Market Rap 02/15/23 by CTG

SPY / QQQ / Vix

S&P futures trading in the middle of yesterdays range 412.76 the after hours high from yesterday, before futures opened

410 the pre mkt low

SPY 3 months, daily candles Another test of the 12ema(white) yesterday, another close above, as we probe the upper end of the recent range. Leaning towards a "lower high" being set against that range. Was yesterdays high that next "lower high"? Stay tuned. (resistance)

415.05

416.49-416.97

418.31 (support)

409.14 that 12ema

408.24-408.51 the lows from the past 2 days

405.01

402.35

400.03

396.01 the 50 day MA(blue)

QQQ 5 days, hourly candles Nasdaq futures trading in the upper half of yesterdays range 306.75 the after hours high from yesterday, before futures opened

304.50 the corresponding futures low

QQQ 3 months, daily candles The daily bounce saw continuation yesterday, after another test of the 12ema(white). Looking for a "lower high" against the recent highs. (resistance)

307.72 the high from yesterday

308.99-309.50

312.39-313.68 (support)

301.32 the 12ema(white)

300.91 the low from yesterday

299.93

297.25

292.30

290.66 the 200 day MA(purple)

March Vix futures 3 months, daily candles Vol crush yesterday after the CPI event risk was out of the way; Hanging out in the lower half of yesterdays range currently

March Vix futures 3 months, daily candles Vol crush yesterday after the CPI event risk was out of the way; Hanging out in the lower half of yesterdays range currently

Spot Vix 3 months, daily candles Big crush lower back thru 20 following the CPI data release. Hanging out in the lower end of that range still currently. Yesterday still found a daily "higher low" compared to the 2/7 low, so we'll see if it can pivot back upwards off that low.

$DXY 3 months, daily candles Dollar pushing back thru its 50 day MA(blue), heading up to test the recent highs

https://www.briefing.com/stock-market-update

[BRIEFING.COM] S&P futures vs fair value: -14.00. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: -38.00.The S&P 500 futures are down 13 points and are trading 0.3% below fair value. The Nasdaq 100 futures are down 41 points and are trading 0.3% below fair value. The Dow Jones Industrial Average futures are down 83 points and are trading 0.2% below fair value. Equity futures are modestly lower as investors await some market-moving economic data this morning, including retail sales and industrial production from January. Treasury yields are little changed in front of this morning's data releases, but the rise in rates recently has the market worried about valuation constraints and competition for stocks. The Biden Administration officially announced that Fed Vice Chair Brainard will lead the National Economic Council and Jared Bernstein will head the Council of Economic Advisors. The weekly MBA Mortgage Applications Index fell 7.7% with purchase applications declining 6.0% while refinancing applications fell 13.0%. Other data out today includes:

• 8:30 ET: January Retail Sales (Briefing.com consensus 1.7%; prior -1.1%), Retail Sales ex-auto (Briefing.com consensus 0.8%; prior -1.1%), and February Empire State Manufacturing Survey (Briefing.com consensus -19.0; prior -32.9)

• 9:15 ET: January Industrial Production (Briefing.com consensus 0.5%; prior -0.7%) and Capacity Utilization (Briefing.com consensus 79.1%; prior 78.8%)

• 10:00 ET: December Business Inventories (Briefing.com consensus 0.3%; prior 0.4%) and February NAHB Housing Market Index (Briefing.com consensus 37; prior 35)

• 10:30 ET: Weekly crude oil inventories (prior 2.42 mln)

• 16:00 ET: December net Long-Term TIC Flows (prior $171.5 bln) In corporate news:
  

• Analog Devices (ADI 192.38, +9.84, +5.4%): beats by $0.15, beats on revs; guides Q2 EPS above consensus, revs above consensus; declares dividend

• Kraft Heinz (KHC 39.51, -0.37, -0.9%): beats by $0.07, beats on revs; guides FY23 EPS below consensus

• Biogen (BIIB 294.99, +5.91, +2.0%): beats by $0.57, beats on revs; guides FY23 EPS in-line, guides FY23 revs below consensus

• TripAdvisor (TRIP 27.55, +2.42, +9.6%): beats by $0.12, beats on revs

• The Trade Desk (TTD 56.35, +6.43, +12.9%): beats by $0.02, reports revs in-line; guides Q1 revs above consensus

• Devon Energy (DVN 59.48, -4.46, -7.0%): misses by $0.09, reports revs in-line; raises fixed dividend 11%

• Airbnb (ABNB 132.25, +11.38, +9.4%): beats by $0.21, beats on revs, GBV grew 20% yr/yr; guides Q1 revs above consensus, anticipates slightly lower ADR yr/yr, Nights and Experiences Booked yr/yr growth to be nearly as strong as in Q4

• Paramount Global (PARA 23.00, +0.55, +2.5%) : Berkshire Hathaway increased position to ~93.64 mln shares from ~91.22 mln shares

• Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing (TSM 93.00, -4.96, -5.1%): Berkshire Hathaway decreased position to ~8.29 mln from ~60.06 mln