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Market Rap 01/19/23 by CTG

SPY / QQQ / Vix

SPY 5 days, hourly candles and 15 days, 4hr candles S&P futures broke yesterdays lows overnight, and are currently in falling knife mode and deeply oversold on the hourly RSI. 4hr RSI still has some room until oversold conditions. 391.71 the corresponding futures high

388.27 the pre mkt low so far

SPY 3 months, daily candles and 1yr daily candles (check out all the times we've rejected hard around the 200 day MA over the past year - more of the same bear action to follow, or is this time different?) Lost the 200 day MA(purple) and went down and tested the 50 day MA(blue) as daily consolidation got underway in earnest on heavy volume, wiping out the last 4 prior days of gains. Gap down open setting up with the daily "higher low" test coming into view quickly.(support)

391.28 the low from yesterday - trading well under there currently for the gap down open ahead

390.65 fills the small open gap

389.67 the 150 day MA(orange) - under there as well

386.27 the last daily "higher low" and spot for bulls to stay above to keep the uptrend intact on this timeframe (resistance)

391.31 the 12ema(white) back overhead

391.43 the 50 day MA back overhead

396.60 the 200 day MA(purple)


The S&P being weighed down by 2 of it's bigger sectors, healthcare and financials -XLV losing support and starting to fall into a light volume profile area

XLF rejecting at recent resistance from the past 3months

QQQ 5 days, hourly candles Nasdaq futures also flushing yesterdays lows, just now getting oversold on the hourly timeframe. 4hr still has room for more selling; so far this has held up better than the S&P after this consolidation began yesterday. 275.07 the pre mkt low so far

278.09 the corresponding futures high

QQQ 3 months, daily candles Daily consolidation underway here as well as it sold off all the way back to the 50 day MA(blue); setting up to gap down open below that level with the 12ema(white) test coming into view. Still lots of room for bulls to find a daily "higher low" and defend the uptrend on this timeframe. (support)

277.67 the low from yesterday - trading well under there currently for the gap down open set up

274.85 the daily 12ema


272.94 small open gap

268.97 the last daily "higher low" and spot for bulls to stay anywhere above on this consolidation, in order to defend that uptrend (resistance)

277.68 the 50 day MA back overhead

284.69 the high from yesterday

Feb. Vix futures 3 months, daily candles Daily "oversold" bounce here finally got underway yesterday with follow thru today, as it heads up to test that 12ema(white) spot that it's paused at over the past few months after bounces. Will this time be different, with a sustained move over/thru that level? Or does it back down sometime in the next few days around here once again? Stay tuned.

Spot Vix 3months, daily candles Bounce underway here as well, as it heads up to test it's 50 day MA; THE level that's contained these bounces over the past 3months (ever since it was decisively lost back at the end of October)

Watching that 50 day MA area around 22ish to see if that changes this time around. [BRIEFING.COM] S&P futures vs fair value: -35.00. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: -107.00.The S&P 500 futures are down 33 points and are trading 0.9% below fair value. The Nasdaq 100 futures are down 107 points and are trading 0.9% below fair value. The Dow Jones Industrial Average futures are down 271 points and are trading 0.8% below fair value. Equity futures indicate a lower open for the stock market, carrying over yesterday's downside momentum. Recession and Fed rate hikes fears continue to plague in front of slate of economic data this morning. Weekly initial jobless claims, December Housing Starts and Building Permits, and the January Philadelphia Fed Index will be released at 8:30 a.m. ET. Piling onto the renewed rate hike concerns, JPMorgan CEO Jamie Dimon told CNBC in an interview “I think there’s a lot of underlying inflation, which won’t go away so quick,” adding that he thinks rates will top 5.0%. Also, many names that reported quarterly results since yesterday's close are trading down this morning. The 2-yr Treasury note yield is unchanged at 4.10% and the 10-yr note yield is up two basis points to 3.40%. Energy complex futures trade in mixed fashion. WTI crude oil futures are down 0.8% to $78.85/bbl and natural gas futures are up 1.0% to $3.14/mmbtu. In corporate news:

  • Alcoa (AA 50.20, -3.25, -6.1%): reports EPS in-line, misses on revs; projects 2023 total alumina shipments of 12.7-12.9 mln metric tons; aluminum shipments between 2.5-2.6 mln metric tons

  • Discover Financial Services (DFS 94.85, -7.49, -7.3%): beats by $0.06, beats on revs

  • Fastenal (FAST 47.08, -0.46, -1.0%): raises quarterly dividend to $0.35 per share from $0.31 prior; beats by $0.01, beats on revs

  • Fifth Third (FITB 32.72, 0.00, 0.0%): beats by $0.01; issues guidance for Q4 (Dec), issues in-line guidance for FY23 (Dec)

  • Procter & Gamble (PG 142.48, -3.02, -2.1%): reports EPS in-line, revs in-line; reaffirms FY23 EPS guidance; raises FY23 revenue guidance

  • Truist (TFC 45.33, -0.41, -0.9%): beats by $0.02

  • Charles Schwab (SCHW 79.06, -2.32, -2.9%): downgraded to Underperform from Buy at Bank of America

  • Philip Morris (PM 99.60, +0.34, +0.3%): upgraded to Buy from Hold at Jefferies

  • Apple (AAPL 133.60, -1.61, -1.2%): ticking lower on news it is looking to expand its smart-home lineup, aimed at challenging Amazon (AMZN) and Google (GOOG), according to Bloomberg

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