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Market Rap 01/17/23 by CTG

SPY / QQQ / Vix

SPY 5 days, hourly candles S&P futures pulled back some from Fridays highs; still trading in the upper third of Fridays range 398.70 the after hours high from Friday

396.38 the corresponding futures low found early AM Monday morning


SPY 3 months, daily candles and 3yr, weekly candles A push and close above the 200 day MA(purple) - a level it hasn't been able to stay above long over the past year, watching to see how it reacts to that this week. Daily uptrend in play, heading up to test the last weekly "lower highs" from late November/early December. Whenever daily consolidation of this move does begin, we'll see if the tone of the sell off changes to quick and sharp with V recoveries; or if we continue the bear market action of straight down for a week with full bear control.

(resistance)

399.10 the high from Friday

405.50

410.49 the last weekly "lower high"

(support)

397.21 the 200 day MA

393.34 the low from Friday

391.38-392.42

390.65 small open gap

390.57 the 50 day MA(blue)

390.10 the 12ema(white)

389.51 the 150 day MA(orange)

386.27 the last daily "higher low" and spot for bulls to stay anywhere above once consolidation begins, to keep the uptrend in their favor


QQQ 5 days, hourly candles Nasdaq futures going sideways in the upper third of Fridays range also 281.01 the after hours high from Friday

278.50ish the corresponding futures low from Monday early AM

QQQ 3 months, daily candles Daily uptrend continues with another close above the 50 day MA(blue) after briefly falling back thru Friday morning. Testing the biggest chunk of volume profile from the past 3 months.

(resistance)

281.22 the high from Friday

283.01

283.19 small open gap

287.52 the 150 day MA(orange)

291.41

(support)

277.02 the 50 day MA

276.16 the low from Friday

273.12-273.74

272.98 the daily 12ema(white)

272.94 small open gap

268.97 the last daily "higher low" and spot for bulls to stay anywhere above once daily consolidation begins, in order to keep control of the uptrend on this timeframe


February Vix futures 3 months, daily candles Lifting off Fridays depressed levels, inside bar day so far

Spot Vix 3 months, daily candles New 1year lows found Friday with an 18.01 print; Its been since of April of '22 since we've seen it that low.

Gapping back up to the 20 psychological area to start the week.


https://www.briefing.com/stock-market-update [BRIEFING.COM] S&P futures vs fair value: -13.50. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: -54.80.The S&P 500 futures are down 12 points and are trading 0.3% below fair value. The Nasdaq 100 futures are down 48 points and are trading 0.5% below fair value. The Dow Jones Industrial Average futures are down 125 points and are trading 0.4% below fair value. There's a negative bias in the equity futures market after a big run recently. Entering today, the S&P 500, Nasdaq, and Dow are up 4.2%, 5.9%, and 3.5%, respectively, so far in 2023. In addition, earnings reports this morning are receiving mixed reactions from market participants. The IMF's Managing Director Kristalina Georgieva told CNBC in an interview "...we expect growth to bottom out this year and 2024 to be a year in which we finally see the world economy on an upside." China's Q4 GDP came in better than feared at 0.0% quarter/quarter versus an expected 0.8% decline. Treasury yields are inching higher. The 2-yr note yield is up three basis points to 4.25%. The 10-yr note yield is up six basis points to 3.57%. The U.S. Dollar Index is down 0.1% to 102.12. WTI crude oil futures are up 0.6% to $80.33/bbl and natural gas futures are up 5.9% to $3.83/mmbtu. In corporate news:

  • Citizens Financial Group (CFG 41.47, -0.25, -0.6%): reports EPS in-line, misses on revs

  • Morgan Stanley (MS 92.65, +0.99, +1.1%): misses by $0.05, beats on revs

  • Goldman Sachs (GS 365.30, -8.70, -2.3%): misses by $2.45, misses on revs

  • Silvergate Capital (SI 13.66, +0.46, +3.5%): misses by $0.21; to substantively reduce its workforce - to cut workforce by ~40%; also expects $196 mln impairment charge

  • Mohawk (MHK 112.25, -6.40, -5.4%): provides litigation updates; sees Q4 EPS below consensus

  • Natl Instruments (NATI 54.05, +7.08, +15.1%): Emerson (EMR) submitted a proposal to acquire NI for $53 per share in cash at an implied enterprise value of $7.6 bln

  • Tesla (TSLA 125.07, +2.67, +2.2%): Indonesia nearing EV deal with Tesla, according to Reuters

  • Pfizer (PFE 47.19, -0.66, -1.4%): downgraded to Equal Weight from Overweight

  • Church & Dwight (CHD 82.99, +1.08, +1.3%): upgraded to Overweight from Equal Weight at Morgan Stanley


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