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Market Rap 01/18/23 by CTG

SPY / QQQ / Vix

SPY 5 days, hourly candles S&P futures pushing the upper end of yesterdays range, after breaking the lower end yesterday evening 399.30 the corresponding futures high

396.44the corresponding futures low

SPY 3 months, daily candles Yesterdays follow thru couldn't sustain, and we went back to test the 200 day MA(purple) from above. Break yesterdays low today then we start daily consolidation, and watch to see how deep/or shallow that looks, in the context of a daily uptrend. (resistance)

400.23 the high from yesterday

405.50

410.49 (support)

397.06 the low from yesterday

396.90 the 200 day MA

391.38-393.34 the bottom of the volume profile support area

391.02 the 50 day MA(blue)

390.65 small open gap

389.56 the 150 day MA(orange)

386.27 the last daily "higher low" and spot for the bulls to stay anywhere above once daily consolidation begins

QQQ 5 days, hourly candles Nasdaq futures testing yesterdays upper end of the range 282.89 the corresponding futures high

280.38 the corresponding futures low

QQQ 3 months, daily candles Follow thru upwards to a test of the biggest chunk of volume profile from the past 3 months (resistance)

282.85 the high from yesterday

283.01

283.19 small open gap

287.47 the 150 day MA(orange)

291.41 (support)

279.58 the low from yesterday

277.33 the 50 day MA(blue)

276.16

274.30 the daily 12ema(white)

273.12

272.94 small open gap

268.97 the last daily "higher low" and spot for bulls to stay anywhere above once daily consolidation begins

February Vix futures 3 months, daily candles Yesterdays attempt to hold the lows fading back to another test of those lows. In the very short term this is "oversold" and due for some type of a mean reversion, but it can also hang out in oversold territory until the broad market starts it's daily consolidation.

Spot Vix 3 months, daily candles The gap up open Monday faded to fill the gap; now peeking under yesterdays lows here

https://www.briefing.com/stock-market-update [BRIEFING.COM] S&P futures vs fair value: +12.00. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: +43.00.The S&P 500 futures are up 12 points and are trading 0.3% above fair value. The Nasdaq 100 futures are up 41 points and are trading 0.4% above fair value. The Dow Jones Industrial Average futures are up 58 points and are trading 0.2% above fair value. The stock market looks poised for a higher open, but the positive bias is modest in scope as earnings season progresses. Market participants are also eyeing the December Producer Price Index that will be released at 8:30 a.m. ET. The Japanese yen fell sharply against the dollar after the Bank of Japan maintained its ultra-loose policy against some expectations that the yield targets could be changed. The U.S. Dollar Index is down 0.3% to 102.08 with USD/JPY +0.7% to 129.08. European Central Bank policymaker Villeroy de Galhau pushed back against earlier reports that the ECB is apt to reduce the size of its rate hikes at the policy meeting in March. He added that inflation is expected to return to target by 2025. Treasury yields are noticeably lower this morning. The 2-yr note yield is down three basis points to 4.16% and the 10-yr note yield is down seven basis points to 3.47%. The weekly MBA Mortgage Applications Index jumped 27.9% with purchase applications rising 25% and refinancing applications increasing 34%. Other data releases today include:

  • 8:30 ET: December PPI (Briefing.com consensus -0.1%; prior 0.3%), Core PPI (Briefing.com consensus 0.1%; prior 0.4%), Retail Sales (Briefing.com consensus -0.8%; prior -0.6%), and Retail Sales ex-auto (Briefing.com consensus -0.5%; prior -0.2%)

  • 9:15 ET: December Industrial Production (Briefing.com consensus -0.1%; prior -0.2%) and Capacity Utilization (Briefing.com consensus 79.6%; prior 79.7%)

  • 10:00 ET: November Business Inventories (Briefing.com consensus 0.4%; prior 0.3%) and January NAHB Housing Market Index (Briefing.com consensus 31; prior 31)

  • 14:00 ET: January Fed Beige Book

  • 16:00 ET: November net Long-Term TIC Flows (prior $67.80 bln)


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