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Market Rap 01/26/23 by CTG

SPY / QQQ / Vix

SPY 5 days, hourly candles S&P futures testing the recent highs from Monday, as we shape up for the gap up open 402.96 the pre mkt high so far

399.73 the after hours low from yesterday before futures opened

SPY 3 months, daily candles Daily consolidation stopped just short of the 50 day MA(blue) yesterday, before reversing to test recent highs and close back above the 200 day MA (purple). (support)

395.25 the 200 day MA

395.10 the daily 12ema(white)

393.56 the low from yesterday

393.01 the 50 day MA

390.51 the 150 day MA(orange)

387.26 the last daily "higher low" (resistance)

400.70 the high from yesterday - trading above there now for the gap up set up

402.65 the high from Monday - also starting to peek thru that level



QQQ 5 days, hourly candles Nasdaq futures also testing/starting to push thru recent highs 290.88 the pre mkt high so far

287 the after hours low from yesterday before futures opened

QQQ 3 months, daily candles The next round of daily consolidation got underway here yesterday also, and paused/reversed at the 12ema(white) - which has provided support for all pullbacks so far this year, after price pushed above that level on 1/6. (support)

281.18 the low from yesterday

280.90 the daily 12ema

279.18 the 50 day MA(blue)


273.89 the last daily "higher low" (resistance)

288.36 the high from yesterday - trading above there currently for the gap up open

290.21 Mondays high - trading right around that level currently

293 the 200 day MA(purple)


Feb. Vix futures 3 months, daily candles Starting to peek thru to new lows, pushed right back into "oversold" territory on the daily timeframe

Spot Vix 3 months, daily candles Unable to get back above/stay above that 20 level, which is an encouraging sign for broad market equity bulls [BRIEFING.COM] S&P futures vs fair value: +19.00. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: +112.30.The S&P 500 futures are up 19 points and are trading 0.5% above fair value. The Nasdaq 100 futures are up 111 points and are trading 0.9% above fair value. The Dow Jones Industrial Average futures are up 41 points and are trading 0.1% above fair value. Equity futures indicate a higher open following Tesla's (TSLA) earnings report, which is driving a continued rebound effort in the mega cap space and bolstering the broader market on a busy earnings reporting day. Investors are also anticipating the potentially market-moving advanced Q4 GDP reading and weekly initial claims data at 8:30 a.m. ET, cognizant that they may have implications for the Fed's rate hike path. Treasury yields are inching higher ahead of the release. The 2-yr note yield is up one basis point to 4.15% and the 10-yr note yield is up two basis points to 3.48%. The U.S. Dollar Index is up 0.1% to 101.75. Energy complex futures are mixed. WTI crude oil futures are up 1.3% to $81.16/bbl and natural gas futures are down 4.5% to $2.78/mmbtu. Today's data releases include:

  • 8:30 a.m. ET: Advance Q4 GDP ( consensus 2.6%; prior 3.2%), advance Q4 Chain Deflator ( consensus 3.2%; prior 4.4%), December Durable Orders ( consensus 2.9%; prior -2.1%), Durable Orders ex-transportation ( consensus -0.2%; prior 0.2%), weekly Initial Claims ( consensus 205,000; prior 190,000), Continuing Claims (prior 1.647 mln), December advance goods trade deficit (prior -$83.30 bln), December advance Retail Inventories (prior -0.3%), and December advance Wholesale Inventories (prior 1.0%)

  • 10:00 ET: December New Home Sales ( consensus 614,000; prior 640,000)

  • 10:30 ET: Weekly natural gas inventories (prior -82 bcf)

In corporate news:

  • Tesla (TLSA 154.36, +9.93, +6.9%): beats by $0.08, reports revs in-line, automotive gross margin down 466 bps yr/yr, guides for 1.8 mln vehicles in FY23, which is ahead of its long-term 50% CAGR target; thus far in January it has seen the strongest orders YTD in its history

  • Sherwin-Williams (SHW 224.85, -22.24, -9.0%): beats by $0.04, reports revs in-line; guides FY23 EPS below consensus, revs below consensus

  • Southwest Airlines (LUV 36.02, -0.85, -2.3%): misses by $0.27, reports revs in-line; guides Q1 revs below consensus; Dept of Transportation is probing scheduling meltdown, according to WSJ

  • Northrop Grumman (NOC 468.00, +4.71, +1.0%): beats by $0.93, beats on revs; guides FY23 revs above consensus

  • IBM (IBM 137.93, -2.83, -2.0%): misses by $0.01, beats on revs; announced it will cut about 3,900 jobs, or roughly 1.5% of its workforce, according to Bloomberg

  • Dow (DOW 56.22, -1.67, -2.9%): misses by $0.11, misses on revs

  • Chevron (CVX 184.93, +5.85, +3.3%): authorizes $75 bln stock repurchase program and increases quarterly divided by 6% to $1.51/share

  • Lam Research (LRCX 481.85, -6.55, -1.3%): beats by $0.71, beats on revs; guides Q3 EPS below consensus, revs below consensus

  • Comcast (CMCSA 39.70, -0.40, -1.0%): beats by $0.04, reports revs in-line; increases quarterly dividend to $0.29 from $0.27/share

  • ServiceNow (NOW 442.00, -6.77, -1.5%): beats by $0.26, reports revs in-line

  • STMicroelectronics (STM 45.09, +1.76, +4.1%): beats by $0.22, beats on revs; guides Q1 revs above consensus

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