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Market Rap 02/22/23 by CTG

SPY / QQQ / Vix

SPY 5 days, hourly candles and 15 days, 4hr candles S&P futures broke the lows from yesterday earlier this AM; currently seeing an hourly/4hr oversold bounce that's cooling off the RSI some 398.22 the pre mkt low

400.66 the pre mkt high


SPY 3 months, daily candles and weekly candles Weekly consolidation underway, looking for a weekly "higher low" anywhere above 374.77, in the context of a weekly uptrend. Weekly 12ema(white) being tested here. Daily downtrend continued with a full bear trending day yesterday, heading to test the 50 day MA(blue), and the breakout area from the end of January. (support)

398.82 the low from yesterday

396.72 the 50 day MA

393.56

393.26 the 200 day MA(purple) (resistance)

404.16 the high from yesterday

407.51

407.70 the daily 12ema(white)

408.14 small open gap


QQQ 5 days, hourly candles and 15 days, 4hr candles Nasdaq futures also broke the lows from yesterday earlier this AM with little follow thru; also seeing an hourly/4hr oversold bounce currently that's cooling off the RSI


QQQ 3months, daily candles and weekly candles Weekly consolidation underway here also, looking for a weekly "higher low" anywhere above the 12/26 lows. Weekly uptrend/daily downtrend in play. Heading to test it's 200 day MA(purple). (support)

293.89 the low from yesterday

292.30

290.30 the 200 day MA

289.89

289.43 the 150 day MA(orange)

288.52

288.36 small open gap (resistance)

298.73 the high from yesterday

301.12 the daily 12ema(white)


March Vix futures 3 months, daily candles Big follow thru above the 2/10 highs here yesterday; backing off some today after seeing some marginal higher highs over yesterday, but still trading in the upper third of that range

Spot Vix 3 months, daily candles Testing the 1/3 highs here

TLT weekly candles Testing the previous weekly "higher low" from late December

https://www.briefing.com/stock-market-update [BRIEFING.COM] S&P futures vs fair value: +10.00. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: +49.00.The S&P 500 futures are up 9 points and are trading 0.2% above fair value. The Nasdaq 100 futures are up 42 points and are trading 0.4% above fair value. The Dow Jones Industrial Average futures are up 64 points and are trading 0.2% above fair value. Equity futures indicate a modestly positive open, trying to bounce back from yesterday's retreat. A dip in Treasury yields is helping to limit any follow through selling interest. The 2-yr note yield is down six basis points to 4.67% and the 10-yr note yield is down two basis points to 3.93%. There is likely also an element of hesitation behind this morning's trade as investors await the FOMC Minutes from the January 31-February 01 meeting at 2:00 p.m. ET. Participants will be interested to see what kind of discussion took place about how high rates will ultimately go and how long they might stay there. On a related note, St. Louis Fed President Bullard (non FOMC voter) told CNBC earlier that his target rate for now is 5.375%, that the U.S. economy is stronger than the Fed thought, and that the market may be overpricing the risk of a recession in the second half of 2023. Market participants will receive the following economic data today:

  • 7:00 ET: Weekly MBA Mortgage Index (prior -7.7%)

  • 10:30 ET: Weekly crude oil inventories (prior 16.28 mln) In corporate news:

  • Coinbase Global (COIN 63.47, +1.40, +2.3%): misses by $1.05, beats on revs; guides for sequential increase in subscription and services revenue of 10.4% at midpoint

  • Palo Alto Networks (PANW 183.00, +16.11, 9.7%): beats by $0.27, reports revs in-line; guides Q3 EPS above consensus, revs below consensus; guides FY23 EPS above consensus, revs in-line

  • Keysight (KEYS 168.51, -14.47, -7.9%): beats by $0.17, reports revs in-line; guides Q2 EPS in-line, revs below consensus

  • Stellantis (STLA 17.10, +0.44, +2.6%): reports FY22 results; beats on revs; approves share buyback program

  • Chesapeake Energy (CHK 79.19, +1.15, +1.5%): beats by $1.32, beats on revs, net cash provided by operating activities of $1.05 bln; expects FY23 CapEx of $1.765-1.835 bln; has executed an agreement to sell a portion of its remaining Eagle Ford asset to INEOS Energy for $1.4 bln

  • Toll Brothers (TOL 56.95, +1.18, +2.1%): beats by $0.31, beats on revs; reaffirms FY23 EPS guidance

  • Baidu (BIDU 150.01, +9.19, +6.5%): beats by CNY2.78, beats on revs; authorizes $5 billion share repurchase program

  • ZipRecruiter (ZIP 19.61, -3.64, -15.7%): beats on EPS and revs; guides Q1 and FY23 revs below consensus; downgraded to Outperform from Strong Buy at Raymond James

  • CoStar Group (CSGP 65.97, -10.05, -13.2%): beats by $0.03, reports revs in-line; guides Q1 EPS below consensus, revs below consensus; guides FY23 EPS below consensus, revs below consensus; News Corp. (NWSA) no longer engaged in discussions with CoStar Group regarding a potential sale of Move, Inc.

  • TJX (TJX 79.35, +0.53, +0.7%): reports EPS in-line, beats on revs; guides Q1 EPS below consensus; guides FY24 EPS below consensus; raises dividend 13% and approves new $2.0 bln stock buyback plan

  • Intel (INTC 25.92, -0.14, -0.5%): reaffirms 1Q23 EPS and revenue guidance and lowers quarterly dividend to $0.125/share, equating to new annualized yield of about 1.9%


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