Market Rap 02/22/22 by CTG
SPY / QQQ / Vix
S&P futures took a wild ride over the weekend, only to end up right around levels that everything closed Friday, after seeing an hourly and 4hr oversold RSI bounce the last few hours (S&P futures hourly chart showing the full action, along with the SPY hourly chart below)
SPY 3 months, daily candles S&P futures tested into the area just above the January lows, before bouncing some the last few hours, as bulls look to see if they can set a weekly "higher low" above the January 24th lows 431.82 the low from Friday and first support
420.76 the Jan. 24th low 438.66 the high from Friday and first resistance on this timeframe
444.70 the 200 day MA
SPY weekly look, looking for that "higher low" above the Jan. 24th lows
Nasdaq futures broke the Jan 24th lows, before bouncing off hourly/4hr oversold RSI conditions, now currently trading around where we closed on Friday
QQQ 3 months, daily candles The Nasdaq broke the Jan 24th lows in futures action over the weekend; currently trading back above there and Friday's low, so we'll see what plays out today in regular trading action 339.14 the low from Friday and first support
334.15 the Jan. 24th low next 346.81 the high from Friday and first resistance on this timeframe
QQQ weekly candles 334.15 as the first weekly support
If that gets breached again in regular trading hours, the next weekly support comes in around
316 is the next major support after that from May '21
March Vix futures 3 months, daily candles Tested into the January highs here in futures action before backing off. Also currently trading right around the levels we closed Friday at.
Spot Vix 3 months, daily candles Spot Vix only tested the 2/14 highs early this AM, then gave the entire move back on this short term broad market oversold bounce. Still well off levels seen on January 24th.
TLT 15 days, 4hr candles Big bounce the last couple days, as interest rates back off on geopolitical fears; culminating in a test/push over the highs seen 2/14 before backing off. Now giving back much of the move from Friday as well.
https://www.briefing.com/stock-market-update Futures trade little changed, recoup geopolitical-driven losses
22-Feb-22 07:59 ET
Market is Closed
[BRIEFING.COM] S&P futures vs fair value: +3.00. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: -50.30.
The S&P 500 futures trade just three points, or 0.1%, above fair value, although they were trading as low as 2.2% below fair value after Russia declared two territories in eastern Ukraine as independent and ordered deployment of troops into those regions.
President Biden, in response, signed an executive order prohibiting new U.S. investment in the so-called DNR or LNR regions of Ukraine. Mr. Biden also accepted a meeting “in principle” with Russian President Putin late this week if an invasion does not occur.
Based on the resilient price action, there might be hope that diplomacy can still win out or that the market has priced in everything but a Russian invasion. Despite the Russia news, the 10-yr yield is up one basis point to 1.94%, gold futures are down 0.1% to 1898.50/ozt, and the U.S. Dollar Index is down 0.1% to 95.94. WTI crude futures, though, are up 3.1% to $93.06/bbl.
The 2-yr yield is up five basis points to 1.51% as the market continues to expect tighter monetary policy. Fed Governor Bowman (FOMC voter) said she supports a March rate hike in addition to further rate increases in the coming months if the economy evolves as expected.
In other developments, Home Depot (HD 347.00, +0.13, unch) beat top and bottom-line estimates, the UK announced the remaining domestic restrictions in England will be removed, and Houghton Mifflin Harcourt (HMHC 20.82, +2.71, +15.0%) agreed be acquired by Veritas Capital for $2.8 billion, or $21.00/share, in cash.
On the data front, investors will receive the FHFA Housing Price Index for December and the S&P Case-Shiller Home Price Index for December (Briefing.com consensus 18.3%) at 9:00 a.m. ET, the preliminary IHS Markit Manufacturing/Services PMIs for February at 9:45 a.m. ET, and the Conference Board's Consumer Confidence Index for February (Briefing.com consensus 109.0) at 10:00 a.m. ET.