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Market Rap 01/31/23 by CTG

SPY 5 days, hourly candles S&P futures broke the lows from yesterday and last Thursday; Seeing some bounce attempt currently off the top of the hourly oversold RSI area 398.25 the pre mkt low

401.70 the corresponding futures high

SPY 3 months, daily candles Daily consolidation of this recent move underway. No red flags so far as bulls look to keep consolidation minimal and stay above the daily 12ema(white), or at minimum stay anywhere above the lows from 1/25 in order to maintain the uptrend on this timeframe. (support)

400.28 the low from yesterday, trading a tad below that level currently for the potential gap down open ahead

398.38 that daily 12ema

394.68 the 200 day MA(purple)

393.56 that last daily "higher low" from 1/25

393.38 the 50 day MA(blue) (resistance)

405.13 the high from yesterday



QQQ 5 days, hourly candles Nasdaq futures also broke yesterdays lows, trying to hold up around last Thursdays lows after peeking thru them a couple hours ago 287.84 the pre mkt low

291 the corresponding futures high

QQQ 3 months, daily candles Daily consolidation underway along with a loss of the 200 day MA(purple). Bulls would like to see consolidation stay minimal so there's no red flags - staying above the 12ema(white) would be ideal; staying anywhere above the 1/25 low a must in order to maintain the daily uptrend. (support)

289.89 the low from yesterday - trading under there currently for the small gap down open setting up


288.36 small open gap

287.87 the 150 day MA(orange)

285.71 the 12ema

281.18 the last daily "higher low" from 1/25 (resistance)

292.25 the 200 day MA


Feb. Vix futures 3 months, daily candles Another test of it's 12ema(white) and an upper wick of selling initially against that level. Thats the area thats contained every bounce, mostly (a small asterik for the 2nd half of Dec.).

Spot Vix 3 months, daily candles Daily bounce underway, seeing some follow thru today as this pushes back above the 20 level. 50 day MA(blue) sits at 21.17, and that 50 day MA area has contained all bounces since it convincingly lost it back at the end of October '22.

TLT 3 months, daily candles Tightening up ahead of the FOMC tomorrow, right around it's 12ema(white).

[BRIEFING.COM] S&P futures vs fair value: -9.50. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: -47.00.The S&P 500 futures are down 10 points and are trading 0.2% below fair value. The Nasdaq 100 futures are down 50 points and are trading 0.4% below fair value. The Dow Jones Industrial Average futures are down 125 points and are trading 0.4% below fair value. The stock market is poised for a lower open, carrying over yesterday's downside momentum. This morning's weakness is partially due to a softer response to earnings news, along with a continued sense that the market got ahead of itself and is due for a pullback. Market participants are also staying cautious in front of Wednesday's FOMC decision and key economic data and notable earnings reports later in the week. The IMF raised its global growth forecast for the year to 2.9% from 2.7%; however, that still reflects a decline from 3.4% growth in 2022. Separately, China's Manufacturing and Non-Manufacturing PMI readings returned to expansionary territory (i.e., above-50 readings) for the first time since September. Treasury yields are moving lower this morning. The 2-yr note yield is down two basis points to 4.24% and the 10-yr note yield is down three basis points to 3.52%. The U.S. Dollar Index is up 0.2% to 102.44. Energy complex futures continue to lose ground. WTI crude oil futures are down 1.0% to $77.16/bbl and natural gas futures are down 1.7% to $2.63/mmbtu. Market participants will receive the following economic data today:

  • 8:30 a.m. ET: January Chicago PMI ( consensus 45.4; prior 44.9), Q4 Employment Cost Index ( consensus 1.1%; prior 1.2%)

  • 9:00 a.m. ET: November FHFA Housing Price Index (prior 0.0%), November S&P Case-Shiller Home Price Index ( consensus 6.8%; prior 8.6%)

  • 10:00 a.m. ET: December Consumer Confidence ( consensus 108.1; prior 108.3)

  • General Motors (GM 37.88, +1.59, +4.4%): beats by $0.44, beats on revs; guides FY23 EPS above consensus

  • Pfizer (PFE 42.25, -1.30, -3.0%): beats by $0.10, reports revs in-line; guides FY23 EPS below consensus, revs below consensus

  • Caterpillar (CAT 254.05, -7.45, -2.9%): misses by $0.17, beats on revs

  • McDonald's (MCD 265.48, -5.41, -2.0%): beats by $0.13, beats on revs; US comps +10.3%

  • Exxon Mobil (XOM 112.40, -1.16, -1.0%): beats by $0.12, beats on revs

  • UPS (UPS 180.89, +3.92, +2.2%): beats by $0.03, misses on revs; guides FY23 revs below consensus

  • Whirlpool (WHR 157.00, +3.46, +2.3%): beats by $0.60, reports revs in-line; guides midpoint FY23 EPS above consensus, revs above consensus

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