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Market Rap 02/17/23 by CTG

SPY / QQQ / Vix SPY 5 days, hourly candles S&P futures saw a big flush under yesterdays lows back into hourly oversold territory; seeing some bounce now to cool off that condition, as we head towards the gap down open. 4hr RSI has room for more selling if da Bears want to press into the 3 day wknd. 404.94 the corresponding futures low

409 the after hours high from yesterday before futures opened

SPY 3 months, daily candles Bearish reversal candle yesterday with the next daily "lower high" now set at 415.05, Tuesdays high. Lost the 12ema(white) with a gap down open ahead. (support)

408.14 the low from yesterday - trading under there currently for the gap down set up

405.01

402.35

400.03-400.28

396.33 the 50 day MA(blue) (resistance)

409.64 that daily 12ema, now back overhead

412.91 the high from yesterday

415.05 set as the next daily "lower high" in the context of the daily downtrend

QQQ 5 days, hourly candles Nasdaq futures also saw a big flush under yesterdays lows, back into hourly oversold conditions; Attempting some bounce now to cool off that RSI; 4hr RSI has room for more selling if the bears want to press things today. 299.88 the corresponding futures low

304ish the after hours high from yesterday, before futures opened

QQQ 3 months, daily candles Bearish reversal candle here yesterday as well, as the next daily "lower high" gets set at 309.27, Wednesdays high. Close above the daily 12ema(white) but gapping under it currently. (support)

303.15 the low from yesterday - trading under there currently for the gap down open ahead

299.93-300.91

297.25

294ish the top of the volume profile area where we broke out from at the start of Feb.

292.30

290.57 the 200 day MA(purple) (resistance)

308.43 the high from yesterday

309.27 the last daily "lower high" and spot da bulls will need to push back over to break the downtrend on this timeframe

March Vix futures 3 months, daily candles Bullish engulfing candle here yesterday, follow thru today back over it's 12ema(white)

22.60 the high from last week.

Spot Vix 3 months, daily candles. Lost the daily "higher low" pattern on Wednesday, for the fake out - as it saw no follow thru down yesterday, and reversed back above the 20 psyche level by close. Gap up back over it's 50 day MA(blue) today.Normal Friday pattern has been to crush hard thru the day then gap back up some Monday(Tuesday in this case, markets closed Mon) morning. Lets see if it can actually stand tall today and flip that script for another feather in da Bears cap

TLT 15 days, 4hr candles and Weekly candles 4hr RSI now in oversold territory as important weekly support at 99.35 comes into view. Looking for a weekly "higher low" above there and for bulls to play defense somewhere between here/that level.


$DXY 3 months, daily candles The dollar seeing more follow thru over it's 50 day MA(blue). 105.63 the next major resistance level.

https://www.briefing.com/stock-market-update [BRIEFING.COM] S&P futures vs fair value: -23.30. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: -97.00.The S&P 500 futures are down 24 points and are trading 0.6% below fair value. The Nasdaq 100 futures are down 98 points and are trading 0.8% below fair value. The Dow Jones Industrial Average futures are down points and are trading 0.4% below fair value. The stock market is poised for a lower open, following through with yesterday's sell off. Worries about the Fed raising rates more than expected are still driving price action, along with normal consolidation efforts following a big run in a short amount of time. The 10-yr Treasury note yield hit 3.92% overnight, but it pulled back to 3.88%. The 2-yr note yield is up seven basis points to 4.70%. The U.S. Dollar Index is up 0.7% to 104.58. WTI crude oil futures are down 3.0% to $76.13/bbl and natural gas futures are down 2.3% to $2.33/mmbtu. In corporate news:

  • Applied Materials (AMAT 117.07, +1.68, +1.5%): beats by $0.11, beats on revs; guides AprQ EPS in-line, revs in-line; says a major supplier encountered a disruption that will impact Q2 shipments

  • Deere (DE 411.75, +8.80, +2.2%): beats by $1.08, beats on revs; raises FY23 net income guidance

  • Dropbox (DBX 24.47, +0.51, +2.1%): beats by $0.01, reports revs in-line; guides on call; forecasts Q1 and FY23 revs ahead of consensus

  • DoorDash (DASH 70.69, +3.80, +5.7%): reports adjusted EBITDA at high end of prior guidance; beats on revs, Marketplace GOV increased 29%, beating prior guidance; Guides for FY23 adj. EBITDA of $500-$800 mln; authorized share repurchase program of up to $750 mln of common stock; 2023 investments going towards building out categories beyond restaurants in the U.S. and globally

  • Texas Roadhouse (TXRH 99.70, -5.45, -5.2%): misses by $0.14, misses on revs

  • Cognex (CGNX 50.91, -4.40, -8.0%): beats by $0.01, misses on revs; guides Q1 revs below consensus; few large customers paused investments, noticed slower trends carry into 2023

  • DraftKings (DKNG19.44, +1.63, +9.2% ): beats by $0.05, beats on revs; raises FY23 guidance; upgraded to Buy from Neutral at BTIG Research

  • Moderna (MRNA 162.98, -9.33, -5.4%): announces interim phase 3 safety and immunogenicity results for MRNA-1010, a seasonal influenza vaccine candidate; Non-inferiority was not met for seroconversion rates and geometric mean titer ratios for the influenza B/Victoria- and B/Yamagata-lineage strains

  • AutoNation (AN 147.81, +6.55, +4.6%): beats by $0.53, beats on revs

  • Roku (ROKU 72.57, +2.00, +2.8%): upgrade to Buy from Underperform at BofA Securities

  • HubSpot (HUBS 404.09, +42.126, +11.7%): beats by $0.29, beats on revs; guides Q1 EPS above consensus, revs above consensus; guides FY23 EPS above consensus, revs in-line


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