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Market Rap 01/10 /23 by CTG

SPY / QQQ / Vix

SPY 5 days, hourly candles S&P futures continued the weakness from the second half of yesterdays trading. An early AM bounce attempt paused, and now we're seeing further weakness and a break of yesterday evening's futures lows. Currently back testing Friday's break out area from the sideways trading range we've seen since mid December. 387.95 the after hours high from yesterday before futures opened

385.81 the pre mkt low so far

SPY 3 months, daily candles Yesterday saw follow thru from Fridays breakout over the recent range we've been stuck in since mid-December, and got over the 50 day MA(blue)/150 day MA(orange); but after the bears came out in the 2nd half of the day we closed under both those levels. Further weakness in futures action has us setting up for a gap down open, as we backtest the top of that Friday breakout area. (support)

387.67 the low from yesterday, trading under there currently as we set up for the gap down open

384.58 the 12ema (white)



374.77 (resistance)

389.73 that 50 day MA

389.90 the 150 day MA

393.70 the high from yesterday

QQQ 5 days, hourly candles Nasdaq futures also saw continued weakness and back testing the breakout area from Friday 268.37 the pre mkt low

270.99 the pre mkt high

QQQ 3 months, daily candles Strong follow thru in the AM turned into an inverted hammer candle by the close, after we pushed up to test the last "lower high" from 12/21, briefly got over, then reversed before the 50 day MA (blue). (support)

269.92 the low from yesterday, trading under there currently as a small gap down open shapes up

268.09 the daily 12ema


259.08-259.73 (resistance)


276.95 that 50 day MA

January Vix futures 3 months, daily candles Any recent bounce attempts being rejected by the daily 12ema (white) so watching for any change of that look to see if the bears are going to get more aggressive in the broad market

Spot Vix 3 months, daily candles Bounce attempts here have been rejected by the 50 day MA (blue) for the last few weeks, so watching that guide for any changes in the broad market [BRIEFING.COM] S&P futures vs fair value: -18.30. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: -72.30.The S&P 500 futures are down 18 points and are trading 0.5% below fair value. The Nasdaq 100 futures are down 72 points and are trading 0.6% below fair value. The Dow Jones Industrial Average futures are down 153 points and are trading 0.4% below fair value. There's a negative disposition in the equity futures market following yesterday's disappointing finish as enthusiasm seen after Friday's jobs report and ISM Non-Manufacturing Index unwinds. Market participants may be more cautious ahead of Fed Chair Powell's speech today at 9:00 a.m. ET, although it's unclear if he will make any remarks about the Fed's rate hike path since the speech is titled "Central Bank Independence." Tokyo's year/year CPI rate (+4.0%) accelerated to its fastest pace in 42 years in the December reading. Treasury yields are on the rise this morning. The 2-yr note yield is up five basis points to 4.25% and the 10-yr note yield id up five basis points to 3.57%. The U.S. Dollar Index is inching higher, up 0.4% to 103.42. Energy complex futures trade in mixed fashion. WTI crude oil futures are up 0.5% to $74.98/bbl and natural gas futures are down 3.3% to $3.44/mmbtu. The NFIB Small Business Optimism survey fell to 89.9 in December from 91.9 in November. Market participants will receive November Wholesale Inventories (prior +0.5%) at 10:00 a.m. ET. In corporate news:

  • Coinbase Global (COIN 37.52, -0.75, -2.0%): discloses that FY22 Adjusted EBITDA is expected to be within the negative $500 mln loss guardrail that the company provided in the shareholder letter; also announces further restructuring plan; will eliminate 950 jobs; Oppenheimer maintains Outperform rating

  • Sotera Health (SHC 13.60, +4.96, +57.4%): Announces Settlement of Ethylene Oxide Litigation in Illinois; reaffirms FY22 guidance at J.P. Morgan Healthcare Conference

  • Oak Street Health (OSH 30.50, +7.93, +35.1%): CVS (CVS) mulling acquisition of Oak Street Health (OSH), according to Bloomberg; guides FY22 revs above consensus; FY23 revs in-line

  • Boeing (BA 202.37, -6.20, -3.0%): downgraded to Equal Weight from Overweight at Morgan Stanley

  • AT&T (T 19.21, +0.17, +0.9%): upgraded to Overweight from Equal Weight at Wells Fargo

  • Royal Caribbean (RCL 57.45, +0.16, +0.3%): upgraded to Equal Weight from Underweight at Morgan Stanley

  • Microsoft (MSFT 225.99, -1.13, -0.5%): in discussions to invest $10 bln in Open AI, according to Bloomberg

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