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Market Rap 02/16/23 by CTG

SPY / QQQ / Vix

SPY 5 days, hourly candles S&P futures broke over yesterdays highs earlier in the evening, but backed down at Tuesdays RTH highs; currently pulling back into yesterdays range 415.08 that corresponding futures high

413 the pre mkt low so far

SPY 3 months, daily candles Inside bar day yesterday with yet another test/push off the 12ema(white); watching for which way that breaks today/tomorrow to then either look at seeing the bulls test recent highs, OR setting the next daily "lower high" for bears. (resistance)

414.06 the high from yesterday

415.05 Tuesdays RTH high

416.49-418.31 the recent highs (support)

409.88 the 12ema(white)

409.47 the low from yesterday

408.24

405.01

QQQ 5 days, hourly candles Nasdaq futures briefly saw a push up thru yesterdays highs also, but currently are pulling back into the range 310.76 the corresponding futures high from yesterday evening

308.10 the pre mkt low

QQQ 3months, daily candles Slightly different look here with as the daily bounce continued up to test recent highs; even with interest rates rising yesterday after the strong retail sales report pre mkt. (resistance)

309.27 the high from yesterday

309.50 was last Wednesdays high

311.03

312.39-313.68 the recent highs (support)

304.20 the low from yesterday

302.52 the daily 12ema(white)

300.91

299.93

297.25

March Vix futures 3 months daily candles Testing recent lows from 2/1-2/2 here

Spot Vix 3 months, daily candles Loss of the last daily "higher low" here from 2/7 yesterday; bouncing some off yesterdays low so far today, back into the middle of that range

$DXY 3 months, daily candles Strong yesterday, sustaining over the 50 day MA (blue) so far today, after testing it earlier this AM

TLT weekly candles going back a bit over a year:

Weekly consolidation continues, looking for a weekly "higher low" above 99.35, the Dec. lowTLT 15 days, 4hr candles:

Watching to see if 4hr oversold RSI lines up into that area for a bounce attempt


https://www.briefing.com/stock-market-update [BRIEFING.COM] S&P futures vs fair value: -11.00. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: -43.00.The S&P 500 futures are down 11 points and are trading 0.3% below fair value. The Nasdaq 100 futures are down 43 points and are trading 0.3% below fair value. The Dow Jones Industrial Average futures are down 56 points and are trading 0.2% below fair value. Equity futures are modestly lower, likely driven by a lingering sense the market is due for a pullback. There has not been a lot of conviction to sell into the recent rally, though, as economic releases continue to come in better than expected and foster a belief in a soft landing/no landing scenario that has underpinned buying efforts. There has been remarkable strength in the crypto space recently and that has continued today with Bitcoin flirting with $25,000 and Ethereum pushing $1,700. The 2-yr note yield is unchanged at 4.60% and the 10-yr note yield is down two basis points to 3.79%. Market participants will receive the following economic data today:

  • 8:30 ET: January Housing Starts (Briefing.com consensus 1.355 mln; prior 1.382 mln), Building Permits (Briefing.com consensus 1.350 mln; prior 1.330 mln), January PPI (Briefing.com consensus 0.4%; prior -0.5%), Core PPI (Briefing.com consensus 0.3%; prior 0.1%), weekly Initial Claims (Briefing.com consensus 203,000; prior 196,000), Continuing Claims (prior 1.688 mln), and February Philadelphia Fed survey (Briefing.com consensus -8.0; prior -8.9)

  • 10:30 ET: Weekly natural gas inventories (prior -217 bcf) In corporate news:

  • Twilio (TWLO 75.61, +9.56, +14.5%): beats by $0.30, beats on revs; guides Q1 EPS above consensus, revs below consensus; authorizes $1.0 bln repurchase program

  • Roku (ROKU 71.36, +7.87, +12.4%): beats by $0.01, beats on revs; guides Q1 revs above consensus; upgraded to Neutral from Underweight at Atlantic Equities

  • RingCentral (RNG 43.25, -5.16, -10.7%): beats by $0.01, reports revs in-line; guides Q1 EPS above consensus, revs below consensus; guides FY23 EPS above consensus, revs below consensus; downgraded to In-line from Outperform at Evercore ISI

  • Cisco (CSCO 50.05, +1.60, +3.3%): beats by $0.02, beats on revs; guides Q3 EPS above consensus, revs above consensus; raises FY23 guidance; raises dividend 3%

  • Boston Beer Co (SAM 345.00, -47.91, -12.2%): reports Q4 (Dec) results, beats on revs; expects FY23 depletions and shipments to fall 2-8% yr/yr

  • Zillow (ZG 48.57, +1.91, +4.1%): beats by $0.15, beats on revs; guides Q1 revs in-line

  • Synopsys (SNPS 368.00, -11.48, -3.0%): beats by $0.13, reports revs in-line; guides Q2 EPS below consensus, revs below consensus; guides FY23 EPS above consensus, revs in-line

  • Shopify (SHOP 48.11, -5.28, -9.9%): beats by $0.09, beats on revs; disappoints with revenue outlook

  • Crocs (CROX 135.11, +9.44, +7.5%): beats by $0.42, beats on revs; guides Q1 EPS and revs above consensus; guides FY23 EPS above consensus, revs in-line



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