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Market Rap 01/04/23 by CTG

SPY / QQQ / Vix

SPY 5 days, hourly candles S&P futures trading in the middle of yesterdays range 383.09 the corresponding futures high

380.16 the after hours low from yesterday before futures opened

SPY 3months, daily candles Choppy action in the range from the last 2 weeks continues. A push over the 12ema (white) was sold immediately after the open.


383.97 that 12ema

386.43 the high from yesterday

387.41 the last daily "lower high"

387.89 small open gap

389.35 the 50 day MA (blue)


377.83 the low from yesterday




QQQ 5 days, hourly candles Nasdaq futures trading in the middle of yesterdays range as well 267.01 the corresponding futures high

263.94 the after hours ow from yesterday before futures opened

QQQ 3 months, daily candles A test of the 12ema (white) yesterday was turned back after the open also. Bears just waiting on the next daily "lower high" to be set, and continuation of the daily downtrend. (resistance)

269.01 that daily 12ema

270.15 the high from yesterday

274.78 the last daily "lower high"

277.94 the 50 day MA (blue) (support)

262.13 the low from yesterday


254.26 THE low from October

Jan. Vix futures and Spot Vix 3 months, daily candles Choppy, muddy, muted action in the Vix complex continued into the the new year

TLT 3 months, daily candles Daily bounce underway and back over the 50 day MA (blue) as longer term rates back off to start the new year. 12ema (white) provided an initial resistance rejection yesterday, but pushing over that level here in pre mkt action.

$DXY 3 months, daily candles The dollar started the year strong and pushed over it's 12ema (white), but has given back about half of that move currently, and is back under that level again by a tad. [BRIEFING.COM] S&P futures vs fair value: +6.80. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: +42.30.The S&P 500 futures are up 6 points and are trading 0.2% above fair value. The Nasdaq 100 futures are up 38 points and are trading 0.4% above fair value. The Dow Jones Industrial Average futures are up 48 points and are trading 0.1% above fair value. There's a positive bias in the equity futures market on this final day of the Santa Claus rally period. Some bargain hunting activity and nice gains in the mega cap space, except Microsoft (MSFT) sporting losses on a downgrade at UBS, are fueling the upside moves. The S&P 500 stood at 3,822 when this year's Santa Claus rally period began and yesterday's close brought the index just a whisker above that level (3,824). Encouraging inflation data out of Europe, including Germany's November Import Price Index and France's December Consumer Price Index, also helps to boost investor sentiment this morning. These reports play into the peak inflation narrative, which may be driving Treasury yields lower. The 2-yr note yield is down two basis points to 4.35% and the 10-yr note yield is down nine basis points to 3.69%. The U.S. Dollar Index is down 0.4% to 104.13. Energy complex futures continue to suffer losses. WTI crude oil futures are down 3.4% to $74.33/bbl and natural gas futures are down 0.1% to $3.64/mmbtu. The MBA Mortgage Applications Index for the week ending December 31 fell 13.2% from two weeks earlier with purchase applications declining 12.2% and refinancing applications falling 16.3%. Other data out today includes:

  • 10:00 a.m. ET: December ISM Manufacturing Index ( consensus 48.5%; prior 49.0%)

  • 10:00 a.m. ET: November JOLTS Job Openings (prior 10.334 million)

  • 2:00 p.m. ET: FOMC Minutes for the December 13-14

In corporate news:

  • Tesla (TSLA 109.15, +1.05, +1.0%): Cathie Wood (ARKK) purchased more shares of Tesla (TSLA), according to Bloomberg

  • Goldman Sachs (GS 346.60, +0.38, +0.1%): downgraded to Peer Perform from Outperform at Wolfe Research

  • Microsoft (MSFT 234.24, -5.34, -2.2%): downgraded to Neutral from Buy at UBS

  • Salesforce (CRM 139.11, +4.33, +3.2%): announced a restructuring plan that includes a reduction of current workforce by ~10%

  • Alibaba (BABA 97.86, +5.88, +6.4%): Ant Financial secures approval for $1.5 bln capital plan, according to Bloomberg

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