25-26.68 the next level of "support" if the lows from yesterday break 30.44 the high from today and first "resistance"

Spot Vix 3months, daily candles Tested the highs from Jan 24th (38.94) yesterday but failed just short of there (37.79 the days high)

Inside bar so far today, looking to test yesterdays lows first thing.

Peeking back under 30, but massive moves and intraday ranges should be expected anywhere 20-25+. Futures stabilize on negotiation hopes

25-Feb-22 07:58 ET

Market is Closed

[BRIEFING.COM] S&P futures vs fair value: -16.00. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: -52.80.

The S&P 500 futures trade 16 points, or 0.4%, below fair value after yesterday's 180-point turnaround in the S&P 500. Russian forces have continued their invasion into Ukraine's capital, but there is no indication of a flight to safety in capital markets.

Treasury yields are trading higher with the 10-yr yield up two basis points to 1.99% and the 2-yr yield up six basis points to 1.60%. Gold futures are down 1.0% to $1906.50/ozt. The U.S. Dollar Index is down 0.2% to 96.97. Crude futures, meanwhile, are up 0.8% to $93.55/bbl.

In addition, growth stocks like Etsy (ETSY 150.00, +21.84, +17.0%), Block (SQ 111.38, +16.39, +17.3%), and Farfetch (FTCH 19.51, +4.50, +30.0%) are seeing huge gains in pre-market action following their earnings reports. They each beat EPS estimates, but ETSY issued downside Q1 revenue guidance.

There might be some hope that the Russia-Ukraine situation can avoid further casualties and get resolved through diplomatic means. Ukraine President Zelensky said he's open to negotiating with Russia, and China, according to CNBC, supports President Putin resolving the issue through negotiations.

Note, CNBC just reported that Russia said it's willing to send delegation to Minsk for talks. Futures have improved on the news.

On the data front, investors will receive Personal Income ( consensus -0.3%) and Personal Spending ( consensus 1.5%) for January, PCE Prices for January ( consensus 0.5%), and Durable Goods Orders for January ( consensus 0.6%) at 8:30 a.m. ET.

Afterwards, the final University of Michigan Index of Consumer Sentiment for February ( consensus 61.6) will be released at 10:00 a.m. ET.

"In response to the Russian invasion of Ukraine, a raft of sanctions were announced yesterday by the U.S., EU and other western powers. President Biden cut off Sberbank, Russia's biggest lender, from the U.S. financial system, along with four other banks that represent an estimated $1T in assets. He also announced export restrictions on semiconductors and aircraft parts, a swath of measures on Russia's elites (like freezing their American assets), as well as hampering Russia's ability to do business in foreign currencies and clear dollar trades on Wall Street. Missing from the list? Sanctions on Russian energy exports or aluminum supplies, and what would be the most severe action to date: banning Russia from international payments system SWIFT. The Belgian financial messaging platform links more than 11,000 financial institutions, keeping track and facilitating trillions of dollars worth of cross-border transactions each day (Russia accounted for 1.5% of the transactions on the system in 2020).Payments are possible without the system, but the workarounds are difficult and could have knock-on effects across the global economy. For example, while the U.K. is all in for a ban, Germany is highly concerned about reciprocal damage due to its hefty natural gas imports from Russia via SWIFT. Other nations in the EU are also concerned, and the effort would need to be coordinated to be applied effectively. "It is always an option," Biden noted in his remarks. "But right now, that's not the position that the rest of Europe wishes to take." "Disagreements on whether to oust a country from SWIFT have happened before. The most recent case occurred in 2018, when the Trump administration sought to cut off the access of Iran (Europe eventually went along with the ban due to fears of being in violation of sanctions against the country). In terms of a SWIFT ban on Russia, its effectiveness is debated among economists. Some say it's an overhyped tool that could backfire or result in stronger ties with China, while others say it has the potential to shrink Russia's GDP by as much as 5%" "Fedspeak: A slate of central bank officials stuck to the idea of a rate hike for March despite the uncertainty over Russia's invasion of Ukraine. Federal Reserve Governor Christopher Waller even suggested a half-point move if inflation data keeps coming in hot, as well as shrinking the Fed's balance sheet no later than July. Many traders also see the start of a hiking cycle in March, but are still debating how aggressive the Fed will be over the rest of the year."

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